XRP falls 7%, but ETF launch sets the stage for potential reversal above $2.36

The brutal drop breaks through the psychological $2.30 floor and erases recent gains as circulation dwarfs the historic XRPC debut.

news background

XRP’s worst intraday drop in recent weeks coincided with a major industry milestone. It was the launch of Canary Capital’s XRPC, the first spot XRP ETF in the U.S., which officially went into effect on the Nasdaq as of 5:30 p.m. ET. The listing marks a turning point for institutional access to XRP, but its debut comes as the broader crypto market extends a medium-term downtrend.

emotions are still fixed fear As the macro risk-off trend continues. Analysts, including FxPro’s Alex Kupczykevich, have warned that the crypto situation still resembles a “short-term rebound within a deep decline” and that the market structure is vulnerable to a deeper retracement. Large token flows reflect that caution, with XRP on-chain data showing 110.5 million tokens moved between unknown wallets in the hours before and after the outage, amplifying uncertainty during times of peak volatility.

Overview of price fluctuations

XRP fell 7.3% from $2.48 to $2.30 in 24 hours of trading, cutting through the key support levels of $2.46, $2.40, and $2.36. The decline was a blistering $0.23, and the transaction amount was 157.9 million XRP, 46% above the 24-hour average.

The core breakdown unfolded during a four-minute liquidation cascade from 04:32 to 04:35 UTC, where the price plummeted from $2.313 to $2.295 on 6.6 million XRP volume, 254% above baseline. The one-minute spike of 4.06 million at 04:32 marked the selling climax of the session. Liquidity temporarily evaporated as trading leveled off between 04:35 and 04:36, indicating either that order flow had stopped or that there was a severe book decline.

Attempts to stabilize above $2.31 failed, and XRP settled into a narrow consolidation around $2.30 to $2.32.

technical analysis

This session confirmed a complete technical failure with obvious structural damage.

Support/Resistance:
• $2.29–$2.30 Becomes the main support after breaking through the psychological nadir
• Previous support $2.36, $2.40and $2.47 Now works as a stacked resistor
• Nullification of bulls requires decisive recovery of rights. $2.36

Volume profile:
• Total session volume 157.9 million (+46%) Check the distribution at educational institution level
• Show disassembly sequence 254% Hourly volume spike, typical liquidation-driven movement
• No meaningful recovery volumes were visible during post-crash consolidation.

Chart structure:
• Descending triangle support failed definitively, invalidating previous inversion setup
• A new lower range is formed between $2.29–$2.33
• The breakdown is consistent with the medium-term downward trend of broader crypto indexes

Momentum indicator:
• Oversold signals are emerging during the day, but no trend reversal is confirmed.
• Breakdown occurs below major EMA. 50D/200D cross remains bearish

What traders should pay attention to

XRP is currently at a pivotal inflection point.

• Holds $2.29 is essential — failure exposes a rapid transition to: $2.00–$2.20 demand zone
• Any recovery must be reused first $2.36 Before the bull regains technical control
• ETF inflows act as a catalyst for subsequent volatility. Initial XRPC volumes while the market is open will indicate whether financial institutions treat the listing as an accumulation opportunity or a liquidity event.
• On-chain flow 110.5 million XRP Whale transfers remain a wildcard – currency inflows will underpin further downside risks
• Sentiment remains fragile across the majors. Beta-sensitive assets like XRP react disproportionately to broad market downturns