Grayscale analysts believe that although the current situation is unpleasant, the price of Bitcoin could reach an all-time high in the first half of 2026. The price of Bitcoin has plummeted to $86,000, sentiment is extremely negative, and the fear streak is the longest in history.
However, Grayscale’s latest research argues that institutional demand and increased regulatory clarity in the US are quietly reshaping the medium- to long-term outlook for Bitcoin’s price trend.
At the moment, the price of Bitcoin appears to be depressed on the surface. The oversold indicator is flashing at levels last seen right at the bottom of the 2019 bear market. It doesn’t guarantee a quick recovery, but it does indicate that the market is nervous. Grayscale considers this phase a transitional period, especially when viewed on Bitcoin’s higher time frames.
2026 = New ATH potential, end of 4-year cycle, deeper integration of public blockchains into global finance.
Fasten the buckle.
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) December 15, 2025
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Grayscale perspective and political influence on the Bitcoin price cycle
According to Grayscale analysts, Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle may not hold true in the same way going forward. The increased exposure of spot ETPs and institutional investors has changed liquidity behavior and allowed trends to develop more slowly. This helps explain why Bitcoin price is likely to hit new highs in 2026 without the explosive, euphoric explosions seen in earlier cycles.
Political and macro commentary are also reflected in the very same story. El Salvador’s President Nayib Boucle and his questioning of why the government collects taxes when it can print unlimited money reaffirms Bitcoin’s value proposition as a scarce asset and a hedge against inflation.
Why do we need taxes if we can print unlimited money? ” Bukele on taxes
At the same time, US President Donald Trump said he would consider a possible pardon for the privacy-minded CEO of Samurai Wallet, bringing new attention to financial privacy and decentralization.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says he will consider pardoning the CEO of privacy-focused Bitcoin wallet Samourai.
“I’ve heard of it. I’ll take a look.” pic.twitter.com/WfpLPYOlfj
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 15, 2025
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Bitcoin price macro level is more important than sentiment
Despite these long-term positives, the short-term structure is quite clear. As long as Bitcoin price stays below the $104,000 level, nothing that could be mistaken for a true trend reversal should occur.
why? Any movement below that zone is corrective in nature. Squeezes, relief rallies, and short-term pullbacks often create more illusion than substance. Only if the weekly close is cleanly above $104,000 can the outlook change significantly.
The most important area now is the macro support zone at the bottom of the range. This $70,000 level is what maintains the weekly and monthly Bitcoin price trend. If this area fails, the whole scenario will change and we would expect a much more defensive positioning next time.
(sauce – Bitcoin price chart, TradingView)
However, grayscale Bitcoin predictions emphasize patience over excitement. This is not a market to go crazy at the pump or panic during a decline. Macro contexts require discipline, clear level-based thinking, and respect for structure.
When trading, it makes more sense to trade on shorter time frames where risk can be controlled and nullification is obvious.
The fear is extreme, the emotions are heavy, and the price of Bitcoin feels uncomfortable. Historically, that combination was important. Grayscale argues that Bitcoin trends will only become reality if the market proves them. Don’t believe in a single green or red candle this time.
Discover: The next 10+ coins to increase by 100x in 2025
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Saylor’s MSTR stock takes a hit as Bitcoin plummets: How far will Bitcoin fall?
by
Bitcoin’s recent selloff was another reminder to investors of how traditional stocks tied to cryptocurrencies fluctuate in tandem with Bitcoin’s price. As the Bitcoin cryptocurrency has retreated from its recent highs, Strategy stock has been on a near-to-second move, erasing weeks of gains in just a few days.
Traders are now asking a familiar but uncomfortable question as BTC fails to sustain key resistance levels and a seasonal selloff approaches. How far can Bitcoin fall this time and what does that mean for strategy stocks as we head into the end of the year?
read more here.
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