Bitfinex alpha | Market quietly closed books in February. Good March yard!

04 March Bitfinex alpha | Market quietly closed books in February. Good March yard!

Bitcoin was closed in February with a shock cut of 17.39%, ranking second in history, with its worst performance since 2014! Last week, BTC wobbled so strongly, it freely fell 18.4% to $78,617 before it turned on. The main reason for this decline is the record trend of Bitcoin ETFs, with weak capital flows exceeding $1.1 billion on February 25th.

Since the bottom of November 2022 after the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin’s price market adjustments are usually in the 18-22% range, but the February decline from the historic peak of $109,590 in January has expanded to 28.3%-1, the strongest decline since the price market closed.

BTC/USD weekly chart. (Source: Bitfinex)

But the tension hasn’t stopped! On March 2nd, Donald Trump unexpectedly announced plans to set up the Crypto Reserve Fund, growing 20% ​​from the local bottom and over 12% in just one day, creating a strong comeback. However, Sell -Off has pulled Bitcoin back to around $92,000. If information about the US Crypto Fund is still unknown, BTC trends over the coming weeks will depend heavily on the macro context, particularly the S&P 500. Without return cash flow, sustainable growth is extremely vulnerable.

The US economic situation continues to face many challenges. Long-term inflation, consumer beliefs have declined and growth slowed – everything is putting pressure on the Fed. PCE data for January shows that inflation rose 2.5% over the same period, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target. Household expenditures decreased after the holidays, but personal income increased by 0.9%, keeping inflationary pressures at a high level. Furthermore, the cost of service and new import taxes could make it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates in the near future.

Monthly PCE price fluctuations (source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Consumer psychology is also at the bottom! The consumer confidence index for February fell to 98.3. This was the strongest decline in 3.5 years. The labor market is not particularly positive, and many people have difficulty finding jobs, and there is little hope of new employment opportunities. The escalation of food and housing and the prices of commercial policies are making people more concerned.

Meanwhile, the US economy grew only 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, but slowed compared to 3.1% in the last quarter. The main cause? Extreme winter weather, reduced retail sales, trade policy. Exports and government spending still support the economy, but consumption and business investment have weakened. The trade deficit reached a record $153.3 billion in January, indicating that the US economy still faces many challenges. Without significant policy adjustments, growth in early 2025 may continue to be pessimistic.

Changes in actual GDP and percentage compared to last quarter

Trump’s announcement of U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserves will include major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and then includes an enforcement order in January to clarify restrictions on cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies. The move confirmed a major shift in government’s approach to digital assets, and before the White House Script Summit on March 7th, it merged its US position as a global leader in cryptocurrency.

At the same time, MetaMask announced plans to integrate Bitcoin and Solana into their wallets. Users will soon be able to interact with these two networks without any other wallets. Solana – Appears thanks to Memecoin Fever – Supported in May, Bitcoin is expected to be available in the third quarter of 2024.

The SEC has confirmed that most Memecoins do not fall under federal securities laws, as they do not generate income or rely on centralized management. But if any project pretends to Memecoin to avoid the law or show signs of fraud, the SEC still handles it. This helps to clarify regulations, but also highlights the risks of the “chicken” project.

Meanwhile, the SEC will delay the decision to allow Cboe to list options agreements for Ethereum ETFs, and will advance a decision in May similar to the requirements for BlackRock’s Ishares Ethereum Trust’s Nasdaq ISE. Since mid-2024, it has collected over $11 billion in net worth.

Wishing you a lucrative trading week!

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