Bitfinex alpha | BTC will hit new ATH as October begins strongly

06 October Bitfinex alpha | BTC will hit new ATH as October begins strongly

Bitcoin managed to repeatedly recover from this support as the bottom edge of the air gap in July approached $107,500 and sales pressure eased in line with expectations. The resilience peaked at Bitfinex’s all-time high at $125,710, a 17.08% recovery from the September revised low. The broader market opened in October with strong footholds.

Seasonality supports the bullish outlook for BTC. Historically, October has been colloquially known as “Uptober,” bringing positive benefits over the last 11 years, earning about 21% on average. Q4 is consistently Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, with an average return rate of nearly 80%.

The major factor behind Bitcoin’s rebound was a sharp reduction in sales pressure. The late summer revision was driven primarily by short-term holder surrender and heavy whale distribution, consistent with the Fed’s top cut benefits. As leveraged positions were washed away and the $110,000-112,000 zones were revived, fresh demand absorbed supply and reduced momentum. The macro tail winding is reinforced in parallel. The US Spot Bitcoin ETF reversed the outflow, recording an average daily inflow of more than $647 million last week, but the distribution of whales has been virtually slower. The setup remains favorable. The Doysh Federal Reserve, inflation mitigation, ETF inflow updates, and stable on-chain support suggest that the revision phase is likely behind us.

The US economy is showing new tensions as labor market data slows momentum and shows increased uncertainty. The August Jolts report showed a stable employment opening at 7.2 million people, but despite the sudden employment hiring, the end rate has fallen for the third consecutive month, reflecting a weaker worker trust.

ADP’s September data confirmed unemployment across small businesses and pointed to vulnerability despite the Federal Reserve rate cuts in mid-September. That weakness has been exacerbated by the government shutdown that began on October 1, threatening to push unemployment higher and squeeze consumer sentiment.

This week, the global momentum towards digital asset integration has accelerated. The European Central Bank has finalised contracts with several high-tech companies to develop a potential digital euro core infrastructure, but progress is subject to EU law. In the US, CME Group announced plans to introduce 24/7 crypto futures and options trading by early 2026, working with the non-stop nature of crypto into traditional markets, eliminating the long-standing “CME gap” created as a result of weekend trading. Meanwhile, the SEC has taken advantage of new listing standards that streamline approvals, seeing a surge in over 20 new Crypto ETF filings from publishers such as Rex Shares, Osprey Funds and Defiance ETF. However, the US government closure has temporarily stalled progress and delayed potential launches. Together, these moves highlight the rapid institutional expansion into digital assets amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty.