Bitfinex alpha | Bitcoin resilience amid the market turmoil

April 21st Bitfinex alpha | Bitcoin resilience amid the market turmoil

Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience in recent years during one of the most intense periods of macroeconomically driven uncertainty. Despite a 32% drawdown from January high, BTC still stands alongside the historic mid-cycle retrace of the previous bull market. Importantly, US equities and Treasury have experienced the extreme volatility reflected in VIX, spikes above 40 for the first time in over five years, but Vitocoin has recovered above 16% from its low, surpassing most traditional risk assets.

This rebound comes along with a push of gold to an all-time high of over $3,300 per ounce, reinforcing the growing narrative of Bitcoin being evolving into a digital macro hedge. Both assets are considered valuable global neutral storage amid globalization, trade disputes, and capital flights from volatile stock markets. Recent Price Actions further support this paper. April 2 – or Liberation Day – Bitcoin behaves more like gold than stocks, showing strong recovery momentum from the low markets, whilst lower markets continue to struggle with tightening down and policy uncertainty.

BTC/USD 4H chart. (Source: Bitfinex)

In fact, the US economy in particular recognizes that it is in a sensitive and increasingly unstable position as trade policy uncertainty, inflation risks and consumer behavior converges. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has expressed a cautious stance on interest rates and highlighted the need for more data amid growing market uncertainty caused by new tariffs and restrictions on Chinese imports.

Import prices have fallen conservatively, mainly due to lower energy costs, but this decline is expected to be short-lived. Recently imposed tariffs and weakening of the US dollar could lead to higher import inflation in the coming months. These rising costs have already been kept to consumers, showing a sharp 1.4% increase in retail sales in March. This is evidence that Americans are rushing to buy ahead of the expected price rise, and see more of the defensive response than signs of recovery. The weakening of inflationary pressures and consumer sentiment could quickly turn households into saving on spending.

Import price index and US dollar index

Last week, the crypto landscape saw a wave of adoption and innovation in a variety of areas. Tether has made a strategic investment in Fizen, a fintech company focusing on independent wallets and digital payments, with the aim of bringing Stablecoins like USDT into everyday use through user-friendly tools such as QR codes and card readers. The move reflects the driving force of a wider industry to make digital assets more accessible, especially for unbanked communities around the world. Meanwhile, canary capital has submitted to the US SEC to launch a tron-based ETF that includes some of its larger plans to expand its crypto investment products amid a more favorable regulatory environment. Panama City has announced that it will accept Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDC and USDT on the public sector front for taxes and local government fees.