On Friday, Bitcoin prices fell to a six-month low, falling decisively below the psychological level of $100,000, intensifying the sell-off that wiped out nearly a quarter of its value in just over a month.
By midday, Bitcoin prices were trading between $94,000 and $97,000, according to data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro, the lowest level since early May and a significant drop from October’s all-time high of $126,296.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is $94,850, but it has rebounded from the $94,000 level.
The decline capped a chaotic week across global markets, with risk assets ranging from tech giants to crypto stocks falling as hopes for a December interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve disintegrated.
Just two weeks ago, traders were pricing in a nearly 97% certainty of easing. That probability has now fallen to around 50%, triggering deleveraging in both equities and digital assets.
Why is Bitcoin price falling?
Macro pressures are only part of the story. Bitcoin prices are facing internal market dynamics that amplify the decline. According to new data from CryptoQuant, long-term holders have sold an estimated 815,000 BTC in the past 30 days. This is the largest spill since early 2024.
Spot demand has weakened at the worst possible time, with U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recording hundreds of millions of dollars in daily outflows, draining liquidity and gaining downward momentum.
The confusion extends beyond cryptocurrencies. Risk-sensitive stocks including Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, Coinbase and Bitcoin miners took a hit in trading this week as investors fled speculative assets.
Rising concerns about an AI bubble, combined with uncertainty over lagging US economic data due to the 43-day government shutdown, pushed the VIX index to its highest level since mid-October.
Institutional buying is below the daily supply issued by miners, adding to steady selling pressure as liquidity dwindles.
Bitcoin price fluctuates at a delicate level
According to the paper, Bitcoin prices are currently hovering around the closely watched 365-day moving average of around $100,000, which analysts say could determine whether the current decline turns into a sharper correction. Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Bitfinex researchers pointed out that: bitcoin magazine The drawdown from the October peak is closely related to a typical mid-cycle retracement and is consistent with the roughly 22% pullback seen throughout the 2023-2025 bull market.
They estimate that about 72% of all Bitcoins in circulation are still profitable, even though the price of Bitcoin is below $100,000. This shows that long-term holders are still content to take profits despite weakening sentiment.
Other analysts see signs that the market may be nearing a bottom. JPMorgan estimates that Bitcoin’s current cost of production, driven up by rising network difficulties, is around $94,000, a level that has historically served as a strong downside anchor.
With prices now approaching that threshold, the bank maintains that Bitcoin’s price-to-cost ratio has returned to near historic lows and maintains a bullish 6-12 month outlook with a target of approximately $170,000.
Still, the power to shape this correction is much greater than retail traders. Today, whales, institutions, and leveraged market structures drive most big moves. A single transfer from a wallet holding thousands of BTC can change sentiment across an entire exchange.
However, according to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s recent wave of whale selling is not a sign of panic, but typical late-cycle behavior.
According to Glassnode, long-term holders have been steadily realizing gains, with monthly spending increasing from 12,000 BTC per day in July to around 26,000 BTC per day, which is consistent with the normal bull market distribution and not an “OG whale exodus.”
A broader background is not helpful. The U.S. government reopened after a 43-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, after President Trump approved temporary funding late Wednesday.
The bill would provide funding to federal agencies through January 30, leaving uncertainty in the market even as operations gradually resume.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is trading at $95,670, hovering around the cost of production level and testing key technical support.
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