Crypto Journalist
Anas Hassan
Crypto Journalist
Anas Hassan
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The Binance Bitcoin (BTC) outflow metric shows that traders now prefer to hold rather than sell, which typically aligns with accumulation phases in market cycles.
While daily Bitcoin inflows and outflows alone may not tell the full story of whether the market is at the edge of a breakout toward $130k, data from CryptoQuant shows that the 30-day moving average (SMA30) has been strongly negative in recent weeks.
This suggests that investors over the last 30 days are offloading their Bitcoin holdings from exchanges and accumulating ahead of a potential rally towards $130k, before the end of 2025.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Signals Cyclical Bottom Formation
The accumulation pattern aligns with Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio slipping below its 365-day average to mark a cyclical bottom formation.
Shayan Markets notes that previous drops below this threshold in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024 all marked local bottoms and strong buying opportunities.
The current positioning suggests Bitcoin has entered an undervaluation zone with diminished speculative excess, typically when long-term holders begin accumulating.
“If this metric begins to turn upward from current levels, it could confirm that the recent sell-off was a cyclical bottom formation, supporting a renewed bullish phase into Q4,” the analyst added.
Supporting this view, Glassnode data reveal a 3:1 ratio of dormant Bitcoin (unmoved for one year) to coins traded in the last three months, indicating strong holder conviction despite current market uncertainty.
Bulls Show Signs of Exhaustion
However, Bitcoin’s current price movement shows some signs of weakness and exhaustion from the bulls.
The bulls had two attempts to regain control on October 13 and October 20, but both failed.
Bitcoin rose from liquidation lows of $102k to around $111k yesterday, but opened October 21st with a drop back to critical support around $107k.
This sudden slip has reversed the bullish divergence formation, and Bitcoin is now showing hidden bearish divergence.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows believes the recent drop is a liquidity necessity as Bitcoin came very close to filling its CME gap.
Levels between $107,200-$107,400 will most likely be filled before the US market opens.
According to him, “after that, Bitcoin could show a bounce back, but I’m not expecting any major rally.”
Path to $130K Requires Break Above $120K
From a structural standpoint, Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC Research, told Cryptonews that the demand for Bitcoin derivatives now appears more sustainable.
However, he acknowledged that BTC still seems to be in a downward trend across many short-term time frames and needs to break above $120,000 again to invalidate the bearish setups.
“Should BTC continue to hold above the $110,000 support zone, we could see momentum rebuild toward retesting and breaching $126,000, a move which unlocks the path to $130,000 as the market re-prices growth expectations,” he said.
On the technical front, the weekly Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart shows the price hovering around $108,350, just below the key support region marked by the orange zone, which has acted as a mid-range level since early summer.
The green 21-week moving average line, representing the short-term trend, has flattened, indicating a slowdown in bullish momentum, while recent candles suggest sellers are testing this support repeatedly.
The $108,000–$109,000 zone now serves as a critical pivot; a weekly close below it would confirm a breakdown, potentially triggering a deeper pullback toward the next major support near $103,000.
Conversely, if Bitcoin can hold this level and reclaim the 21-week MA, it could reattempt resistance near $123,500.
The coming weekly close will be decisive in determining whether BTC confirms a breakdown or stabilizes for another leg upward.
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