Ark Invest has revised its long-term outlook for Bitcoin, and currently forecasts a bull case price target of around $2.4 million by 2030. This report sets out a comprehensive modeling framework based on assumptions regarding the total market, adoption trends and supply dynamics of Bitcoin’s Addressable Market (TAM).
Updated targets represent a combined annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~72% between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2030. In comparison, ARK’s base and bear estimates are $1.2 million (CAGR – 53%) and $500,000 (CAGR – 32%), respectively.
“Institutional investments contribute most to our bulls,” the report notes, highlighting the projected penetration rate of 6.5% of the $200 trillion global market portfolio that is gold by 2030.
Bitcoin, known by some as “digital gold,” is becoming increasingly recognized about its potential “Nimbler, storage of more transparent value”according to the report. Digital Gold alone is expected to contribute more than a third to the bull case valuation, assuming Bitcoin captures 60% of Gold’s $18 trillion market capitalization.
Demand in emerging markets is another major factor. “In our view, this Bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital arising,” Ark said, citing the assets’ ability to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing countries. This segment could account for 13.5% valuation of $2.4 million, assuming a TAM penetration rate of 6% on the emerging market financial foundation.
Further contributions stem from growing adoption by the nation-state finances, corporate cash reserves, and the fast-growing ecosystem of chain financial services. In particular, even the conservative assumptions of on-chain services reflect a CAGR of 60% and are based on innovations such as Layer 2 networks and WBTC.
In the supplemental analysis, ARK also applied these assumptions to the “active” supply of Bitcoin. This is a methodology to discount long-standing coins or lost coins. On a vibrant supply base, the bull case price target jumps from the original $1.5 million to an updated $2.4 million.
Ark concludes that “the scarcity and loss of supply of Bitcoin are not reflected in most valuation models today,” suggesting a possibility of further rise beyond already bold predictions.
You can read the full report here.
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