Gold is the standout performer of 2025, climbing over 33%.
It’s three times the profit of the Nasdaq 100 index and almost twice the bitcoin (BTC) performance. In fact, it only costs 31.2 ounces of gold to buy one BTC, known as the BTC-XAU ratio, which fell from 40 ounces last December.
Metals, normally used as heaven during times of financial stress, are supported by government bond yields across major Western economies, reflecting high debt burdens, sustained inflation concerns and slowing growth. These dynamics reinforce the historical role of gold as a store of value, highlighting why all other investments deserve a benchmark where they are measured.
According to technical analysis, the BTC-XAU ratio is integrated within the large rising triangle, a bullish continuation pattern that has been formed since 2017. The 2024 level of the ratio seen at the end of 2021 has been revised at around 25%. This structure refers to potential breakouts by the second half of the fourth quarter or early next year.
Importantly, previous cycles of this ratio saw serious drawdowns before new highs were established for 84% in 2019, 75% in 2020 and 78% in 2022. The current pullback is much shallower, suggesting underlying strength, and maintaining the long-term bullish case.
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