Bitcoin has slid to levels not seen since early July this week, but some analysts say the drop may be shorter before the end of the year grows.
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September has long been recorded as the weakest month for BTC, with historically never being closed more than 8%. That context shapes the way traders and researchers read the charts now.
Expert Timing and Historical Average
Research by network economist Timothy Peterson shows that Christmas and history are four months before it benefits from that window.
Peterson posted on X that Bitcoin is high for 70% of the time over the same four months, with an average calculated gain of +44%.
Based on that average, Bitcoin will trade nearly $160,000 by the last week of 2025. Peterson also warned that calculations are more like guidelines than promises.
It’s exactly four months until Christmas. How do Bitcoin fares during this time?
70% of the time. Average gain: +44%.
However, I don’t think there will be a comparable market/economic situation in a few years to 2025. We exclude 2018, 2022, 2020 and 2017 as uncharacteristic years. pic.twitter.com/0llpetrilc
– Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) August 25, 2025
He proposed to exclude certain years (2022, 2020, 2017). Because those years did not match what he calls comparable market conditions, and removing them will tilt the results towards a more stable, better return.
Markets rarely follow a decent average. Even if a long-term pattern appears, a short burst of volatility still occurs.
Peterson’s notes about excluded certain years acknowledge that reality. It reminds me that it’s smoother on average than a big swing.
BTC…👓
We’re frontrunning the “sell-off in September.”
The scale is different, but the results are the same.
Much more expensive. pic.twitter.com/3ozqrlrtgv
– Donny (@donnydicey) August 27, 2025
Traders see familiar patterns
Some traders in X described current price actions as repeating past seasonal movements. According to Trader Donney, Bitcoin is “frontrunning” through its normal September lull and could move significantly higher after that.
He compared the current action to 2017, suggesting that BTC could mirror gold and catch up after one delay.
The comparison with gold was made previously. This shorthand is for assets that are sometimes traded in sync and re-aligned when macro power changes. For now, price action appears to be a pause, not a breakdown.
Outlook until the end of the year
Based on the report and related figures, the coming months will be a key test of whether the previous four months of meetings will be repeated.
Average +44% movement is a big swing if realized, but the average does not guarantee one outcome.
For traders and investors, it means balancing historical patterns with real-time risk, which has brought BTC back to July levels.
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