Why do you find this Bitcoin cycle so boring? There is analyst weight

In the higher time frame, Bitcoin is still in the bear market, with assets falling 21.7% from their all-time high (ATH) recorded in January, at over $109,000.

However, a slight zoom in shows that assets have surged steady and steady rebounds at 6.8% over the past week.

Cryptoquant Analyst Crypto Dan’s latest analysis provides the context of this careful optimism. In a post entitled “Why do I feel so boring?”, Dan explained that the current cycle appears to be suppressed, unlike the previous Bull Cycle, which is characterized by fast-paced gatherings and surges interest from short-term participants.

Why is the current cycle different?

One of the key indicators supporting Dan’s observation is the noticeably low percentage of Bitcoin held over a short period (one week to one month) reflecting minimal involvement from new market participants. Dan attributes this behavioral shift to two major structural changes. The first is the macroeconomic environment.

In contrast to aggressive liquidity injections and near zero interest rates for the 2020-2021 period, the current market faces harsh liquidity and high interest rates, reducing the pace and size of capital inflows. The second is the transition of market leadership from retailers to institutional investors.

The increased approval and adoption of Bitcoin Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) has transformed the nature of the capital movement into space, and price movements have become more measured and progressive.

As a result, market development is more cautious and lacks the happiness that is commonly seen in previous cycles. Dan emphasized that while some on-chain metrics may suggest a cycle top, current structures may instead refer to more extended, progressive market evolution.

He suggests that long-term patience rather than short-term speculation could lead to better results under these conditions, saying:

In these times, the most important thing is not chasing the quick pump, but rather knowing slower structures and having the patience to stay.

Despite the unusual cycle, Bitcoin on-chain metrics signal strength

Supporting this long-term perspective, another crypto analyst, Elcryptototavo, pointed out that key on-chain metrics continue to be strong. His analysis shows that over 70% of Bitcoin supply remains profitable, historically related to price stability.

This metric tracks the percentage of circulating BTC on a cost basis below the current market price. The supply ratio of the maintenance, particularly above the 70% mark, often served as the basis for further upward momentum.

Elcryptotavo added that the next target is to bring this metric back to the 80% level.

If this threshold is achieved with improved macro conditions and continuous ETF inflows, Bitcoin can see new strengths even in the absence of speculative enthusiasm.

Special images created with Dall-E, TradingView chart