Earlier this month, Bitcoin won over 170%, from around $45,000 to over $123,000 from its starting monthly price.
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Based on reports from City, the bank has laid out three scenarios where prices could land by 2025. These range from a minimum of $64,000 to a herd of bulls in a weak market, $199,000, if everything is done right.
ETF Flow will be the central stage with Bitcoin up trends
According to Citi Analysts, the Spot Bitcoin ETF explains more than 40% of recent price fluctuations. Since its debut, US ETFs have won around $54.6 billion worth of Bitcoin.
Its purchasing power helped boost BTC from around $45,000 to $123,000 in just a few months. The bank’s basic incident expects an additional $15 billion inflow of ETFs this year. At the ratio they modeled (the price of $4 per dollar for flow), we add about $63,000 to the value of Bitcoin.
bitcoin Bitcoin could surge to $199K by the end of the year, City says
Citigroup has released a new forecast to project Bitcoin by the end of 2025 in its base case scenario. The bullish case estimates a potential rise of $199,000, but the bearish outlook is… pic.twitter.com/3kp1o8ogsn
– The Tradesman (@the_tradesman1) July 26, 2025
User growth drives network effects
Based on trading desks and on-chain metric figures, Citi expects an active Bitcoin user to rise by 20% over the next year. Adoption jumps will support a price intensity of around $75,000 on its own.
The idea is simple. This means that more users have more hands trading with Bitcoin. That activity tends to cause prices to suddenly drop. Still, such predictions rest on the assumption that new users will stick around, rather than flipping the coin, instead of getting quick profits.
Macroeconomic factors reduce forecasts slightly
Citi’s model cuts the price to around $3,200, taking into account the decline in stock and gold performance. This adjustment reflects the view that Bitcoin will not be completely separated from the broader risky assets when stocks and metals markets struggle.
At the same time, the growing regulatory approval and the deeper link between crypto and traditional finance should provide some support.
ETF demand could raise Bitcoin by $63,000
In the base case scenario, Citi adds $63,000 from the ETF flow to $75,000 from the user growth and subtracts $3,200 due to macro headwinds.
That mathematics lands a price of around $135,000 in 2025. That figure is above the recent $123,000 peak, exceeding $12,000. City suggests that, at least in the basic case, it is not a runaway rally, but is seeing more rise.
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A $199,000 bull case remains on the table
If ETFs go well beyond $15 billion and user growth exceeds 20%, Bitcoin could rise to $199,000 under City’s bull case.
Conversely, if the macro conditions are suddenly sour, it can drop to $64,000. Globally, the ETF currently holds around 1.48 million btc, worth more than $170 billion. This is 7% of the total supply.
That level of institutional support is unprecedented. It shifts the fate of Bitcoin towards the big money stream rather than pure retail hype.
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