The extremely important 10-year US yield is moving in the wrong direction for Trump

Monday’s trading session has declined as one of the most unstable since Covid Crashion in March 2020, showing no impulse to retreat as the US and China counter tariffs global markets get caught up in crossfire.

Just as the equity market went well, volatility spilled into all asset classes. For example, Bitcoin (BTC) has given up to 10% to desirada. But the real focus lies in the yield of the US 10-year Treasury. It’s what is called a risk-free interest rate, and the Trump administration said it wanted to go down as it tries to refinance trillions of citizen debt.

Yields fell to 3.9% from 4.8% last week after President Donald Trump strengthened trade tensions with import tariffs and increased demand for Treasury bills.

Bond prices usually rise, and yields will be lower when Wall Street avoids risk. Unusually, as risk aversion increased on Monday, yields increased, jumping to 4.22%.

The spikes were not limited to the US. The UK has experienced the most sharp rate jump since the Liztrus era pension crisis in October 2022, showing rising globally, indicating increased instability and reduced trust in sovereign debt and currency.

Ole S Hansen, head of Saxobank’s product strategy, pointed to the scale of the long-standing Treasury movement as a sign of something potentially unfolding.

“The US Treasury struggled with a massive sale yesterday. Turbulence has risen the longest since turbulence during the pandemic outbreak. This includes potential signs of large foreign owners, as well as assets sales and resends. From a low of nearly 3.85% the previous day, 4.17%.”

Hansen was fingering in foreign sales, particularly in China, which is said to have offloaded the $50 billion Treasury Department, but Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, challenged the story.

“No, foreigners weren’t selling the Treasury to punish the US (Trump),” he wrote, instead pointing to a sharp rally on the dollar index (DXY), rising 2.2% in just three days.

“If China or other foreigners were selling the Treasury… they’ll need to convert those dollars into foreign currency. Otherwise it’s pointless to sell the Treasury and leave money to a US bank.

“This suggests that foreign money had moved to the US. We haven’t left there…the sales were more domestic and we were more concerned about inflation.”

Despite these views, unconfirmed reports on sales in China continue to spread. As of January 2025, China still holds approximately $761 billion in debt from the US government, the largest owner after Japan.

The story of a 10 and 30-year yield surge in Chinese is unconvinced, as most of the official Chinese investment in dollar-induced assets are not long-term instruments, but agent bonds, short-term invoices, and bank deposits.

China is aware that it can gain leverage in the trade war through the holdings of US Treasury notes. That’s not necessarily true.