Top market analyst Ali Martinez shares data on the chain that tilts Bitcoin to reach a $130,000 valuation, albeit on one condition. This bullish price forecast has continued to have a price rebound of just 2.6% over the last two days, pushing Bitcoin to the $118,000 price range.
$110K appears as a key Bitcoin support zone – this is why
In a post on July 26th, Ali Martinez assumes that Bitcoin may be on track to a significantly higher leg, based on recent data on the MVRV price range by GlassNode. However, the best cryptocurrencies must ensure that they do not lose certain support zones to prevent this bullish paper from being invalidated.
The MVRV band comes from the market value and realised value (MVRV) ratio, which can be useful for visualizing Bitcoin when it is overvalued or undervalued compared to its historical realised price. These bands act like Bollinger bands, but are based on on-chain basis and track statistical deviations regarding the average MVRV value.
As of July 23, 2025, Bitcoin had been trading at around $118,782 after steadily rising in recent weeks. According to the MVRV pricing model, the cryptocurrency is $130,756 just below the +1.0σ deviation band, representing the next major price resistance and target: In particular, the +1.0σ band is also interpreted as a key zone of extreme market optimism, often leading to the local top (+2.0σ).
Meanwhile, the +0.5σ band on the model served as a critical support threshold at $109,858 above the current market price. Ali Marinez explains that Bitcoin should maintain a price level higher than this band and that it is likely to continue towards a target at +1.0σ level based on historical patterns. However, a breakdown below $110,000 could indicate a deeper correction, potentially lowering to around $88,960 for the average band, or as low as $68,062 (-0.5σ).
Bitcoin investors are profiting from growing market trust
More data from the MVRV model shows that the realised price growth distance for BTC is around $50,831, with current market prices reflecting the growing convictions of investors. In the context, the realised price represents the average cost basis for all coins in the circulation, thereby indicating how much profit the average Bitcoin holder is currently making.
At the press conference, the premier cryptocurrency trades at $118,178, following 0.73% on the past day. However, daily trading volumes are down 53.39%, valued at $479.8 billion. According to price prediction site CONCODEX, the Bitcoin market sentiment is largely bullish, with a fear and greed index approaching extreme greed with a 72.
CONCODEX analysts forecast key cryptocurrencies to maintain their current rebound, rising to $122,019 over five days and $141,075 per month.
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