Dogecoin Crash Signal Flashes: Analysts Warn of a Possible 40% Decreasing

Dogecoin (Doge) holders have been wary by crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@Ali_Charts). According to Martinez, DOGE’s market value (MVRV) ratio formed a “Cross of Death” along with its 200-day moving average (MA).

Dogecoin MVRV Death Cross Warning

Martinez charts, supplied by Santiment, plot three important data points: Doge/USD price (black line), Doge’s MVRV ratio (Orange Line), and Doge’s 200-day MVRV ratio MA (Red Line). It’s there. He commented: The last two times this happened, the price fell by 26% and 44%. ”

A newly printed “Death Cross” occurs when the orange MVRV ratio line falls below the red 200-day MA line. Historically, analysts pointed out that Doge’s price has experienced two important fixes after this same crossover. A 26% decline from early September to late October 2023, and a 44% declined sharply from mid-June to late September 2024.

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Both slumps appear in the shaded areas of the chart and are labeled accordingly. After each of these drawdowns, the Dogecoin price finally recovered, but only after the price level reached a noticeable level. If you look closely at the charts, Dogecoin shows a trade of around $0.268. The MVRV ratio (orange line) rose to nearly 91%, and the 200-day MVRV ratio MA (red line) accounted for approximately 78.36%.

The MVRV ratio compares the current market value of Dogecoin with the realized value (based on the aggregate cost of Doge’s total chain). A 91% MVRV indicates that market participants could on average increase significantly compared to the purchase price. If the ratio exceeds 1. Accurate interpretation depends on how analysts apply the MVRV scale, but generally means that the MVRV ratio is high. An unrealized increase among holders.

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The 200-day MVRV MA is a simple moving average of the MVRV ratios over the past 200 days. This provides a long-term baseline for Dogecoin’s current MVRV to measure up or below historical trends. The “Death Cross” in this context appears when the short-term MVRV ratio (orange line) moves below the 200-day MVRV ratio MA (red line), often indicating a potential change in emotion or impending sales pressure. .

In particular, Dogecoin prices have shown some weaknesses over the past few weeks. Since December 8th, it’s $0.4834, so Doge is constantly writing low highs and lows, creating a very bearish chart setup. Martinez shared the chart below, saying: To change momentum, you need a breakout that surpasses important resistance! ”

To achieve this, your Doge needs to exceed $0.44. However, Doge Bulls can expect significant resistance at $0.31 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement level), $0.342 (0.5 FIB), and $0.375 (0.618 FIB). At the time of pressing, Doge traded for $0.26.

Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com