Do you want to drop Dogecoin moon or crash? This indicator has an answer

According to market engineer Canton Meow (@cantonmeow), a single metric (a simple moving average of 20 months) should be a line that can separate another vertical rally from the catastrophic breakdown of Dogecoin. Currently, Doge sits comfortably above its moving average, and is currently plotted at $0.1751. The black curves on the cat chart show only three clean retests of the 20-month SMA since 2014.

We’re all looking at Dogecoin’s 20-month SMA

It was originally made in March 2017 when the price tapped the average nearly $0.00020, then tore over 9,000% to its peak in January 2018. The second occurs in the winter of 2020, with prices being about a quarter of the cents before 34,500% of the following May before it reaches $0.73. The third and current encounter began last August when Doge recovered more than 480%.

As of today, two consecutive monthly candles were soaked in a zone of less than 20 cents, but both were actively purchased, leaving a higher core, maintaining an average upward gradient. Cantonese cats claim that “we’ll be higher” as long as its moving average remains intact. The decisive monthly end, under $0.175, could risk the entire structure with this read and mark the arrival of a kind of months-long downtrend following the climaxes of 2018 and 2021.

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Total2 must occur

Analyst Kevin (@kev_capital_ta) overlays the microview with a much wider canvas. His chart tracks the total Crypto Markes Capitalization Ex-Bitcoin (TradingView Ticker “Total2”) with two bold yellow trend lines, with monthly candles, with the seven-year ascent channels that top railways fought off prices at the Alt-Season Tops in January 2017 and November 2021. Since its low in June 2022, the market has carved out a rising triangle. A series of rising highs pushes flat-top supply zones between around $1.43 trillion and $1.7 trillion.

The vertex of the triangle is approaching. The Aggregate Alt-Cap is already worth around $1.2 trillion. Between the current print and the confirmed breakout, it is nearly monthly on top of its yellow rectangle. Kevin’s projection measures the height of the pattern, adds it to the breakout level, dropping vertical markers that intersect with the near $5.89 trillion mid-channel.

Kevin’s first Fibonacci expansion target is 1.618 for $4.06 trillion. The higher extensions of 1.886, 2.0 and 2.618 are clusters of around $4.57 trillion, 5.89 trillion and 6.9 trillion respectively, which are almost exactly the last of which match the ceiling of the channel, surrounded by the ultimate in reverse objective for the analyst.

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Why is it important to Dogecoin? Meme-Coin’s two explosive cycles only began after Total2 broke its own pre-cycle highs and money was poured into non-Bitcoin assets. Kevin says, “Altcoins are just hooking the surface of what is possible in the coming months.” This is provided that macrofluidity and regulatory factors allow capital reversal from Bitcoin to the wider market.

In that scenario, Doge’s 20-month SMA is likely to continue to tilt higher, setting a stage of explosive movement. Conversely, the triangle failure of the Alt-Cap makes it much more possible to sustained losses of SMA and robs its historic launch pad Doge.

For now, the indicator is retained. And there is a prospect that it could potentially lead Dogecoin to be primed for another upside down match, even more intense. But as both analysts warn, the end of each month tells the story: 20-month SMA and Alt-Cap breakout, return to hibernation.

At the time of pressing, Doge traded for $0.189.

Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com