Bitcoin price is currently in the high phase of this bullish cycle, and while no model can accurately time the peak, the best on-chain frameworks are pointing to a much higher Bitcoin price target than most expected.
Bitcoin Price Cycle Master
One of the most reliable tools in history is the Bitcoin Cycle Master Chart, which lays out undervalued, fair value, and overvalued zones based on on-chain fundamentals. In past cycles, Bitcoin price has rallied above aggressively valued lines, often kissing or crossing the overvalued line at its peak. Its overvaluation band currently sits around $260,000, but a more realistic Bitcoin price target ceiling is probably closer to $162,000.
Bitcoin Price Short Term Holder MVRV
The MVRV ratio for short-term holders measures how much profit new investors are holding compared to the average entry price. It is one of the most accurate indicators of market sentiment and overheating, as it tracks the behavior of traders who have purchased Bitcoin within the past few months.
Throughout past cycles, when MVRV for short-term holders rose to near 1.7, Bitcoin prices were nearing their last highs before a sharp correction ensued. In the current market, the same number of 1.7 means that the Bitcoin price is between $180,000 and $195,000, depending on the evolution of the realized price. When this indicator moves towards that zone, it provides a clear, data-backed signal that the market is entering late-stage conditions.
Bitcoin price extended cycle
The 200WMA heatmap provides structural context. Many of the past tops occurred when the 200WMA exceeded the previous ATH. Extrapolating further, that crossover could happen around mid-2026. If this cycle were to extend due to sustained ETF inflows, institutional accumulation, or capital rotation from other asset classes, we would expect Bitcoin prices to reach as high as $300,000 to $340,000 due to the overvalued and aggressively valued lines.
Bitcoin Price Confluence
When you overlay the Cycle Master model, MVRV band, and 200WMA heat map, the closest match is approximately $180,000. This zone has significance because it lies at the intersection of the line between rational overestimation and historical well-being. An even more extreme scenario is possible, but it would require the current cycle to prolong beyond most expectations.
Bitcoin price may not reach these goals overnight. But historically, when markets turn around, they move quickly. As we enter the final stages of this bull market, being aware of these modeled Bitcoin price peaks will give you guardrails to manage your exposure and expectations.
For more in-depth data, charts, and expert insights on Bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please be sure to do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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