NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies has been tracking Asteroid 2024 YR4 since it first came into view last year. While initial estimates predicted up to a 3.1% probability that the asteroid would strike the Earth, with additional data, that probability has dropped to 0.00081%. Using the last bit of data the James Webb Space Telescope was able to gather before the asteroid makes its way around the Sun, the center has also updated the probability that the asteroid will strike the moon, raising it to 4.3%, up from an earlier estimate of 1.2%.
NASA emphasizes that if an unlikely collision were to occur, it would not alter the moon’s orbit. According to New Scientist, however, while the moon itself may not be at risk, the debris from the impact could endanger the thousands of artificial satellites orbiting the Earth.
A team from the University of Western Ontario in Canada calculated that the impact could create a kilometer-wide crater, spewing an amount of debris at satellites “equivalent to what we would expect to see in years or even decades, but occurring in just a few days.” The debris would likely destroy any satellites but could cause irreparable damage.
NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office told New Scientist it would be “premature to speculate on potential response options” at this point. When 2024 YR4 comes back into view in 2028, scientists will have about four years to refine the data and develop a plan if a collision appears likely.
Previously:
• NASA bringing asteroid hunters to Sundance
• Asteroid flying close to Earth turns out to be douchebag’s car
• Comparing the size of known asteroids to New York City
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