Bitcoin prices could rise to $143,000 next year as continued adoption through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a more lenient regulatory backdrop in the U.S. infuse new capital into the market, according to a new forecast from Citi.
Analysts at the Wall Street bank set a base price target for Bitcoin over the next 12 months at $143,000. According to a report by MarketWatch, they outlined a bullish scenario that would see the price hover above $189,000, while a bearish scenario would see Bitcoin price fall to around $78,500 if macroeconomic conditions worsen.
Bitcoin prices were trading around $88,000 on Friday, down about 30% from their highs in late October. The pullback followed a sharp wave of selling after a rally earlier this year, but Citi noted that outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been subdued in recent weeks.
“Our forecasts, particularly for Bitcoin, are based on the assumption that investor adoption will continue and that inflows into the $15 billion ETF will drive the token price higher,” the analysts wrote. The memo was led by Alex Saunders, head of global quantitative and macro strategy at Citi.
Citi also pointed to potential regulatory clarity in the US as a key factor driving future demand. The U.S. Senate is negotiating its own version of the House-passed Transparency Act, a bill that would put Bitcoin under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Analysts said clearer rules could encourage broader institutional participation.
The bank’s bearish scenario assumes recessionary pressures and reduced appetite for risk assets. Bitcoin prices fell to multi-month lows in November as the technology’s high valuation and concerns about broader macro risks weighed on the market.
In the same month, the cryptocurrency fell by more than $18,000, the biggest dollar depreciation since May 2021, amid massive investor withdrawals.
Banks are adopting BuyCoin
Two weeks ago, Bank of America signaled a major shift in its approach to Bitcoin exposure by telling its wealth management clients to allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to digital assets.
The move allows more than 15,000 advisors at Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, and Merrill Edge to proactively recommend cryptocurrencies to their clients.
Last week, PNC Bank launched direct spot trading of Bitcoin for eligible private bank customers, allowing them to buy, hold, and sell Bitcoin natively through its own digital banking platform without using an external exchange. The move was powered by Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service infrastructure.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin’s recent decline highlights that the market is stuck consolidating and positive macro catalysts are not translating into a sustained rally.
After briefly testing $89,000 on the back of weaker-than-expected US inflation data, Bitcoin has fallen towards the $84,000 range, widening the correction into its second month. This pattern has become well known. A sharp data-driven rally is followed by a rapid retracement as sellers defend the resistance below $90,000.
Macro signals provide mixed support. CPI fell to 2.7% year-on-year in November, with core inflation at 2.6%, raising the possibility of an eventual Fed rate cut in 2026. This background contributed to the rise in prices during the day. But rising U.S. unemployment and uneven job growth complicate the outlook, increasing expectations that the Fed will move cautiously. Markets seem reluctant to price in aggressive easing.
The main drag remains US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have moved from steady inflows to net redemptions. The outflows will disrupt the stability of the bid that previously absorbed selling pressure, making it difficult to sustain a breakout even on positive news.
Technically, the price of Bitcoin is within a range. Resistance is just below $90,000, and support near $84,000 is weakening. If the price breaks decisively below, it could start a move towards the $72,000-$68,000 zone, where analysts expect demand to increase.
Although extreme fear readings suggest potential undervaluation, short-term momentum remains in favor of sellers.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is hovering around the $88,000 level.
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