Dogecoin traders have heard “5 cents” before. This is the kind of number that sounds like a decoy until price action starts to move as if it’s actually going to get there.
On Friday, DOGE hovered around $0.140, up slightly from the day, while Bitcoin hovered around $92,300. This is the backdrop for a new warning from YouTube analyst VisionPulsed, who told viewers that the “base case scenario” is for Dogecoin to revisit the $0.05-$0.06 zone over the next 12 months, a window that drags Target into 2026.
Will Dogecoin crash to $0.05 in 2026?
In a video titled “WHY IS DOGECOIN CRASHING!? BITCOIN RALLY COMING OR 5 CENT DOGE in 2026!?” posted on December 11th, the gist of his argument is very simple: If Bitcoin is in a bear market, there is no need for a special reason for DOGE to bleed.
“The basic case here is that Bitcoin has entered a bear market,” he said, pointing to a series of indicators he is watching, including the eight-day moving average near $102,000 and the Gaussian channel. As long as BTC stays below these levels, he cites around $103,000 as the line, but he believes the path of least resistance for Dogecoin is a trend down toward 5 cents.
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And he wasn’t pitching it as a clean one-way trip. There’s a lot of talk about the “Chop Zone” in the video. This is his term for periods of confusion when traders try to take long pullbacks or short pullbacks. He called it the “peanut gallery.”
His chart-based rationale is based on a well-known pattern from 2022. Even when Bitcoin achieved a rescue rally, DOGE still hit a low in points. “There is no guarantee that Dogecoin will have a relief rally. As you can see, in 2022 Dogecoin certainly experienced a relief rally towards the last pump with Bitcoin (…) But we also see that as Dogecoin has lower lows, Bitcoin has also had higher lows throughout the spring,” he said.
In his view, one of those “unfinished” spots will initially be near $0.10, then uglier numbers will come into play again depending on how Bitcoin moves.
This order is important because that’s exactly where traders run into trouble. If Bitcoin rebounds, DOGE may also rebound. Or maybe not. VisionPulsed went on to claim that while there are “many indicators” suggesting a Bitcoin rescue rally is possible, there is “no guarantee” that Dogecoin will participate. He sought to emphasize this point by comparing the current tape to MicroStrategy’s tendency to plateau for several weeks before making a sharp move.
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And while his timing framework is more narrative than mathematical, it is still widely used in the crypto world. The idea is that the market often makes a final meaningful rally about 140-150 days after a major high, and then prices don’t return to that level for an extended period of time. Citing examples from previous cycles (2014, 2018, 2019, 2022), he argued that once Bitcoin falls into its “channel” regime, it tends to stay there until the broader downtrend ends.
So what does $0.05 really mean from here? From roughly $0.14, that’s about a 64% drawdown. It’s violent, but not exactly exotic in DOGE history. That’s why this voice reaches some traders even if they don’t want to hear it.
According to VisionPulsed, the big escape hatch is the Bitcoin breakout. He argues that if BTC reaches new all-time highs by February, the bearish “base case” will be invalidated and DOGE can do the same thing as DOGE when the market turns risk-on. Until then, he had framed $0.05 to $0.06 as a boring, brutal probability-based outcome.
“So the base case for the next 12 months is basically that at some point, Doge is most likely going to fall into this 5-6 cent range unless Bitcoin goes up and hits a new all-time high by February. If Bitcoin hits a new all-time high by February, Doge will avoid that (the $0.05 target) and start pumping to the moon like everyone wants,” he concluded.
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.14.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart on TradingView.com
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