Bitfinex alpha | Spot Demand Drives BTC Strength

May 19th Bitfinex alpha | Spot Demand Drives BTC Strength

Bitcoin has been steadily rising since regaining its lowest in the $92,000 range in late April, continuing to show exceptional resilience and structural strength.

The assembly is clearly spot-driven, followed by a short, well-defined phase of integration, followed by a high impulse movement. This pattern suggests healthy accumulation and strong underlying demand, rather than speculative excess. Spot cumulative volume delta over major exchanges reinforces the view that actual buyers dominate the market than leveraged traders.

On the other hand, positioning of derivatives is reactive, with open interest variability highlighting the transition period marked by short squeezes and liquidation-driven resets. The result is a healthier foundation, clearing speculative bubbles, and momentum is supported by a real flow of capital.

With Bitcoin at its all-time high and spot premiums remaining, price action bound to current ranges could simply represent a period of potential pre-breakout stabilization. Short-term pullbacks are still possible, but the broader trends remain solidly constructive.

That’s because inflation is cold, but deeper structural risks are beginning to emerge, so warning signs continue to flash throughout the US economy. The consumer price index rose just 0.2% a month in April and only 2.3% a year. This is the lowest annual profit since early 2021.

The decline in food prices has helped ease pressure from shelter costs, but the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty over tariffs and trade policies. Despite a temporary ceasefire between the US and China, a temporary ceasefire on import tariffs remains, potentially moving forward by July. These unresolved trade tensions pose major challenges for businesses and policymakers.

At the same time, financial tensions are being built at the family level. Recent data from the New York Fed shows an increase in over 90 days of arrears on credit card and student loan balances, highlighting the vulnerable state of consumer finances. As tariffs begin to bite and inflation remains risky, the combination of lower growth rates and rising prices (potential stagflation) has allowed the Federal Reserve to be in a difficult position.

For now, the Fed may remain cautious as core services and housing costs are still rising. However, as economic pressures rise, the coming months will demand both flexibility and vigilance.

Bitcoin’s institutional and corporate adoption continues to grow despite declining markets and regulatory uncertainties. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala investment company increased its holdings of BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in the first quarter of 2025, signaling long-term trust despite a temporary decline in the ETF’s market value. Since its launch in January 2024, IBIT has led the US market for Spot ETF, pulling out more than $45.5 billion inflows and managing $65.4 billion in assets.

In Latin America, Brazil’s Fintech Melluse became the region’s first public company to adopt a Bitcoin financial strategy. After purchasing 274.52 BTC worth $28.4 million, its total holding is now over 320 BTC. The move was supported by shareholders and then followed by a 116% surge in the company’s stock, reflecting strong investors’ support for crypto-based financial strategies.

Meanwhile, the legal landscape remains tense. A US judge rejected joint requests from the SEC and Ripple, relaxed penalties, lifted restrictions and cited procedural errors as the lawsuit is being appealed. The decision will halt the potential settlement of a groundbreaking case that could shape the future of US crypto regulations. Together, these events highlight both the momentum and hurdles facing the growing role of crypto in finance.