Bitfinex alpha | Macros have arrived, but remain positive in the second quarter

April 7th Bitfinex alpha | Macros have arrived, but remain positive in the second quarter

After a relatively resilient performance last week, BTC is almost flat, dropping just 0.65% (better than traditional risk assets) by just 0.65%.

The market is currently selling, despite the BTC/S&P 500 ratio surges to a record high of 5%. We believe that stocks are in a very overloaded state, and that short-term relief gatherings could potentially squeeze this spread in the mid-term. However, the trends in short-term funding and open interest also suggest that BTC invasion collapses. Structurally, though, the foundation appears to be formed later in the second quarter for outperformance. As macro volatility cools, ETF influx resumes and the sovereign story reappears, Bitcoin is further detached from stocks and can regain leadership across global risk assets.

The US economy provided short-term optimism with stronger work and construction figures than expected in early 2025. However, the newly implemented tariffs weigh heavily on manufacturing, pricing and labor markets, bringing deeper structural challenges to emerge. Job growth in March, led by the private services sector, has shown signs of tension in the sector that maintains potential instability and manufacture and commodity-generating sectors.

At the same time, tariffs now average over 22% have increased input costs across the industry, fostering inflationary pressures and fostering retaliation from key trading partners. With mortgage rates eased construction spending increased in February, but costs inflation from materials such as steel, aluminum and wood have already tightened the affordable prices. Manufacturing activities are back to contraction, showing a tendency to soften labour market indicators, particularly job openings. The Federal Reserve continues to be cautious amidst uncertain inflation dynamics, but the big picture suggests that trade policy rather than monetary policy could be a greater risk to economic momentum for the coming quarter.

From a newsflow perspective, the industry continues to evolve proactively. Japan is leading regulatory modernization by classifying cryptocurrencies as financial instruments and suggesting that cryptocurrencies be reduced to 20%. Meanwhile, Grayscale has applied for Spot Solana ETFs, showing increased confidence in alternative layer 1 assets, potentially paving the way for wider ETF adoption beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Complementing these developments, BlackRock’s on-chain Buidl funds continue to dominate the tokenized financial market, paying $4.17 million in March dividends and gaining nearly 40% market share. These parallel marches highlight the convergence of traditional financial acceleration and blockchain technology, pointing to an increasingly accessible, compliant and investor-friendly mature market infrastructure.