Bitfinex alpha | Macro to determine BTC price

August 11th Bitfinex alpha | Macro to determine BTC price

Bitcoin rebounded from its $112,000 low and regained a range floor of $115,800. This recovery has restored short-term confidence along with a steady accumulation of Crypto Treasury Firms currently holding nearly $90 billion in digital assets, breaking past highs in the range of nearly $119,500, but is still unclear if this breakout via resistance is maintained. The price is waving around a short-term holder cost-based standard of $106,709, with conditions still in place to maintain “warm but not overheated” conditions, consistent with the bull phase during the cycle.

The market is balanced, but highly sensitive to macrocatalysts, as 70% of the short-term holder supply still cools down profit and profitable activity to 45%. So, this week’s key US inflation data can determine whether BTC will push a new all-time high or return it to $110,000.

After months of mildness in the financial markets, the confluence of changes in trade policy, evolving bond market dynamics and soft economic data sets the stage on a more unstable setting near the year. Pending US tariffs threaten to raise costs, disrupt supply chains and threaten pressure jobs, but the rising premium in the bond market (now 0.65%) has increased uncertainty about future Fed policies, especially if inflation accelerates after dependency. Manufacturing orders fell 4.8% in June, highlighting uneven demand and the challenges companies face when securing goods ahead of the holiday season turmoil.

The labour market is also cooling, slowing employment growth, significant downward revisions to previous employment data, and service sector activity stagnates just above the contraction level. While rising input costs in the services sector increase inflationary pressures, it increases workers’ productivity – a 2.4% increase in the second quarter – provides a critical buffer, suggesting that technology-driven efficiency improvements may help sustain growth in soft employment environments.

In the crypto space, Bitmine Immersion Technologies has rapidly built the world’s largest Ethereum Treasury Department, accumulating over 833,000 ETH, worth $29 billion in just five weeks, and has established itself as a leading institutional player as a backer for ARK, Pantera, Galaxy Digital and more. Changes in policy under President Trump are also reshaping the industry’s landscape. Recent executive orders could open the doors of 401(k) and other retirement plans and drive mainstream adoption, including alternative assets, including digital assets. Another order will prohibit politicized decubiting, explicitly protecting crypto companies’ access to banking services and dismantling barriers set up under previous regulatory regimes.