Bitfinex alpha | February ends with a whisper. March starts with a bang!

03 March Bitfinex alpha | February ends with a whisper. March starts with a bang!

Bitcoin closed in February, falling at a steep 17.39%, marking its worst performance since 2014 and second in history. There was intense volatility last week, with Bitcoin rising 18.4% to a low of $78,617 before the rebound. This sharp decline was driven primarily by record-breaking Bitcoin ETF spills, peaking on February 25th at over $1.1 billion as the system’s flow weakened.

Since reaching the bottom in November 2022 following the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin’s bull market correction has been in the 18-22% range, but the $109,590 range has been extended to 28.3% from its all-time high in January.

President Donald Trump’s announcement of US crypto sanctuaries on Sunday March 2 rose 20% from the local low, causing a sharp reversal of over 12% that day, but subsequent sales reduced Bitcoin to around $92,000. Markets remain vulnerable and without new institutional influx, sustained bullish momentum may prove elusive.

The US economic situation remains complicated by sustained inflation, reduced consumer reliability, and slower vision formation. Personal Consumption Expense Inflation Data for January revealed a 2.5% increase per year, exceeding the Federal Reserve target of 2%. Despite DIP after normal holiday days of household spending, personal income rose 0.9% in January, maintaining inflationary pressure. Also, rising costs of service and new import duties are expected to further complicate the Fed’s ability to adjust interest rates, with interest rate reductions in the near term unlikely.

Consumer sentiment was also a hit, with the conference committee’s consumer confidence index falling to 98.3 in February, marking the sharpest decline in three and a half years. Job market concerns are growing, and more consumers report finding it difficult to find jobs and expecting new opportunities in the coming months. The rise in trade policies and prices for key commodities, including food and housing, continues to erode confidence.

Meanwhile, the US economy expanded at a slower rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 3.1% in the last quarter. This slowdown is attributed to harsh winter weather, lower retail activity and uncertainty about trade policy. Government spending and exports provided some support, but consumer spending and business investment weakened. The wide trade deficit, which reached a record $153.3 billion in January, further highlights the challenges the economy is facing. With inflationary pressures and declining consumer sentiment continuing, economic growth in early 2025 is expected to continue to be curtailed unless a major policy adjustment or favorable economic situation promotes updated momentum.

Trump’s announcement of US Crypto Strategic Reserve shows that it will include major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, and will clarify crypto regulations in January while banning central bank digital currency (CBDC). The move will strengthen the US as a global leader in crypto ahead of the White House Script Summit on March 7th, confirming a major change in government approach to digital assets.

Meanwhile, Metamask has announced plans to integrate Bitcoin and Solana into wallets, allowing users to interact with these networks without the need for additional wallets. Seeing rapid adoption due to Memecoins’ popularity, Solana will be supported from May, but Bitcoin support is expected in the third quarter of 2024.

Regulatory-wise, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made it clear that most Memecoins do not fall under federal securities laws because they do not generate income or rely on management efforts. However, the SEC warns that false labeling or misconduct by projects as memokines to bypass regulations will be subject to legal action. This distinction provides regulatory clarity while highlighting the risks of investing in misleading crypto projects.

Meanwhile, the SEC has again delayed its decision on whether to allow CBOE to list Ether ETF options, pushing the deadline to May. A similar decision is expected in April regarding the Nasdaq ISE request to list BlackRock’s Ishares Ethereum Trust options. The introduction of ETH ETF options is considered an important step towards institutional adoption, especially considering the fact that Spot Ether ETF has already attracted a net worth of $11 billion since its launch in mid-2024.