Bitfinex alpha | Buyers are waiting for opportunities

April 16th Bitfinex alpha | Buyers are waiting for opportunities

Bitcoin made an impressive recovery last week when it regained $85,000. The revival was motivated by a wave of optimism in the macro after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of new taxes, which helped ease trade tensions and evoke a taste of risk for investors. In particular, this recovery stems from the actual needs of the spot market rather than relying on derivative leverage positions. This shows the strong belief of the buyer. At the end of the week, Bitcoin increased by 6.67%, extending momentum from the bottom by 15%, showing current adjustments – 83 days down 31%, falling within the normal range of regression between cycles of previous cattle markets.

Bitcoin price and annual adjustment (source: Cryptoquant)

Data on the cumulative volume of large exchanges continuously shows strong buying power, but prices still remain in the range of 75,000-85,000. This difference suggests the possibility of increased breakthroughs if supply continues to decline. However, short-term adjustments are forecast earlier this week, primarily due to profits. Reaction to this reduction – whether buyers will continue to absorb supply will determine whether Bitcoin will move towards $90,000. On-chain data also supports positive trends since December when long-term investors’ accumulation first became positive. Although the initial signal is very positive, the force of trends still depends on how demand is maintained with short-term weaknesses.

March takes a little breath when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops slightly due to price and shipping prices. But beneath this temporary, peaceful shell is a quietly formed storm. New tariffs, particularly recent US policies, are preparing to raise prices in the coming months. Core inflation, particularly in the services and housing sectors, is still towering, reinforcing concerns that inflation pressures are not cooled. This unstable inflation context is consistent with increasing disruption in financial markets. Trade policies change rapidly – the first increase in tax increases, and the rush to withdraw – have shaken up the global belief in the US economic orientation, sparking a capital stream from American assets.

US Dollar Index (DXY) (Source: TradingView)

The dollar weakened, Treasury bond yields surged, and market fluctuations increased, indicating an increasingly tense environment. Even the short-term rise of the S&P 500 is not enough to ease fear when investors still suffer from the consequences of volatile policies. Meanwhile, consumer psychology is falling sharply. The latest study from the University of Michigan showed that since the early 1980s, severe decline in confidence and expectations of inflation have skyrocketed to the highest levels. Households are mentally prepared for sustained inflation and unemployment, reducing spending and preventing economic hardships. This decline in financial and consumer beliefs indicates that the US economy is facing a significant turning point. In the case of inflationary anxiety conflicts with slow growth, the Fed has fallen into a difficult position. Balancing inflation controls and reducing interest rates while trying to avoid a comprehensive recession may have to be delayed. The combination of tariff inflation, collapsed policies, and market fluctuations due to consumer beliefs creates a pessimistic picture. Unless clarity and stability are coming back soon, the US economy could be in its most difficult period since the pandemic.

Last week, Galaxy Digital was approved by the SEC to rebuild with Delaware and was listed on Nasdaq using the GLXY stock code. This is a strategic move, and there is a growing acceptance of traditional American capital markets for digital asset investments. However, the dark side of the uncontrolled representation is also exposed. In Argentina, a parliamentary investigation was launched with Libra Token, a Solana memo coin that President Javier Miley publicly supports before its value collapsed more than 90%, sweeping billions of dollars in market capitalization. Initially it was a symbol of supporting innovation, but soon turned into a scandal, with lawmakers demanding an explanation and asking for each Mairay bullet. In the US, North Carolina will allow several cryptocurrencies to pay taxes and transactions in a cautious but optimistic way by introducing the Digital Asset Freedom Act. From institutional acceptance to political scandals, multidimensional developments have led to the development of cryptographic painting as a transformation tool and a mirror that reflects the challenges of suspension. Through multidimensional development – from accepting political outcomes – the crypto world continues to grow as a conversion tool, reflecting the challenges of destruction.

Bitcoin has witnessed a strong recovery with beliefs from real buyers, but the market still needs to go through short-term adjustments to see the trend of increasing. Meanwhile, the global macroeconomic situation is fluctuating, bringing many challenges to both traditional and crypto markets. The cryptocurrency world remains a bright place, but it is also a mirror that reflects the risks and lessons learned from innovation.

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