Bitfinex alpha | Bullish momentum begins to form

April 28th Bitfinex alpha | Bullish momentum begins to form

Bitcoin continues to showcase impressive resilience, rising more than 10% over the past week, surpassing traditional risk assets like the S&P 500. After enduring several weeks of choppy price action and low liquidity, Bitcoin has recovered a low in the $94,000 range. This recovery is supported by a shift in macro-feeling, with new optimism from the US administration about the possibility of tariff easing, leading to a broader risk-on movement across global markets.

Bitcoin also recovered the short-term holder cost base level at around $92,900. This is a critical on-chain pivot level that usually separates the correction phase from the updated bullish momentum. In addition to the positive market structure, the supply rate of profit metrics also rebounded at 87.3%, indicating an increase in market health and investor profitability.

The next few weeks will be very important. We are not yet at the level of complete euphoria. Bitcoin’s ability to maintain these profits over the coming weeks will be key to determining whether a new leg that is high towards the highest ever can be achieved, or if another pullback is being hauled.

Recent US trade policies, particularly high tariff levies on imports from China and other countries, have begun to strain the economy. Initial unemployment claims remain low, with unemployment rates of 4.2%, but there are signs of weakening trust in the labour market.

Wage satisfaction and minimum acceptable salary expectations (reservation wages) have declined sharply, indicating growing concerns about long-term job safety and wage growth.

Meanwhile, durable product orders rose significantly in March, driven primarily by a surge in demand for commercial aircraft. However, the orders for core capital goods, a better indicator of corporate investment, showed little growth, reflecting careful corporate sentiment amidst tariff uncertainty. Companies are slowing down key investments, raising concerns about a potential slowdown in economic momentum later this year.

The US dollar has also weakened due to a decline in confidence in US economic leadership, a major downgrade in GDP forecasts, and a stronger global competition, particularly from Europe. The risk of lower consumer sentiment and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts could accelerate the dollar’s depreciation. Potential repatriation from Japanese investors and intervention by the Bank of Japan could further complicate the dollar’s trajectory.

However, on the positive side, the Federal Reserve aims to ease crypto assets rules, promote innovation and simplify procedures by rescissing previous supervision requirements for the US banking sector, and to promote innovation for banks who want to engage in crypto and dollar token activities. The move shows a more collaborative and adaptive regulatory stance towards the digital asset sector.

In parallel development, Securitize and Mantle launched the MI4 Crypto Index Fund with a $400 million commitment, providing a regulated and diverse exposure to major cryptocurrencies for institutional investors. The partnership reflects the expansion of blockchain integration into traditional finance and advances in asset tokenization.

CME Group has also announced the launch of XRP Futures. This expansion beyond Bitcoin and etheric futures highlights the growing institutional interest in Altcoins, aiming to boost XRP’s liquidity, price discovery and mainstream financial adoption following its settlement with the SEC.