Bitfinex alpha | BTC will consolidate ahead of the third quarter

June 30th Bitfinex alpha | BTC will consolidate ahead of the third quarter

Bitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined range between $100,000 and $110,000, showing signs of consolidation after an explosive almost 50% rally from its low of $74,634 in April. Recent price action compression reflects cooling of both chain and derivative activities, reflecting a decrease in spot volume, lower candidate buying pressure, and lower open interest, highlighting the market transitioning from a positive impulse to a range stage.

Bitcoin short-term holders successfully served as a major structural level with a price of around $98,700, particularly during the latest drawdown that escalated tensions between Iran and Israel. Despite its volatility, this level continues to act as both a support and a resistance zone throughout the current bull cycle. Last week, a short collapse to a low of $99,830 triggered important liquidation on both the long and short sides, bringing future open profit levels above 7% in the 24-hour window. This flash cleared quarterly over leverage and reset market positioning.

Going forward, historical seasonality suggests a phase where volatility is low and directional movements have been calm. On average, Q3 is Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, historically a return of just +6%, with price action tending to remain in range for this period.

The US economy continues to send contradictory signals as consumer spending slows, but inflation stubbornly surpasses targets, complicating Federal Reserve decisions. In May, both personal income and expenditures fell, with many households using their savings to cut essentials such as vehicles and dining out. Core inflation has risen to 2.7% and will maintain a cut from the table for now as the Fed focuses on balancing price stability. The trade deficit has grown further, claims of unemployment show signs of the cooling labor market, and orders of durable goods have earned a temporary lift from a surge in aircraft sales. Hope for the short-term Fed action has dimmed as policymakers await clearer evidence on the direction of the economy amid tariff pressures and global uncertainty.

At Crypto, Chinese securities companies Gemini and GF provide EU and Hong Kong investors, respectively, as part of their efforts to combine traditional finance with blockchain with traditional finance. Meanwhile, the risks in the sector were highlighted by a Pennsylvania man’s more than eight years of prison sentence for fraudulent investors in a $40 million crypto Ponzi scheme, reinforcing the need for vigilance to allow digital finance to evolve.