03 February Bitfinex alpha | BTC shakes by tariff hikes but remains resilient
With Bitfinex Alpha
Bitcoin price action is increasingly reflecting the broader macroeconomic development, in a strong response to President Donald Trump’s US policy announcement. Over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000, tailored to expectations for lower volatility and potential short-term market-wide revisions. Bitcoin began 2025 with a 10% increase in January, but its momentum slowed, with prices consolidated within the 15% range over the past 65 days.
In fact, BTC leads the US stock market when it comes to responding to macro development. The double-top structure seen on both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 charts first occurred in BTC. The latest market catalyst, Trump’s tariff announcement – caused a 0.5% drop in the S&P 500 and a more pronounced decline in Bitcoin last Friday. Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 rose to 0.8, marking its highest level in five months. This reinforces the view that Bitcoin is traded like a macro-driven risky asset.
Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin remains structurally strong in a higher time frame. BTC has surpassed traditional markets since the US election, exceeding $67,000 to $100,000, but stocks have shown a choppy recovery.
BTC/USD 4H chart. (Source: Bitfinex)
Against this backdrop, the US economy continues to show resilience through solid consumer spending and economic expansion, but also faces headwinds due to policy uncertainty, trade disruption and stubborn inflation.
The Federal Reserve has stabilized interest rates at 4.25-4.50% last week, indicating that policymakers are not ready to ease financial terms until inflation shows a clear downward trend. Consumer spending spiked in December, with actual spending increasing by 0.4%, further strengthening economic growth, but complicating the Fed’s path.
Changes in PCE (personal consumption expenditure) price index over a month
Inflation rate exceeds the central bank’s 2% target, with core PCE inflation hovering at 2.8% year-on-year. Despite slow wage growth, the tough labor market and potential immigration restrictions could lead to higher labor costs and increased inflation risk. Meanwhile, the economic expansion shut down to 2.3% the year, supported by strong household consumption and increased government spending, but lower business investment and trade uncertainty continue to pose risk.
Therefore, the market reduced expectations and reduced pricing when there was a low chance of short-term easing. With the flux’s political and economic variables, the coming months will be important in determining whether the Fed will ease or maintain its restrictive stance to combat inflationary pressures.
As the US economy navigates periods of resilience mixed with policy uncertainty, the cryptocurrency sector is experiencing its own inflection point. It is marked by aggressive institutional accumulation, financial innovation and deeper integration with traditional financial infrastructure. Inflationary pressures pending the Federal Reserve have made market participants careful observations of how digital assets respond to macroeconomic trends, changes in monetary policy, and increased corporate adoption.
MicroStrategy continues to double Bitcoin, obtaining an additional 10,107 BTC for $1.1 billion, bringing its total holdings to 158,400 BTC. The company has also submitted shelving registrations with the SEC, allowing it to efficiently raise funds for future Bitcoin purchases. Meanwhile, Metaplanet, a registered company in Tokyo, has created history with $745 million in funding to expand its Bitcoin reserve, and amortization of the yen is “Bitcoin First, Bitcoin, Bitcoin” Only” strategy has been strengthened. This illustrates the growing institutional belief that Bitcoin serves as a hedge against financial decline and economic instability. At the same time, Tether is expanding the usefulness of the $140 billion USDT Stable Coin by integrating it into Bitcoin’s Lightning network. This move will greatly enhance Bitcoin’s financial infrastructure, enabling faster and more efficient global transactions. By leveraging Taproot assets, Tether bridges the gap between Stablecoins and Bitcoin security, creating a more viable payment network, rather than valuable storage.
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