Bitfinex Alpha | BTC seeking the bottom price

November 17th Bitfinex Alpha | BTC seeking the bottom price

Bitcoin is currently trading below $94,000, down 25% from its all-time high, with the third-largest drawdown of the current cycle, and continues to trend lower on shorter time frames. However, the current pace of selling and the magnitude of realized losses investors are experiencing are beginning to stabilize, suggesting the market may be entering a phase of consolidation rather than a long-term capitulation.

BTC is currently trading firmly below the short-term holder (STH) cost base of $111,900 and the -1 standard deviation band of around $97,500, and downside risk remains until these levels are restored. Still, signs of depletion on the chain are emerging. STH realized profit/loss ratio was below 0.20. This means that over 80 percent of the coins moved on-chain are sold at a loss, a zone that historically coincides with local bottom prices. Similarly, STH’s supply margin has fallen to 7.6%, a level last seen near the trough of the previous cycle. Although further confirmation is required due to the new influx of demand, this confluence of indicators means that from more perspectives a durable foundation is set to be formed soon. time than pricesetting the stage for potential stabilization towards the second half of the fourth quarter.

The United States enters the second half of 2025 with a significantly softer macroeconomic background. The 43-day government shutdown is over, but it has left clear economic scars, including permanent GDP losses of about $7 billion to $14 billion, widespread liquidity stress among furloughed workers, and renewed concerns about fiscal brinkmanship ahead of a new January funding deadline. Markets initially avoided the turmoil, but sentiment quickly deteriorated afterward, with the S&P 500 index falling as investors reassessed fiscal risks and the prospects for a Fed moratorium.

Meanwhile, domestic business confidence has cooled. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell in October, reflecting weak sales, shrinking profits and persistent labor shortages. The decline coincided with weaker global demand, with the Global PMI New Export Orders Index falling to 48.5, the steepest decline in nearly two years, with both manufacturing and services showing broad declines.

Inflation adds further pressure. With official CPI data unavailable during the government shutdown, proxy measures show price stickiness, with the New York Fed’s forecast at just 3.2% and market-based breakeven hovering around 2.2%. Rising inflation expectations and large amounts of fiscal spending suggest the Fed may keep interest rates high for an extended period of time, keeping mortgage rates above 6% and providing little relief to households.

Cryptocurrency regulation in the United States took a major step forward this week as a bipartisan Senate bill proposes to shift primary oversight of digital assets from the SEC to the CFTC. The bill would classify most tokens as “digital goods” and require exchanges and custodians to register them under a product-style framework, but leaves open important questions about DeFi, AML rules, and government coordination.

Crypto has also expanded further into entertainment as UFC parent company TKO Group Holdings has signed a multi-year agreement with Polymarket to integrate real-time market forecast data into live events starting in 2026. This partnership marks a deeper fusion of sports engagement and Web3 tools.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the Czech National Bank launched a $1 million pilot portfolio including Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenized deposits, marking its first direct exposure to digital assets. Framed as a technology experiment, the initiative reflects central banks’ growing interest in understanding how blockchain-based financial products will shape future financial infrastructure.