Bitfinex Alpha | BTC floor remains elusive

November 24th Bitfinex Alpha | BTC floor remains elusive

Bitcoin has officially recorded its fourth consecutive week of declines, a rare event not seen in more than 500 days, and this time the decline is steeper and more pronounced. Over the past month, BTC has fallen 30.6%, exceeding the 24% drawdown seen during the 2024 consolidation phase and widening the decline to nearly 36% from its all-time high.

This economic downturn doesn’t just show up on the charts. It’s built into the operation on the chain. Short-term holders, typically the group most sensitive to volatility, have started trading at the fastest rate since FTX’s collapse in 2022. Realized losses for these recent buyers have soared to $523 million per day, highlighting how top-heavy the market has become in the $106,000 to $118,000 range.

The broader market trends are equally surprising. Bitcoin once again peaked before stocks, a pattern observed at the beginning of 2025, which may indicate that traditional markets still have room for correction. Losses are still being felt acutely in the crypto derivatives market. The $19.2 billion loss seen on October 10 was followed by a further $3.9 billion loss last week. The scale of deleveraging highlights the severe stress spreading through futures and perpetual markets.

Seasonality, which is usually a reliable indicator, doesn’t help. Despite a decade-long history of average +40% gains, November is currently trading at -21.3%, with October marking its first negative close in seven years.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic conditions last week reflected more moderation than momentum, characterized by stable but decidedly cool working conditions, cautious consumers, and a persistently weak housing market.

The long-delayed September jobs report showed stronger-than-expected employment growth and a slight rise in the unemployment rate, reinforcing views that the labor market is slowing in a controlled manner. With no new inflation data available ahead of the FOMC’s Dec. 9-10 meeting, these numbers strengthen the case for the Fed to keep interest rates on hold. At the same time, consumer sentiment weakened markedly in November, revealing rising tensions due to tighter credit and lower purchasing power, while dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams briefly boosted market expectations for a December rate cut, despite the lack of new indicators.

However, housing indicators remain pessimistic. Builder confidence remained in contraction territory for the 19th consecutive month, buyer traffic remained weak and deteriorating affordability strengthened price incentives. Overall, rising borrowing costs continue to gradually cool the economy, and policy uncertainty and fragile sentiment point to a difficult road ahead for both consumers and the housing market.

Last week, the cryptocurrency industry saw meaningful movement across regulation, sovereignty implementation, and corporate strategy. In the United States, the White House has advanced its review of the IRS’ proposal to join the OECD’s global cryptoasset reporting framework and signaled increased oversight of Americans’ offshore holdings. Meanwhile, El Salvador made headlines with a historic one-day purchase of 1,090 BTC (approximately USD 100 million), deepening its long-term accumulation strategy despite controversy over its IMF loan commitment. These developments highlight how regulatory convergence, sovereign positions, and institutional restructuring continue to shape the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.