Bitfinex alpha | Breakthrough Signal

March 19th Bitfinex alpha | Breakthrough Signal

Bitcoin only plunged from its historic peak of $109,590 on January 20th, falling to $77.041 last week. In other words, we marked the second deepest adjustment in this price increase cycle. As a rule, the cattle market often witnesses a decline of around 30% and then changes strong growth again. However, unlike previous cycles, the current price rise was shaped by shallower adjustments thanks to the strong participation of large organizations and demand from Bitcoin ETFs. But now, capital flows are flowing from Bitcoin ETFs offered in the US, showing that a total of $921.4 million has withdrawn over the past week, indicating that the organization’s investors are actually not balanced in sales pressure.

Figure: Bitcoin capital flows for short-term holders of various groups.
(Source: GlassNode)

Short-term investors continue to face raw losses, increasing sales pressure. In particular, Bitcoin buyers in the past 7-30 days are the easiest to surrender. Historically, when new cash flows slow down and the fundamental trend of changing costs decreases, this is a signal that indicates the need for weakening. This is more evident when Bitcoin is difficult to maintain a critical support level. Without new buyers, Bitcoin could enter a long-term accumulation phase or even drop deeper as weak investors continue to run away.

The main factor currently being monitored is whether long-term investors or cash flows will return to this low price. If “deep money” begins to absorb supply, this can activate the accumulation stage, stabilize prices, and reverse the psychology of the market.

The US economy is also at the junction of roads. The labour market remains strong, but cooled, and inflation is declining, but consumer beliefs are falling. In February last year, inflation remained stable thanks to increased fuel and gas fleet fares to increase housing costs. However, prices could rise in the coming months due to disruptions in supply chain and tariff pressures. The number of new jobs increased in January, but the number of firecrackers reached its lowest level in seven months, showing stability. However, hidden unemployment rates are rising, and trade instability, particularly new tariffs on major imports, are considering business psychology. Consumer trust has fallen to its lowest level for over two years, and is expected to see rising inflation and economic instability that overshadows both household and business outlook. The way the Fed responds to trade policy and inflation risks determines whether the economy is stable or weak.

Consumer beliefs at the University of Michigan (Source: McLumicro University)

Last week at Crypto Market, the CBOE BZX trading platform proposed a bet for Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund. This can facilitate capital flow to ETH ETFs, especially when staking capabilities (approximately 3-4% per year) are incorporated. However, SEC managers remain a major obstacle. In Thailand, the Securities Commission has approved permission for USDT and USDC trading on licensed exchanges and has created legal precedents affecting the global stubcoin policy. In the US, Sen. Cynthia Ramis has reintroduced the Bitcoin bill to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves to enhance financial security despite facing FRED in the face of objections from banking organizations. Meanwhile, Strategy™ announced a $21 billion mobilization through stock issuance, expanding the Bitcoin category and consolidating profits from organizations, as well as attracting attention from management agencies. These developments show that crypto is gradually integrated into traditional finance, and has long-term impacts on the market.

The market is waiting for a new push. When your beliefs come back, are you willing to seize the opportunity? Stay tuned for the next update from Bitfinex Alpha!

Don’t forget to follow the bitfinex Vietnam Community telegram, Twitter & Facebook To update articles, information and events as soon as possible!