Bitfinex alpha | Bitcoin trading becomes Targie

February 24th Bitfinex alpha | Bitcoin trading becomes Targie

Bitcoin has been trading in the $91,000 to $102,000 for over 90 days as market momentum continues to stall.

Volatility surged on Friday, February 21st, ending Buybit Hack news and the sale of the Sharp S&P 500 options, causing a 4.7% drop to $95,000 by the time it recovers over the weekend.

Throughout the broader crypto market, most major assets have entered the correction phase following the rally in late 2024. Bitcoin (-5.9%), Ethereum (-16.9%) and Solana (-33.1%) all fell in February from the November and December 2024 rally, while Memecoin, which spiked in December, fell by -37.4%.

The recession is exacerbated by macro-driven uncertainty and increased correlation with traditional markets. The failure to meet above the S&P 500’s 6,000 level has led to a decrease in risk appetite across asset classes, contributing to a decrease in speculative participation of the overall risk assets.

Bitcoin, SPX, and major crypto assets performance in 2025 (Source: Bitfinex, S&P)

Institutional demand has also declined significantly. The Bitcoin ETF inflow, which peaked at 18,000 btc per day in November 2024, was withdrawn by $360 million on February 20 alone, and $360 million.

This reduction in institutional involvement combined with a significant decline in leveraged trading activity indicates a wider market contraction.

Bitcoin remains a critical period after nearly 90 days of consolidation. As market participants await the catalyst, the next major movement in Bitcoin is determined by macroeconomic trends and may be critical. The US economy faces growing challenges as consumer confidence weakens, inflation expectations rise and potential setbacks in Federal Reserve progress in price growth. The latest study from the University of Michigan found that consumer sentiment has declined sharply, reaching its lowest level in more than a year. Households have higher inflation, with forecasts rising from 3.3% next year to 4.3% next year. This change in sentiment suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, which can slow spending and economic activity. The White House’s proposed import duties adds inflationary pressure and reverses some of the developments in discoveries over the past two years.

University of Michigan – One Year Inflation Consumer Expectations
Meanwhile, the housing market has experienced a slowdown, with new home construction falling 8.4% in January. While a serious winter storm played a role in the disruption of the project, the greater concern is the long-term impact of higher material costs due to tariffs and sustained high mortgage rates.

New Home Construction (US Census Bureau)

Builders are struggling to launch new projects as they reduce the profitability of their construction. The lack of new supply has kept home prices rising, further complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to reduce inflation to a 2% target. With no major policy shifts expected to ease supply constraints, housing affordability is unlikely to improve in the near future.

The cryptocurrency industry is a mix of bullish momentum and increased risk as key events shape the market. Strategy™ has announced a $2 billion convertible senior note that includes Bitcoin acquisition and revenues aimed at corporate purposes.

Meanwhile, the US Senate confirmed Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce. This is a decision that could potentially transfer regulatory attitudes to digital assets. A longtime Bitcoin advocate and Tether’s investor, Lutnick is expected to promote a less restrictive policy that could drive mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency. His stance on trade, particularly President Trump’s support for tariff policies, could have a broad impact on financial markets and impact institutions’ crypto investments.

On the downside, Bybit has been hit by a $1.5 billion hack, making it one of the biggest crypto security breaches in history. The attack highlights persistent vulnerabilities in crypto assets security. BYBIT guarantees its solvency to its users, but this violation raises concerns over the increasing sophistication of security protocols and cyber threats.