Bitfinex alpha | Beware of future profits!

May 28th Bitfinex alpha | Beware of future profits!

After a 32% drop from the historic peak in January, BTC rose by more than 50%, reaching a new high of 111.880 before entering the healthy rest phase. The strong landing of cash flows from ETF funds, vibrant participation in the spot market, and positive growth in net capital have created a sustainable purchase wave, not just speculative heat. The psychology of macro risk has returned, but in US news, especially it could impose an import tax of up to 50% on European goods, but Bitcoin still exists as a steel warrior, absorbing profits and releasing excessive leverage without serious collapse. However, with such a large increase, it is becoming increasingly clear that it could appear in large profits in the current price area.

This epic recovery focuses on the increasingly evolutionary role of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a property that is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations motivated by beliefs that do not rely on the short-term feelings of small investors. In particular, Metaplanet accumulated $104 million in Bitcoin and strengthened the story of expanding support from high-level organizations and policies for digital assets by proposing crypto-friendly legislation in Michigan.

The potential for Bitcoin continues to remain above the basic costs of short-term holders (approximately $95,000). This will be an important factor in determining future trends. Short-term profits of over $11.4 billion have been implemented in the past month, which ensures short-term oversupply is manifested, but structural demand is equally strong. The power of ETF cash flow, low volatility, and premium rates in situ markets suggest that the market is slowly growing, and are ready for a new breakthrough when the macro situation becomes more clear. I might answer the question next week: Will Bitcoin’s final breakout be at a local peak or just a prelude to a stronger increase in the third quarter?

Meanwhile, the US economic situation is darker than ever before. Long-term bond yields skyrocketed, and the dollar weakened mid-credit rating, escalating public debt and taxpayer risks shaking investors’ trust. Bond yields for bonds at age 10 and 30 years old exceeded 4.5% and 5%, reflecting skepticism about fiscal discipline and risk of escalating inflation.

The 30y/10y harvest curve – often seen as a growth signal – reveals fears of long-term risk rather than optimism. As foreign demand decreases and Fed support for bond markets gradually declines, the market is priced at a new era with higher interest rates and more fluctuations. The bond market is no longer responding to each news line – it sends a strong message. The ways to value risk are fundamentally changing.

Last week there was both acceptance from the organization and the motives set forth to achieve key steps. Strategic listed companies, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific, have accumulated over 8,800 BTC, strengthening Bitcoin’s position as a strategic asset in the Ministry of Business and Treasury. In particular, the strategy currently holds more than 2.7% of total Bitcoin supply, indicating a trend for more and more companies that view BTC as a long-term reserve of economic instability.

On the application side, FIFA is focusing on building another blockchain on the Avalanche platform and ending relationships with older partners such as Algorand and Polygon. The new network is compatible with EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine), which makes digital collections easy for developers and fans to access, and hosts ways FIFA can expand Web3 ambitions.

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