May 5th Bitfinex alpha | April Close Sets up Bitcoin in the Summer
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Bitcoin closed in April, earning a monthly profit of 14.08%, surpassing the historic April average, and reversing the course after a sudden revision of the month. The rally highlights the resilience of assets amid changing macroeconomic turbulence and risk sentiment, as Bitcoin rose more than 32% from its April low, nearing $98,000. Restoring the $95,000 level (lower limit of the previous three-month range) is currently a critical technical threshold. Holding this zone will allow us to lay the foundation for returning to the all-time high, especially as BTC integrates beyond the $93,340 short-term holder cost base.
On-Chain Data supports this story. Minor reserves remained stable, and Puer multiples mostly suggest incentives for large minor sales, indicating confidence in further benefits. Short-term dependency symptoms regarding whether BTC can convert this recall into sustainable support will continue to loosen the bullishness of the structure signal.
The US economy showed surface-level resilience in April, adding 177,000 new jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation increased, with key sectors such as education, healthcare and hospitality continuing to hire. However, wage growth slows to 0.2% per month and 3.8% per year, with job openings declining, and certain industries such as lost employment in manufacturing and retail are signatures of the cooling labor market.
These positive headlines hide deeper structural issues as companies may have “labor storage” after past employment struggles, and employment reports are considered as indicators of delays. Meanwhile, consumer spending appears to be stable on the surface, but the cracks below become apparent. A temporary surge in equipment investments has increased private investment numbers, but the broader economic momentum remains weak. Imports surged by more than 40%, widening the trade deficit, and reduced GDP by 0.3% in the first quarter. This is mainly because businesses will front-load their goods prior to the tariff hike.
Consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since 2020, with expectations indexes historically falling to levels related to recession. The growing concerns about income, job security and inflation caught up in the ongoing trade tensions have weighed heavily on emotions. As inflationary pressures from tariffs develop and household income growth slows, the US faces a volatile economic slowdown.
In the Cryptosphere, Nexo has rejoined the US market after two years of exit, citing a more favorable regulatory environment and political support, particularly under the pro-cryptostance of the Trump campaign. The company is currently aiming to provide fully compliant crypto-assisted financial products, reflecting a wider industry shift towards collaboration with regulators. Meanwhile, Arizona House could pass two bills that would allow the state to invest up to 10% of its funds in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, potentially becoming the first US nation to hold crypto in the Treasury and the retirement system, but the outcome remains uncertain as it warns for Gov. Hobbs to be related to a widespread budget. Throughout the Atlantic, the UK government has introduced legislation to regulate crypto platforms, emphasize consumer protection and transparency, and to strengthen cooperation with the US to establish a framework for transatlantic regulation. Finally, the SEC has concluded its investigation of PayPal’s Stablecoin Pyusd without enforcement action, showing clarity of the potential regulations of Stablecoins and strengthening PayPal’s position in the evolving digital asset environment.
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