Bitfinex alpha | 2nd quarter macro type and prospects are still very positive

08 April Bitfinex alpha | 2nd quarter macro type and prospects are still very positive

After a week ago, performance was relatively stable, but Bitcoin ended a week when it had almost unchanged, with only a slight decline that far exceeded traditional risk assets – it was clear that this was just a delayed negative response.

SPX, NASDAQ, DOW JONES INDUSRATION AVERAICT
Bitcoin from the beginning of 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The BTC/S&P 500 percentage has skyrocketed to a record high, showing relatively incredible strength, but the market is still in the sales phase. From the perspective of Bitfinex analysts, stocks are currently oversold, and a short-term recovery will help narrow the gap between Bitcoin and these metrics in the medium term. However, the trends in short-term sponsorship and open interest refer to future changes in Bitcoin. However, the foundation for the breakthrough at the end of the second quarter appears to be gradually forming. Once the major macroeconomic waves settle, ETF cash flows return and the narrative of sovereignty is re-exported, Bitcoin could escape dependence on stocks and regain its main position in the global risk asset group.

The US economy released work data in early 2025, building something more positive than expected, bringing a bit of a short-term joy. However, deep structural challenges are beginning to emerge as new tariff policies begin to strain manufacturing, price and labor market sectors. Job growth in March, led by the private services industry, hides potential instability when manufacturing and goods industries show signs of stress.

At the same time, tariffs (currently on average above 22%) have increased input costs in most industries, causing inflationary pressures and retaliation measures from key trading partners. Mortgage interest rates have led to a slight drop in construction spending in February, but inflation in raw materials such as steel, aluminum and wood has begun to tighten payment capacity. Production activity is in decline, with labor market indicators, particularly the number of hires and employment — showing a slower trend. The Federal Reserve remains cautious about inflation in uncertainty, but the big picture suggests that trade policy, not monetary policy, could be a major threat to economic growth next year’s quarter.

Average US tariffs (Source: Yale Budget Lab)

When it comes to news, the industry continues to advance aggressively. Japan is leading the modernization revolution by proposing cryptocurrency classification as a financial product and reducing income tax from cryptocurrencies to 20%. This is a move to promote investor participation and consolidate the country’s role as a global cryptocurrency centre. Meanwhile, Grayscale has applied to launch the Solana ETF fund spot, showing growing belief in alternative tier assets, paving the way for wider adoption of ETFs in Bitcoin and Ethereum. In parallel, BlackRock’s Buidl On-Chain Fund continues to dominate the cryptocurrency market, paying $4.17 million in March, holding nearly 40% of its market share. These parallel steps highlight the rapid convergence between traditional finance and blockchain technology, towards increasingly mature and accessible market infrastructure, compliance and friendly investors.

In short, macros are testing all the patience, but the light at the edge of the tunnel is still shining. Wait for what comes into the second quarter!
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