Bitcoin’s rough August wiped out summer gatherings. What September might bring

In financial markets there is little more excruciating than a discussion of seasonal indicators. Grandpa could be “sold in May and then away,” but dragged out every spring, but perhaps from Jesse Livermore’s days, traders literally sold in May, then headed to the beach in the summer.

A set of seasonal indicators have developed around the code, despite the fact that the market (a market just a few years ago) has too little observation to be statistically valid. Some of my favourites are that August tends to be a rough month due to prices.

But that’s where the deadline came – at least for Bitcoin, this time seasonal fans made it right BTC$111,846.73.

Despite continuing influx in spot ETFs, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has turned from Hawk to pigeons, touching on new records, and Bitcoin (Only a few hours left)this month we slipped 8%. Bitcoin, which is just above $108,000, has also fallen about 13% since hitting a new record of over $124,000 on August 13th.

The sale wiped out Bitcoin summer gatherings. Prices are currently just below the anniversary level of $109,500.

Capital is not infinite

This month’s poor Bitcoin record is in stark contrast to the etheric record. (eth)which rose 14% in August, making BTC better than a whopping 2,200 basis points.

The relative surge in ether came as it attracted a large amount of capital through the ETH Treasury and Spot ETH ETFs.

The ETH fund, launched a few months after Spot BTC ETFS, saw a much more modest inflow than the highly popular BTC vehicles. That has changed on a major road recently.

According to Bloomberg’s James Seyfert, ETFS up until August 28th this month saw $400 million inflows of just $429 million against just $629 million in BTC ETFs. That alone is impressive, but considering the relative market capitalization, Ether’s $500 billion is less than 25% of BTC’s $2.1 trillion.

In a world where the US Fed is modestly implementing monetary policy, higher tariffs make fiscal policy even tougher (Otherwise, it is called a higher tax.)capital is limited. At least in the case of Crypto in August, its capital was clearly directed towards the ether at the expense of Bitcoin.

Outlook

First bad news: Seasonal patterns suggest that September tends to be even worse for Bitcoin than August. According to GlassNode, on September 12th, dates back to 2013, Bitcoin fell to 8. The four times that BTC managed the progress that month, and profits were pretty modest. All in all, the September average for the last 12 years was 3.8% negative.

Good news: It’s December 12th, and that alone isn’t a sample size big enough to pay attention to. Additionally, at least seven of these observations (2013-2019) It was before Bitcoin was more than a fringe asset, and was on the radar screens of very few investors.