Bitcoin realised that it has grasped 200-wma: What happens next?

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Bitcoin has noticed that prices have skyrocketed above the 200-week moving average (MA) of assets. History says that it could happen one after the other.

Bitcoin has realized that for the first time in this cycle it has surpassed the 200-WMA

As analyst James Van Stratin pointed out in X’s new post, Bitcoin achieved the price, and the 200-week MA saw the crossover. “Realized Price” here simply refers to an on-chain indicator that tracks the cost base of the average investor or address on the BTC network.

If the value of this metric is higher than the spot price, it means that the entire holder is in a state of net unrealized profit. Meanwhile, being under the value of BTC suggests that the average investor is underwater.

Another metric shared by analysts, 200-week MA is a technical analysis (TA) pricing model that averages BTC closing prices over the past 200 weeks. As it is equivalent to almost four years of 200 weeks, this indicator is used to measure trend shifts in BTC over a classic four-year cycle.

Well, here’s the chart shared by Van Stratin.

Bitcoin achieved price and 200 weeks of MA

As seen in the graph above, we realised that Bitcoin has risen over the past year. This is a natural result of BTC spot prices following the upward trend. As investors trade at a higher price, they also value the cost base of the coin, which increases the market average.

After the latest increase in indicators, its value surged beyond the 200-week MA. The last time the former was higher than the latter was in the previous cycle.

At the time, the crossover occurred in 2020, and orientation remained in place until 2022. Interestingly, the timing of the crossover coincided with the start of the bull run in that cycle. In the 2017 cycle, the crossover did not precede the bull run as realised prices never fell under the 200-week MA, but a retest occurred, with the metric flying along the spot price.

“As the uptrend begins, bull markets also begin,” analysts point out. Now it is still unknown whether something similar will happen in the past, and we recognize that Bitcoin is seeing a more sustained surge than its 200-week MA.

Speaking of bullish signals, Capriol Investment founder Charles Edwards revealed that institutional purchases have recently accounted for 75% of Coinbase volume.

Bitcoin Coin Base Volume

Edwards notices an interesting pattern associated with this metric. “All measurements above 75% showed higher prices after a week,” the analyst explains.