Bitcoin prices have skyrocketed to $122,000, with standard charter projects of $200,000 BTC by the end of the year

Bitcoin kicked off at a strong rally in the fourth quarter of 2025, surged more than 10% over the past week. It’s now over $122,000 today, from around $109,000 on September 27th.

However, Bitcoin could surge to a record high if the US government continues to close. According to Geoff Kendrick, Digital Asset Manager at Standard Chartered.

Kendrick believes Bitcoin is a historically positive correlation with the US Treasury Term Premium, suggesting that cryptocurrencies could benefit from long-term financial uncertainty.

Kendrick noted that during long-term market stress, Bitcoin, a condition that often supports digitally rare assets, has historically shown significant resilience. In this case, the long-term stress comes from the extended closure of the US government.

Standard Chartered’s forecast targets Bitcoin at $135,000 in the short term, with a year-end forecast of $200,000, showing strong confidence in the potential for upside tokens.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $122,200, with its highest high in August at $124,480.

Bitcoin was ready for the rally

The possibility of an expanded US government closure adds another layer of market uncertainty, and often affects both stock and fixed income equipment.

In the case of Bitcoin, these conditions act as catalysts and reinforce their role as hedges against traditional market volatility.

Bitcoin has been trading sideways in recent months, but key liquidity metrics suggest that breakouts may be approaching. Global M2 growth, Stablecoin Supply Trends, and Gold’s Rally (where Bitcoin closely tracks with a 40-day delay) are all upwards.

JP Morgan analysts also consider Bitcoin to be undervalued compared to gold and estimate the theoretical return to $165,000 if “declining trades” (investment in assets hedging risks of hedge cleansy) continues.

With September coming up around 5% higher at $114,000, the historical pattern suggests a strong possibility of large-scale profits in the fourth quarter, supported by growing retail and institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs and custody solutions.

Data shows that positive closures in September have been followed by fourth quarter rallies, averaged over 50%, over the years, including 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024.