Key takeaways:

• A 2021-style bearish divergence on the weekly chart points to a potential 50%+ correction toward $64,000.

• Peter Brandt warns Bitcoin must reclaim its parabolic trendline soon or risk ending its bull cycle before reaching the $150,000 target.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) surge to a record $112,000 sparked renewed hopes for a $150,000 target by year-end, but its swift correction below $105,000 is testing that bullish narrative.

Is Bitcoin painting a bearish reversal setup?

Bitcoin is painting what appears to be an inverse cup-and-handle pattern, with its neckline near $100,800 acting as current support. As of June 7, the price has entered the handle-formation stage, eyeing a breakdown below the neckline.

Based on the inverse cup-and-handle pattern setup, a breakdown below $100,800 will increase Bitcoin’s likelihood of dropping toward $91,000.

The $91,000 downside target aligns with BTC’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave).

Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) has declined in tandem with its price, signaling strong trader conviction behind the ongoing sell-off.

As of June 7, the RSI reading was 52, reflecting a weakening upside momentum; a break below 50 could intensify downside pressure.

To regain control, bulls must reclaim Bitcoin’s 20-day EMA (the purple wave) resistance at around the $105,000 level. A drop toward $91,000 could effectively lower BTC’s potential of hitting $150,000 by 2025’s end.

2021 fractal suggests BTC won’t hit $150,000 in 2025

At a broader timescale, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is flashing a familiar warning.

A bearish divergence has formed between price and RSI, mirroring the 2021 cycle top, when RSI trended lower despite higher price highs. That divergence preceded a 61% correction toward its 200-week EMA (the blue wave) and below.

A similar structure is now visible, with a divergence forming just below the $112,000 high and a projected pullback target near the 200-week EMA at around $64,000, marking a potential 52% decline.

This historical setup casts doubt on Bitcoin reaching the widely discussed $150,000 target by the end of 2025, especially if the divergence confirms a broader market top similar to past cycles.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt adds further weight to this outlook.

In his May 2025 analysis, Brandt identified a rising wedge pattern and warned that Bitcoin must reclaim its parabolic trendline to stay on track for a $125,000–$150,000 cycle top by August or September 2025.

He notes that Failure to do so could mark the end of the current bullish cycle—potentially triggering a typical 50–60% drawdown following prior tops.

Gold’s trajectory, Bitcoin “bull flag” hint at a $150K

Despite growing technical warnings, some analysts remain confident in Bitcoin’s path toward $150,000.

Traders see similarities between Bitcoin’s current market structure and gold’s explosive breakout in the 2000s. They argue that BTC could mimic gold’s historic trajectory, reinforcing the $150,000 scenario.

Analyst Tony Severino cites a potential bull flag structure to predict a BTC price boom toward $150,000.

From an onchain perspective, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. believes BTC is approaching a critical “start” rally zone based on historical cycle patterns.

If the NUPL/MVRV ratio breaks and holds above 1.0, it would indicate the start of a new bullish impulse, the analyst notes, saying it could push Bitcoin’s price toward the $150,000–$175,000 range, similar to the rallies seen in 2017 and 2021.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

In 2012, a group of developers who eventually founded the financial technology company Ripple created XRP (XRP 0.03%), a digital asset that makes cross-border payments faster and cheaper. XRP is currently the third most valuable cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Former Goldman Sachs analyst Dom Kwok wrote earlier this year, “High chance that XRP flips ETH very soon.” As of Feb. 21, XRP has a market value of $154 billion, and Ethereum has a market value of $338 billion. That means Kwok’s prediction implies that XRP will soar 120% from its current price of $2.66.

I see two catalysts that could cause XRP’s price to double (or more) in the next year. First, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may dismiss its lawsuit against Ripple in the near future. Second, the SEC may approve spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) later this year.

Read on for more details.

The SEC may dismiss its lawsuit against Ripple

In December 2020, the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple. The agency asked the court to fine the company $2 billion because it allegedly raised over $1.3 billion by selling XRP as an unregistered security, both directly to institutional investors and indirectly through digital exchanges.

In July 2023, Federal Judge Analisa Torres issued a split decision, ruling direct sales to institutional investors violated securities law but indirect sales through digital exchanges did not. Torres ordered Ripple to pay $125 million, much less than what the SEC requested. The agency has since appealed the ruling.

The SEC filed its opening brief with the appeals court earlier this year, and Ripple plans to file its opening brief in April. But the lawsuit may be dismissed before that happens. The SEC has undergone a radical change since former Chair Gary Gensler resigned on Jan. 20. Specifically, the day after his departure, the agency formed a cryptocurrency task force to create sensible regulations.

“The SEC has relied primarily on enforcement actions to regulate crypto retroactively and reactively, often adopting novel and untested legal interpretations along the way. Clarity regarding who must register, and practical solutions for those seeking to register, have been elusive. The result has been confusion about what is legal, which creates an environment hostile to innovation and conducive to fraud. The SEC can do better.”

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to strengthen American leadership in digital financial technologies. The directive created a working group to evaluate the creation of a national digital asset stockpile. That may position the government as a buyer of cryptocurrency, which could legitimize digital assets and encourage adoption by institutional investors.

Here’s the bottom line: The regulatory climate has become more favorable for cryptocurrency companies since President Donald Trump took office. Consequently, I think the SEC may simply drop its lawsuit against Ripple in the coming months. If that happens, XRP could soar. Indeed, its price rocketed 69% during the 24-hour period after Federal Judge Torres handed Ripple a partial win in July 2023.

Image source: Getty Images.

Spot XRP ETFs could unlock demand from retail and institutional investors

Several asset managers have recently filed paperwork with the SEC requesting permission to create spot XRP ETFs. The agency has up to 240 days to make a decision, which puts the deadline in mid-October 2025.

Spot XRP ETFs would offer more convenient exposure than direct ownership. Rather than buying XRP through costly cryptocurrency exchanges, investors could buy spot XRP ETFs through existing brokerage accounts. By reducing friction, those investment vehicles could bring more institutional and retail investors to the market.

That scenario has already played out to some degree with Bitcoin. The SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, and the cryptocurrency soared more than 100% over the following year. Brazil recently approved the first spot XRP ETF, and if the U.S. SEC follows suit, I think XRP could more than double in value in short order.