A pseudonymous trader and analyst is outlining a key support level that could change his bullish thesis for Bitcoin (BTC).

The trader and analyst pseudonymously known as DonAlt tells 67,000 subscribers of the TechnicalRoundup YouTube channel that Bitcoin is “still hilariously bullish.”

DonAlt, however, says that the bullish case for Bitcoin could be invalidated if the crypto king falls by around 9% from the current level.

“You just don’t want to necessarily lose $108,000. I think that’s like the first warning sign that something is wrong…

But I’m not too worried just yet. I will be very, very worried if we lose this breakout [$108,000]. And then I’ll I’ll see if I change my positioning. But until then, you can barely see this pullback. It’s not even a pullback on the weekly time frame. There’s literally just like a consolidation.”

According to the pseudonymous trader, one of the risk factors that Bitcoin faces comes from corporations purchasing the crypto king for the purpose of adding BTC to their treasuries.

“If they’re done and they cannot buy anymore, that would be the end of the Ponzi, which would not be great, right. Because then I think that would basically nuke us. So that’s the risk.

I think it’s a real risk and it’s never been riskier in that regard. It’s just basically the reward that you get if you’re right and bullish, kind of equals that out. But it is, don’t get me wrong, like I think it’s a dangerous spot that we’re in. It gets harder and harder to hold, basically.”

Bitcoin is trading at $118,090 at time of writing, up by around 13% over the past 30 days.

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The artificial intelligence chip king, Nvidia (NVDA 2.33%), has been on a long, dominant run for several years now. The company is seen as the best picks-and-shovels play in what could be a game-changing sector that impacts nearly all aspects of our daily lives. However, a tough run this year and recent export restrictions targeting China have now sprouted the first sell rating from a Wall Street analyst.

Seaport Global Securities analyst Jay Goldberg recently downgraded Nvidia to a sell rating and issued a $100 price target, the lowest on Wall Street. Nvidia and the rest of the AI sector, as well as the entire stock market, certainly face a tough near-term macroeconomic outlook. Should investors be worried?

Nvidia is still a leader

Goldberg, in his research note, suggested that the upside from AI is “priced in for now.” Goldberg is also bearish due to his belief that the company’s biggest customers “are all looking to design their own chips,” and “it’s likely that AI budgets slow in ’26.”

The desire to have custom AI chips could be a trend, but it’s more likely that AI broadens its reach to a much bigger customer base that may be looking for third-party solutions to keep up with competition instead of outright being a leader. Nvidia still makes the most advanced chips, and it doesn’t look to be at any risk of losing this market-leading position. Even in China, where Huawei reportedly began testing a chip to rival Nvidia, it’s only going to rival the company’s H100 Hopper chip, which isn’t even the company’s most recent design.

Image source: Nvidia.

The rest of 2025 could be tough sledding for Nvidia, but the company’s valuation of 26 forward times earnings estimates is quite reasonable. Its dominant position, both in market share and innovation, should help it overcome near-term hurdles, making the stock a long-term buy for any investor who believes in the AI opportunity overall.

Plus: Consumer confidence is at pandemic lows

GM. We peeled back the layers so you don’t have to – today’s crypto market served diced, spiced, and slightly unhinged.

Bank of Italy raises concerns about crypto.

News drops: Australia’s fighting against inactive exchanges, the DOJ’s fighting against Celsius CEO + more

Market flavor today

The Consumer Confidence Index – measuring how average Americans feel about the economy – dropped 7.9 points in April, to 86.

That’s the lowest it’s been since May 2020- aka the early days of COVID-19, when everyone was baking banana bread… and… playing Animal Crossing (? Honestly, I don’t remember what we did back then, that era feels like a fever dream now).

And that’s not all – the labor market’s showing more signs of slowing down. According to the latest JOLTS report, job openings dropped in March, hiring and quitting didn’t change much, and layoffs dropped a little.

TL;DR:

Now, if you’re like, “uhh… I’m a crypto bro, literally why should I care “, here’s the tea:

It’s not just about these numbers – it’s about how the Fed reacts.

If the Fed looks at this data and decides to intervene – by lowering interest rates or making the money printer go brr – crypto’s likely gonna benefit.

Case in point: in Spring-Summer 2020, we saw consumer confidence crash and job openings drop → Bitcoin tanked below $5K → the Fed cut rates and pumped more money into the system → BTC soared past $20K by the end of the year.

BUT – if the Fed sees this weak data and still decides to keep things tight, it could mean short-term pain for crypto and other risky assets.

Cuz, y’know, fewer jobs + nervous consumers = people less likely to be bold with their investments.

So… now what?

We’re waiting on more macro data this week to figure out what the Fed might do next.

Coming up: Q1 GDP numbers and the March PCE inflation report. We’ll break it all down for you on Friday (because unfortunately, we won’t pull up to your inbox tomorrow… soz ).

Memecoin harvest

These coins broke every rule in the book – and wrote a new one in Comic Sans.

Data as of 05:00 AM EST.

Check out these memecoins and plenty more here.

The Bank of Italy dropped some of their thoughts on crypto, and let’s just say… they’re not feeling great.

Their main worry is that crypto’s no longer off in its own corner: banks and companies are getting involved, crypto ETFs are launching, etc etc etc. So if the crypto market crashes, it wouldn’t just affect degens – it could impact the “real” economy too.

They see dollar-pegged stablecoins as a big part of that risk. If one becomes too important – like, a core part of the financial system – and then fails, it could lead to people selling off US government bonds, which might cause problems in global markets.

And they’re also uneasy about euro-backed stablecoins issued by US companies starting to creep into European payment systems. They think that threatens the European Central Bank’s grip on the euro – a direct challenge to Europe’s monetary sovereignty.

Some big concerns on the table. Now, let’s decode that.

This whole thing isn’t just about “protecting investors” or “financial stability.”

Let’s be real: central banks like the Bank of Italy exist to control the money supply, keep inflation in check, and manage the TradFi system. So when they call crypto a threat, what they often mean is:

“Crypto makes it harder for us to do our job – and challenges the monopoly we have over money.”

Now, sure, if crypto becomes tightly integrated with banks and corporations, and something breaks – like a major stablecoin depegs or an ETF collapses – there could be real consequences for people who aren’t even in crypto.

At the same time, Bitcoin and other decentralized assets were literally built to remove the need for central banks. Of course they’re gonna be uncomfortable watching more people buy BTC, use stablecoins, or tap into DeFi protocols that run 24/7 with no central control.

So yes, the Bank of Italy’s warning is technically valid – but also self-serving. Kinda like if CD retailers would say that music streaming would destroy the music industry.

At the end of the day:

And both are probably right – for different reasons.

Who wins in the end? Well, Eric Trump said that TradFi is slow, broken, and outdated, and that if banks don’t keep up with blockchain tech, they’re gonna be extinct in 10 years.

But time will tell, I guess.

News drops

Australia’s financial crime agency told inactive crypto exchanges to either get back to business or cancel their registration. An official registration makes these dead exchanges look legit – scammers can use that for money laundering and scams.

The US DOJ wants ex-Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky to get 20 years in prison. We’ll see if the judge agrees on May 8.

We’ve got another win on the “Trump crypto product” bingo card – now his media company plans to launch a crypto token.

Crypto scammers are going old school – like, physical mail old school. Ledger users have been getting fake letters pretending to be from Ledger and trying to trick them into giving up their recovery phrases.

Duolingo’s about to be an AI-first company. The goal isn’t to fire people, tho’ – it’s to offload the repetitive tasks so they can focus on creative work and bigger challenges.

Changelly is throwing a 10-year anniversary party with a $100K+ prize pool! Open the Changelly app, sign up or log in, get a free spin (plus another if you make a transaction), and see what you won.*

*Sponsored

Juicy memes

I met a group of friends for brunch this past weekend, and somehow, the discussion shifted from our kids’ soccer tournaments and cellphone obsessions to the state of the economy.

Nobody knows what’s in store this year as tariff policies unfold and inflation does its thing. But the consensus among my group of friends is that things could easily take a turn for the worse.

Image source: Getty Images.

And I know we’re not alone in our thinking. Read any financial news site online, and you’ll probably see the word “recession” in at least one headline.

That’s an event everyone should be preparing for now. But should you keep funding your retirement savings if you’re worried about a recession? It depends.

You need to cover your near-term needs first

I’m someone who encourages people to save for retirement as much as possible and whenever possible. Not only will you likely need the money later in life, but you get a pretty sweet tax break for contributing to a 401(k) or IRA, so why not do it if it’s money you can afford to part with?

But if you’re worried about a recession — which people should be, frankly — then the most important thing to do is assess your emergency fund. And if it’s not where it needs to be, then it needs to take priority over your retirement savings, at least for a little while.

As a general rule, people are advised to keep three to six months of living expenses in emergency savings in the event of job loss, or to cover unplanned bills. I think it’s prudent to stick to the higher end of that range unless your job is extremely recession-proof.

I would also urge certain people to maintain an emergency fund beyond the six-month threshold. If you’re self-employed, that’s one reason to have more savings. If you lose your job, you won’t be entitled to severance or unemployment benefits.

I’d also suggest having extra emergency savings if your job is very unique, or if your industry has the potential to be highly impacted by a recession. If you’re a marketing director for a high-end fashion designer or department store, that’s the sort of job that could go away if a recession hits and consumers scale back on luxury purchases. It’s also not necessarily the easiest job to replace.

A short-term pause shouldn’t hurt you

I’ve been saving for retirement since my 20s, but there have been periods when I’ve had to cut back on 401(k) or IRA contributions to address more pressing needs. If your emergency fund isn’t strong enough to get you through a recession, this may be one of those times for you.

I would never suggest taking a five-year break from funding your nest egg (unless, of course, it can’t be helped). But taking a three- or four-month break from retirement plan contributions to boost your near-term cash reserves probably won’t hurt you in the long run. What it could do is set you up to avoid debt and other unwanted consequences in case the economy tanks this year and your job ends up on the chopping block.

For many investors, this might seem like the worst possible time to invest in Bitcoin (BTC -0.80%). After all, Bitcoin is now down nearly 25% from an all-time high of $109,000 in January. And tariff uncertainty and market volatility will continue to weigh heavily on the crypto market for the foreseeable future.

But all is not lost. In fact, if history is any guide, now might be the best possible time to add to your Bitcoin position.

Here’s why.

Bitcoin as a store of value

It’s not an understatement to say that, since President Donald Trump announced Liberation Day on April 2, the global financial markets have turned upside down. Even President Trump admits that investors are getting a little “yippy.”

Iconic American tech stocks have lost trillions of dollars in market value. The U.S. dollar is now trading at its lowest level in three years. The threat of a global trade war involving China has analysts frantically revising their forecasts for every single stock in the S&P 500.

Image source: Getty Images.

Amid all this market chaos, Bitcoin could become a safe haven asset and a store of value. That is the scenario that Bitcoin enthusiasts have been talking about for more than a decade now. As they see it, Bitcoin will begin to see record inflows if nations around the world decide to follow through on their “Sell America” promises.

If money is no longer flowing into U.S. government debt or dollar-denominated assets (such as U.S. stocks), where is all that money going to go? The obvious, no-brainer answer is gold. And that’s where things get interesting, because Bitcoin is often described as “digital gold,” due to its inherent scarcity and disinflationary properties. So, while the lion’s share of the money might flow into physical gold, another portion could flow into “digital gold.”

That’s why I’m keeping a close eye on investor inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. These numbers are reported on a regular basis, and it’s one of the best ways to tell if the “Bitcoin as a store of value” argument is resonating with investors. If record-high Bitcoin ETF outflows in Q1 suddenly become record Bitcoin ETF inflows in Q2, then you’ll know that investors are beginning to view Bitcoin the same way they view gold.

Bitcoin’s historical track record

Even though Bitcoin is significantly off its January highs, it still trades at a price of $83,500 and is only down 10% for the year. Keep in mind: Bitcoin was trading for just $70,000 on Election Day. So, over the past six months, Bitcoin is up nearly 20%. That’s not quite the massive “Trump Rally” everyone expected, but it’s still a nice bump.

But I get it — Bitcoin’s recent performance over the past few months has been disappointing, and at times, heartbreaking. Bitcoin started the year with so much promise and so much fanfare, and now it looks like it might become collateral damage in a global trade war.

If it’s any solace, a 25% downturn in the price of Bitcoin is nothing new. Bitcoin is famous for its volatility. It’s capable of massive spikes on the way up, as well as massive spikes on the way down. Over its 15-year history, it has actually experienced five distinct periods when it has lost 75% or more of its value.

But you know what? Each time, it has bounced back, better than before. After Bitcoin collapsed in value by 65% in 2022, it responded with triple-digit returns in 2023 and 2024. In fact, in both years, it was the best-performing asset in the world, and it wasn’t even close.

Should you buy Bitcoin?

Historical performance, of course, is no guarantee of future performance. But it does suggest that Bitcoin is far more resilient than many people assume. As long as you take a long-term perspective, Bitcoin could be one of the best investments you ever make.

Throughout April, market analysts on CNBC have been commenting on how willing retail investors have been to “buy the dip.” Maybe we’re all simply in denial. But it seems almost impossible that the “Magnificent Seven” stocks have been crushed the way they have, and that Bitcoin was at one time perilously close to dropping below $70,000.

However, if there’s one asset that was purpose-built for a volatile world, it’s Bitcoin. It was created in response to the global financial crisis of 2008. As a result, I’m going to do what Bitcoin investors have been doing for more than a decade.

Yes, I’m going to “buy the Bitcoin dip.”