Bitcoin (BTC) registered a 1.11% hourly drawdown after the Federal Reserve kept its target range at 4.25%–4.50%, trading at $116,320.13 as of press time following a quick visit below the $116,000 threshold.

This is the largest correction recorded during a single hour of trading since July 14, when BTC retraced 1.14%

Major cap altcoins registered the same movement. Ethereum (ETH) slid 1.74% to $3,712.36 as of press time, while Solana fell 1.90% to $173.51, XRP 2.52% to $3.04, and BNB 1.46% to $775.27.

The drop happened in tandem with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech following the latest FOMC meeting. He highlighted that tariffs’ pass-through to prices may be slower than expected, and the current numbers represent the “very beginning of tariff inflation.”

Powell reiterated that he has no intention of resigning and said the Fed remains committed to its dual mandate. Lastly, he stated that there are no decisions regarding a rate cut in September, despite President Donald Trump saying that he heard Powell would cut interest rates at the next FOMC meeting.

These developments from Powell’s speech added to the revising of a prior line in the Fed’s statement that uncertainty about the outlook “has diminished” to “remains elevated,” a backpedal suggesting lingering risks. 

As a result, traders stopped fully pricing a rate cut in October, given as the most certain.

Markets remain cautious

Bitfinex analysts framed the macro picture as mixed. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter rebounded to 3% annualized after a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. 

Yet, much of the improvement reflected lower imports rather than robust domestic demand, according to a note from Bitfinex analysts. Final sales rose just 1.2%, while core Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) eased to 2.5% quarter-over-quarter, and 2.9% year-over-year.

That backdrop leaves the Fed inclined to hold steady amid “persistent inflationary risks.”

With the Fed softening its confidence and highlighting elevated uncertainty, Bitfinex analysts highlighted that crypto’s relief bid lacked fuel. 

If policymakers continue to flag sticky inflation or question the quality of GDP growth, they expect a measured downside. As a result, Bitcoin could probe $114K or lower, with ETH also softening.

The analysts warned that in the post-FOMC window, traders should watch order-flow response, volatility skew shifts, and funding-rate dynamics for confirmation of direction.

Mentioned in this article

Bitcoin (BTC) whipsawed below $100,000 at about 4 p.m. UTC on June 23 and reclaimed nearly $104,000 three hours later as traders processed news of an Iranian missile strike on a US air base in Qatar that caused no casualties.

As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $103,801.74, up 4.5% over the past 24 hours after hitting an intraday low of around $99,500.

Iran fired a limited salvo at Al Udeid Air Base after Washington bombed three Iranian nuclear sites two days earlier. US officials said Tehran alerted Washington through back channels, allowing personnel to take cover. 

President Donald Trump confirmed the warning and called the response “very weak,” adding that the measured strike signaled an opening for de-escalation.

The absence of injuries blunted initial market anxiety. Bitcoin’s one-hour candle pierced $100,000 on high volume, then reversed as liquidity providers restored bid depth. By 7 p.m. UTC, the pair traded just below $104,000 on Binance order books, according to TradingView.

Range, leverage, and what to watch

Despite the recent volatility caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has shown resilience, trading above the six-figure level for the vast majority of it.

Bitfinex Alpha’s June 23 note called exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows “remarkably stable,” arguing that spot funds now act as a programmatic floor. 

The report pegged the zone between $94,000 and $95,000 as critical support, and the range between $105,000 and $110,000 as near-term resistance. Until weekly inflows re-accelerate past $1.5 billion or a fresh macro catalyst emerges, analysts expect prices to oscillate inside that corridor.

Derivatives data support the view of contained volatility. Futures open interest stands near $52.8 billion and options near $43.4 billion. Combined interest remains elevated at roughly $96 billion but has retreated from the $114 billion peak after a $14 billion deleveraging flush last week. 

Funding rates now sit in a “healthier zone,” suggesting capital is rotating into longer-horizon positions instead of short-term punts. The report warned that a renewed build-up of crowded leverage could trigger sharp liquidations, yet current metrics imply a firmer base.

ETF flows remain the fulcrum. Steady or rising allocations, especially during US hours when most spot-driven discovery occurs, would favor retests of the $110,000 cap. Conversely, a sustained week of net outflows would mark the first serious sign of rotational risk and could drag BTC back toward the mid-$90,000s, particularly if accompanied by fresh geopolitical stress.

Mentioned in this article

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin surrendered a weekend burst above $107,000 and was last changing hands near $103,200 in European trade, a $4,000 round-trip that unfolded in less than twelve hours. The leading cryptocurrency printed an intraday high of $107,111 during thin Asian hours before liquidity evaporated and spot markets on Binance and Coinbase slid to $102,000.

Bitcoin’s Violent Swing Explained

The volatility landed on the heels of Moody’s decision late Friday to cut the sovereign credit rating of the United States to Aa1, stripping the world’s largest economy of the last triple-A crown it still retained after downgrades by S&P (2011) and Fitch (2023). Moody’s cited an “uninterrupted rise in debt and interest costs” as the main driver. US 30-year Treasury yields poked above 5% for the first time since April, deepening the risk-off tone across equities and high-beta assets.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the ratings move in a televised interview on Sunday: “Moody’s is a lagging indicator. We didn’t get here in the past 100 days. We inherited a 6.7 percent deficit-to-GDP, the highest ever outside a recession or war. We are determined to bring spending down and grow the economy.”

Macro anxiety, rather than any crypto-specific headline, explains most of the pull-back, yet derivatives positioning amplified the swing. Coinglass data shows more than $665 million worth of leveraged positions were liquidated on the entire crypto market as perpetual funding flipped sharply positive into the spike and then reversed.

Dealers long gamma “seized the opportunity to lock in profits,” Singapore-based QCP Capital wrote in its Monday note, adding that the weekend pop owed much to “Metaplanet’s $104 million BTC purchase, alongside Strategy Inc.’s usual accumulation.” Still, QCP argued that Bitcoin’s ability to rally while equities softened “reinforces BTC’s positioning as a legitimate store of value.”

Flows into the ten US spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds underline that narrative. As of 29 April — the latest consolidated figure — the ETFs had drawn a cumulative $38.99 billion of net subscriptions and hold roughly 1.14 million BTC after another $591 million day of inflows, according to Farside Investors data.

Technical traders remain divided on what comes next. Adam Khoo, founder of Piranha Profits, reminded his 450,000 followers on X that previous US downgrades triggered 10% corrections in the S&P 500 but were fully erased within a year. “If the SPX drops another 10 percent this round, it would be another great opportunity for me to load up on high-quality businesses,” he wrote, musing whether markets will “panic a third time or be smarter now.”

For Bitcoin, the picture is less binary. On-chain data show exchange balances at multi-year lows, and options desks report persistent call-side skew — evidence, QCP says, of “structurally bullish” positioning despite the whipsaw. Yet traders eye the $101,000–$100,000 band as first-line support; a decisive break could expose the 50-day exponential moving average near $98,400, while reclaiming $107,000 would reopen January’s record high at $109,114.

Until then, the asset appears content to digest the Moody’s shock — and to let macro traders, not crypto die-hards, set the tempo of the next move.

At press time, BTC traded at $102,605.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.