This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Major cryptocurrencies are looking bullish, with market leader bitcoin BTC$114,140.02 exhibiting a classic inverse head-and-shoulders breakout that could propel it toward $120,000.

But there’s a catch. The daily chart for the S&P 500 E-Mini futures is displaying a bearish pattern, indicating a potential sell-off that could weigh on the cryptocurrency market and trap bulls on the wrong side of the market.

S&P 500 hits record high with rising wedge

The E-mini futures have risen nearly 5% to a record high of $6,542 since Aug. 1. The slow ascent has taken the shape of a rising wedge pattern identified by converging trendlines connecting July 31 and Aug. 15 highs and lows reached on Aug. 1 and Aug. 22.

The converging trendlines indicate that bullish momentum is waning, increasing the likelihood of a sell-off.

When asked to identify and analyze the pattern on the S&P 500 futures, Google Gemini replied, “When a rising wedge, which is a bearish reversal pattern, appears after an extended rally to record highs, it significantly increases the probability of a sharp downside move. It suggests that buyers are exhausted and that the rally is running on fumes. The pattern indicates that the market is setting up for a major trend reversal rather than a simple pullback.”

Cryptocurrencies are known to closely track Wall Street sentiment, which means that a potential decline in the S&P 500 could weigh on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Inflation eyed

The odds of a breakdown in the S&P 500 could rise sharply if Thursday’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) prints hotter than expected. Such a result, combined with the recent labor market weakness, may rekindle fears of stagflation—the worst-case scenario for risk assets—putting additional pressure on equities and cryptocurrencies alike.

The median forecast for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2025 is a 2.9% year-over-year increase (not seasonally adjusted), according to FactSet. If this estimate holds true, it will be the highest annual rise since January 2025, when the CPI reached 3.0% and well above the Fed’s 2% target. Additionally, this 2.9% figure would surpass the trailing twelve-month average inflation rate of 2.6%.

More importantly, the median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is 3.1%.

BTC, ETH options are already biased bearish

The 25-delta risk reversals tied to Deribit-lited bitcoin and ether options were negative out to December expiry, according to data source Amberdata. In other words, short and near-dated BTC and ETH puts traded at a premium to calls, reflecting a bias for downside protection.

A put option protects the buyer from a decline in the value of the underlying asset. A call provides an asymmetric bullish exposure. The 25-delta risk reversal involves the simultaneous purchase of a put option and sale of a call, or vice versa.

According to Options Insights’ Founder, Imran Lakha, the put bias in BTC is likely due to institutions placing long-term hedges. Flows have continued to trend lower on the over-the-counter tech platform Paradigm.

“Flows again featured the [ETH] 26 Sep 4k put, lifted up to 73v,” Paradigm noted.

XRP is indecisive, DOGE looks north

While BTC’s inverse head-and-shoulders breakout suggests a strong bullish direction, XRP’s price action appears indecisive.

The payments-focused cryptocurrency remains locked in a descending triangle and continues to trade within the Ichimoku cloud. Together, these indicators suggest a period of consolidation and uncertainty.

A breakout from the triangle might invite stronger buying pressure, potentially leading to a re-test of $3.38, the swing high from Aug. 8. That said, the descending triangle, by itself, is generally considered a bearish pattern. That’s because the downward-sloping trendline connecting lower highs indicates that sellers are progressively getting stronger and could soon penetrate the horizontal support level.

Speaking of DOGE, it has retaken the bullish trendline from June lows, trapping sellers on the wrong side of the market. Additionally, prices have crossed into bullish territory above the Ichimoku cloud, which suggests scope for a test of the July high of 28.76 cents.

However, traders still need to watch out for a potential rising wedge breakdown in S&P 500 futures, as a reversal there could cap gains in DOGE and weigh on its price momentum.

Ethereum is trading above the $2,500 mark but continues to struggle with strong resistance near $2,600, a key level that has capped further upside in recent sessions. After gaining over 23% since June 22, ETH has shown signs of strength, reclaiming crucial levels and riding the wave of market-wide optimism. However, as the broader crypto market stalls, Ethereum’s momentum appears to be slowing down.

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The bullish impulse that drove ETH higher in late June is now meeting headwinds. Despite holding above important moving averages and maintaining a short-term uptrend, Ethereum has failed to break decisively above the $2,600 barrier. Analysts warn that a failure to reclaim this level with strong volume could lead to a short-term correction.

Top analyst Carl Runefelt shared insights indicating a potential bearish setup on the 4-hour chart. According to Runefelt, Ethereum is forming a pattern that could lead to a pullback toward lower demand zones if momentum continues to fade. The coming days will be critical, as bulls attempt to maintain control while bears eye an opportunity to reclaim short-term dominance.

Ethereum Faces A Critical Level

Ethereum is approaching a crucial juncture following a week marked by volatility and renewed bullish momentum. After reclaiming the $2,500 level and rising over 23% since June 22, ETH has regained the attention of investors. However, the rally now faces a critical test: breaking above the $2,700 resistance level. A successful move above this threshold could ignite a broader altcoin rally, as Ethereum often acts as the leader for the altcoin market.

Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with bulls appearing to control short-term price action. Ethereum is trading above key moving averages and remains structurally bullish on higher timeframes. Yet, price has stalled just below the $2,600–$2,700 zone—a key supply area that must be flipped into support to confirm the next upward leg. A clean breakout could propel ETH into a new price range, allowing other altcoins to follow and break above their own resistance levels.

Carl Runefelt cautions that Ethereum is currently forming a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart—a potentially bearish setup. If the pattern plays out, ETH could fail to break higher and instead fall back toward lower support zones. Runefelt points to the $2,200 level as a key horizontal support that could be tested if momentum weakens and sellers regain short-term control.

For now, Ethereum’s price action remains in a tight range. A decisive breakout or breakdown will likely define the direction of the altcoin market in the weeks ahead. Traders and investors alike are closely watching ETH’s next move, as it could set the tone for the remainder of the summer crypto cycle.

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ETH Price Analysis: Key Resistance At $2,600

Ethereum’s price action continues to reflect a tug-of-war between bulls and bears as it hovers around the $2,550 level, just under the critical resistance at $2,600. After reclaiming that level briefly, ETH failed to hold its gains and pulled back slightly, suggesting sellers remain active at this zone. The chart shows Ethereum forming a lower high in the near term, raising short-term caution among traders.

The 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages are now converging around $2,500–$2,530, acting as immediate support. As long as ETH holds above these levels, the medium-term outlook remains constructive. However, any sustained drop below these moving averages could invite additional downside pressure, possibly dragging the price back toward the $2,400 range or even testing the 200-day SMA near $2,180.

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Volume has remained moderate, showing that neither side has taken full control. Until ETH decisively breaks above $2,600 and flips it into support, the uptrend remains unconfirmed. The next key resistance sits at $2,700. Conversely, a rejection from current levels could indicate the formation of a range-bound structure or a rising wedge breakdown, as some analysts like Carl Runefelt suggest.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Payment-centric cryptocurrency XRP

It has grown by more than 3.5% over the last 24 hours, and the amount of options markets placed on the Delivery Bit list suggests bullish expectations.

According to data source Amberdata, high-level July 25 call options on July 1, and September 28 expiration call on a $2.80 strike appeared as the most traded bets.

The call option grants the buyer the right to purchase the underlying asset at a given event price at a later date. This option represents a bullish view of the market. For example, the $3 Strike Call buyer bets that spot prices for XRP will surpass that level by July 25th. In Delibit, one option contract represents one XRP.

A closer look at the flow shows that the mass ranking of $3 calls is primarily due to purchase transactions. Over the past 24 hours, a $3 strike call saw a $2 million contract change hands in investor purchase transactions (The opposite market maker). Conversely, investors were primarily sellers or writers on a $2.8 call.

The $3 call is also the most popular bet in the past seven days in terms of increased open profits or increased number of active or open contracts.

According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Barkunas and James Sefert, increased activity on higher strike calls has resulted in a 95% chance that the US SEC will approve the SPOT XRP ETF, as expectations for a spot ETF debut in the US are tightening.

On Wednesday, Ripple, Fintech’s company that uses XRP to promote cross-border transactions, announced it had applied for a national banking license at the office of the Secretary of Currency. (occ).

“If approved, there are both states (via NYDFS) And federal government surveillance, new (And unique!) Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said in X, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is a benchmark of trust in the Stablecoin market.”

XRP/BTC Breakout

Bitcoin for XRP, represented by the Binance-Listed XRP/BTC pair, is facing higher as it is divided from falling wedge patterns.

Falling wedges are bullish inversion patterns, featuring two convergent trend lines that show a narrow range of price movements. The convergence of the trendline suggests that sellers are slowly losing steam. Therefore, subsequent movements above the top trend line are said to confirm the control of the new bull.

XRP/BTC surpasses the top trend line, confirming a bullish breakout. This pattern shows that the correction from the April highs has ended and the broader XRP bullish trend has resumed.

Wedge breakouts show that the path with minimal resistance is on the higher side, but the average popularity, 50 days, 100 days, 200 days SMA disagrees.

Both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs are heading south, far worse than the 200-day SMAs recently. However, be aware that the moving average is behind and takes the back seat for a bullish wedge breakout.

Read more: Ripple applies to Federal Bank Trust Charter, XRP Jump 3%

The structure suggests that bearish momentum may be weakening, allowing buyers to step in. With volume expected to increase upon a breakout, this pattern could mark a pivotal shift for DOT and spark a strong upside move, potentially starting a new bullish phase.

Why The Polkadot Falling Wedge Is Bullish

Crypto analyst Jascrypto recently highlighted that Polkadot has completed a breakout from a multi-month falling wedge pattern. Falling wedges are typically viewed as reversal patterns, and DOT’s successful breakout suggests that downward pressure may be easing after months of consolidation. This structural shift reflects growing optimism and signals that the asset could be preparing for a larger upward trend.

Jascrypto pointed out that DOT is currently testing the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), key technical levels that often act as strong resistance in bearish conditions. He emphasized that a decisive daily close above these EMAs would validate the breakout and signal a shift in market sentiment.

According to Jascrypto, if Polkadot maintains momentum and closes above these critical levels, it may pave the way for a rally toward the $5.5 to $6.0 range in the near term. This move would mark a significant recovery phase for DOT, attracting fresh bullish interest from investors.

In an alternative scenario, Jascrypto noted that the worst-case outcome might see Polkadot dipping as low as $3.120 on higher timeframes. However, he added that such a move could set the stage for a much stronger rebound, propelling the price above the $7 mark once momentum returns.

Momentum Indicators Lean Bullish – Is DOT Ready To Run?

Momentum indicators are beginning to align in favor of the bulls, offering promising signals that Polkadot may be gearing up for a meaningful move higher. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory, hovering near the midpoint around 50. This shift indicates that bearish momentum is fading, and buyers may be gradually regaining control.

Adding to the optimistic trend, the 4-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has shown a bullish crossover, where the MACD line crosses above the signal line. A move that often marks the beginning of a new uptrend or a pause in prior downside pressure. Combined, the RSI’s recovery and the MACD’s bullish signal suggest that DOT’s momentum is shifting favorably, setting the stage for a potential breakout continuation if price action remains strong.

Bitcoin has spent the past seven days trying to hold near $85,000, with a trading range between $83,200 and $86,000. Buying momentum has turned positive in the past 24 hours, but an interesting technical analysis of the current price action points to a looming downside risk.

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Crypto analyst Xanrox laid out a bearish case for Bitcoin in an analysis on the TradingView platform, arguing that the ongoing falling wedge pattern, often seen as a bullish indicator, may actually be a calculated trap set by whales. According to his analysis, Bitcoin could crash to $67,000 before another strong move upwards.

Bitcoin’s Falling Wedge That Might Not Be Bullish After All

Xanrox’s main argument centers on the widespread belief that falling wedges are bullish reversal patterns. Although this is often true when the wedge forms at the start of a trend, the current wedge is forming at the end of a broader trend, which is a different scenario altogether.

The daily candlestick timeframe chart shows the Bitcoin price moving inside a clean wedge structure while trading well below the 20, 50, 100, and 200 daily moving averages. This setup, according to Xanrox, paints the picture of a clear downtrend rather than a setup for a reversal.

The bearish outlook is not just about chart patterns; it’s also about market psychology and the mechanics of liquidity. Such a setup is likely being exploited by whales in institutions and banks with enough liquidity to influence price action.

These whales need retail buyers to create enough volume for them to offload or accumulate positions. By painting the illusion of a breakout, they can push retail participants into a false sense of opportunity, only to reverse the market and trigger stop losses across the board.

This outlook plays into the growing notion that Bitcoin is increasingly becoming more of an asset among institutions, primarily due to the rise of Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Chart Image From TradingView: Xanrox

20% Price Move For Bitcoin This Week

Xanrox predicted a 20% move for Bitcoin this week. A 20% move to the upside from the current $85,000 range would see Bitcoin trading back above $100,000 and somewhere around $102,000. However, this predicted 20% move isn’t an upside move but a downside move. Particularly, the analyst identified $67,000 as the level Bitcoin is most likely to test in the coming weeks. 

The $67,000 price level is the primary target if the current wedge fails as expected, as it is the major support on the way down if $75,000 is broken. 

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Even if the predicted 20% downside move fails to materialize this new week, there is still the possibility of the move taking place in the coming weeks. The analyst suggests Bitcoin may attempt to retest the upper zone between $108,000 and $91,000 before heading lower.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $84,280.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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The bulls are losing their grip as Bitcoin confirms a bearish rising wedge breakdown, threatening its recent gains. After struggling to hold key support levels, BTC has now sliced through critical trendlines, opening the door for a deeper correction toward $73,919—a level that could determine whether this is a healthy pullback or the start of a steeper decline.

With selling pressure intensifying and market sentiment turning cautious, traders are watching closely to see whether Bitcoin can find stability. If the bears maintain control, BTC could face even steeper declines.

Bearish Momentum Strengthens: Signs Of Further Downside

After breaking out of the rising wedge pattern, Bitcoin has extended its bearish momentum, signaling a shift in control from bulls to bears. The breakdown from this classic reversal pattern has triggered a wave of selling pressure.

BTC’s inability to reclaim lost ground further confirms the bearish outlook, as each recovery attempt is met with stronger resistance. The formation of multiple red candles indicates sustained downward pressure, with sellers firmly in control. This pattern suggests that Bitcoin is struggling to find a solid support level, increasing the risk of more declines.

Bitcoin’s technical indicators are reinforcing the bearish outlook, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flashing a strong sell signal. The MACD line has dropped below the signal line and is now moving further below the zero line, confirming a shift in momentum to the downside. Typically, this crossover suggests that selling pressure has increased while buying interest has weakened.

This recent breakdown has also resulted in a price drop below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a critical technical level that often acts as dynamic support or resistance. Bitcoin’s failure to hold above this key moving average indicates that selling pressure is intensifying, making it harder for the bulls to regain control. Historically, when BTC trades below the 100-day SMA, it suggests weakening momentum and increases the likelihood of further downside movement.

Key Support At $73,919: Will Bitcoin Hold?

Bitcoin is now approaching a crucial support level at $73,919, a price zone that could determine its next major move. This level has emerged as a potential safety net for BTC, and whether it holds or breaks will be key in shaping the market’s direction.

If buyers step in with strong demand, Bitcoin could see a bounce from this support, regaining lost ground and challenging resistance levels above. Its successful defense of $73,919 might signal that the Bulls are still in the game, creating an opportunity for a reversal.

However, if selling pressure remains dominant and BTC fails to hold this level, the risk of an extended downtrend increases, with the asset eyeing other support levels like $65,082 and 60,152.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

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The Dogecoin price could be gearing up for an explosive rally to $1 as technical indicators suggest the meme coin is about to complete its fourth Falling Wedge pattern. A crypto analyst reveals that past breakouts from similar formations have led to strong price rallies, with the highest gain of 445% recorded in previous cycles. 

Falling Wedge Signals Major Breakout For Dogecoin Price

According to Trader Tardigrade on X (formerly Twitter), Dogecoin is set to breakout of its fourth Falling Wedge pattern, signaling the potential of a surge above $1. The analyst presented a technical analysis of the Dogecoin price, using past Falling Wedges and historical price action to support his bullish outlook.

For more clarity, a Falling Wedge is a bullish technical pattern that often signals a potential trend reversal. It forms when a cryptocurrency’s price action creates two downward converging trendlines, signifying a period of consolidation during a downtrend, with the expectation of a price breakout or an uptrend continuation. 

Based on the analyst’s chart, the Falling Wedge has historically signaled strong bullish momentum for Dogecoin, with each breakout triggering a price rally that surpassed the last. After a breakout from the Falling Wedge in November 2023, the meme coin performed exceptionally, recording an 88% gain that pushed it to the $0.11 price high.

Similarly, in March 2024, Dogecoin broke out of its second Falling Wedge and initiated a rapid 208% price rally to new highs. At the time, the cryptocurrency hit a peak of between $0.22 and $0.25. In November, which marked the meme coin’s third Falling Wedge breakout, Dogecoin experienced a price surge, jumping by 445%, to reach $0.4.

Based on these historic bullish trends, Trader Tardigrade predicts that DOGE could mirror a similar Falling Wedge break-out pattern, potentially triggering a powerful price surge to $1.5. This would represent a 650% increase from its current price of $0.2, in line with past Falling Wedge breakouts that have consistently fueled higher gains. 

Analyst Says DOGE 2025 Bull Run Incoming

In another more recent X post, Trader Tardigrade highlighted that Dogecoin is experiencing downward pressure, which has caused its price to plummet by 57%. However, according to the analyst‘s report, this crash isn’t a cause for alarm, as Dogecoin has historically rebounded swiftly after experiencing similar declines of over 55% in previous bull cycles.

During the 2017 and 2020 bull cycles, DOGE experienced a 60% and 56% decline, respectively. After retesting a key level in both cycles, the cryptocurrency underwent a rapid price rally to new highs. Based on this trend, Trader Tardigrade predicts that once Dogecoin reaches a similar retest level, a massive bull run could be imminent. 

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com