The August jobs report is in, and depending on your perspective, it’s either worrying or the next big catalyst for crypto. While economists were expecting jobless claims of 230,000, the reality arrived at 237,000. Job openings also missed the mark, coming in at 7.18 million versus the projected 7.38 million.

Along with July’s figures, the August jobs report confirms softness in the labor market, which is bad news for the economy but could lead to the keenly-awaited rate cut the crypto industry has been waiting for.

Why a weak jobs report is good news for crypto

So how does a slowing job market translate into crypto optimism? The link lies in the Federal Reserve’s next move. Weaker employment stats put more pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.

When rates go down, borrowing across the board gets cheaper (think home mortgages, business loans, and yes, margin for crypto traders). This monetary loosening encourages greater risk-taking, new investments, and asset speculation, all of which are rocket fuel for crypto prices.

Sometimes it’s easy to forget, but crypto is more “macro” than most people think. Bitcoin and its siblings thrive in “risk-on” environments when investors are less anxious about the cost of borrowing and put that cash into something volatile or speculative. As soon as rate cuts look likely, traders pivot out of safer assets like bonds and chase growth, tech, and, increasingly, digital assets.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a September rate cut now sit at 97.4% after the jobs report numbers dropped. As crypto markets newsletter The Milk Road put it:

“Jerome Powell might as well pack scissors for September’s FOMC meeting.”

The market is practically begging for easier money, and crypto loves it when money is easy.

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Will this setup kick off Uptober?

Seasonality also has a role to play. For the uninitiated, “Uptober” is the crypto world’s nickname for October, when digital assets (traditionally led by Bitcoin) tend to rally. Why? Some of it is technical, some is psychology, but it’s become a self-fulfilling trend: analysts and traders expect prices to climb once summer’s sluggishness is out of the way. If you layer a likely rate cut over this historical uptrend, the argument for a bullish Q4 gets stronger.

Of course, it’s not all upside. Fed rate cuts can and do increase inflation. The idea is simple: cheaper credit means more spending; more spending, especially if supply chains remain tight, means higher prices. But the Fed’s balancing act means this tradeoff is sometimes considered worth it, especially if it keeps more people employed, even if the dollar is slightly weaker. As The Milk Road notes:

“That’s the balancing game the Fed is forever playing.”

Crypto investors are particularly sensitive to these shifts because inflation has both positive and negative effects on digital assets. On the one hand, inflation can erode trust in fiat currencies, pushing more investors toward Bitcoin’s hard limit of 21 million coins.

On the other hand, unchecked inflation can also lead to policy instability and market volatility, which is never a friendly environment for speculative investments.

With the August jobs report confirming a cooling labor market, the narrative is clear: the environment is risk-on and might just spell gains for crypto.

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Coinbase’s (COIN) softer-than-expected second quarter results triggered a sharp Friday sell-off, but Wall Street broker Benchmark says the drop is a buying opportunity, not a red flag.

Analyst Mark Palmer reiterated his buy rating and $421 price target. He argued that the exchange’s long-term investment case remains intact as the company continues to build foundational crypto infrastructure.

The shares are 1.8% higher in early trading Monday, after having closed 16.7% lower on Friday.

Benchmark highlights five catalysts supporting its thesis. First, Coinbase’s revenue-sharing agreement with Circle on USDC reserves positions it to benefit from stablecoin adoption, especially after the U.S. passed the GENIUS Act.

Second, its institutional offerings, including prime brokerage, crypto-as-a-service and derivatives, are well-timed because the CLARITY Act may spur further adoption.

Third, the firm is developing a crypto “super app” integrating trading, payments, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized finance (DeFi) and developer tools, a unique product in the U.S. market.

Fourth, the integration of decentralized exchanges expands token access beyond centralized listings.

Finally, Coinbase’s estimated $360 million in July transaction revenue, a 44% jump from its monthly average during the second quarter, signals a potential recovery in crypto activity.

Benchmark concludes the quarter’s miss is short-term noise. Coinbase’s evolving platform, underpinned by regulation tailwinds and increasing institutional demand, points to long-term growth.

Read more: Coinbase Slides Nearly 20% in Worst Weekly Performance Since September 2024

Shiba Inu’s

dollar-denominated price hit a one-month high, charting a bullish trend against Bitcoin. However, the outlook against its rival, dogecoin, doesn’t look as promising.

SHIB has gained 5.2% in the past 24 hours, reaching a high of $0.00001255 on Coinbase, the level last seen on June 12. As of writing, the cryptocurrency teased a breakout into bullish territory above the widely tracked 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.00001242.

Key AI insights based on the 24-hour price action

• Institutional flows drove prices from $0.00001215 to a peak of $0.00001250 between 19:00 and 20:00 on July 9, with an exceptional institutional volume of 1.25 trillion tokens.
• Strong institutional resistance has been established around the $0.00001250 level, significantly exceeding the average daily institutional volume of 491 billion tokens.
• An additional 2.54% institutional gains occurred during the final trading hour from July 10, 03:56 to 04:55, advancing from $0.00001244 to $0.00001247.
• A session low of $0.00001238, established around 04:15, indicates what institutional traders view as strong technical support within the $0.00001238-$0.00001240 range.

SHIB/BTC breakout

The SHIB/BTC pair listed on CoinEx, which represents SHIB’s BTC-denominated price, rose 3.70% Wednesday (UTC), rising out of a triangular consolidation pattern identified by trendlines connecting June 24 and July 3 highs and June 22, June 27 and July 4 lows, according to data source TradingView.

The breakout follows a prolonged year-long downtrend and indicates that the bulls have emerged victorious, having successfully absorbed supply during the triangular consolidation.

The pair, therefore, could continue to gain ground in the short term, supported by a positive MACD histogram, which points to a strengthening of upward momentum. The swing low from May 7, represented by the horizontal line on the chart below, could offer resistance on the way higher.

SHIB/DOGE breaks down

SHIB could underperform DOGE in the coming days, as the Binance-listed SHIB/BTC pair has penetrated a trendline support, marking the end of the recovery rally from May lows.

Furthermore, the Guppy multiple moving average indicator appears poised to cross bearish, indicating a negative shift in momentum. The bear cross occurs when the band of short-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) moves below the long-term EMAs.

The pair needs to top the June 24 high of 0.0000719 to negate the bearish outlook.

(Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.)

Ethereum is trading just below the $2,500 mark, struggling to reclaim higher ground as bearish momentum picks up across the broader crypto market. After repeated failed attempts to break past resistance, ETH now sits under heavy selling pressure, raising concerns about a deeper correction. Bulls appear to be losing control as overall market sentiment weakens amid global economic uncertainty and the persistent weight of rising US Treasury yields. Some market participants are now bracing for a significant downturn if Ethereum fails to hold above key demand zones.

Related Reading

However, not everyone is turning bearish. Some prominent analysts maintain a highly bullish long-term view, arguing that Ethereum still has significant upside this cycle. According to Ted Pillows, Ethereum could reach $10,000 before the cycle ends. From his perspective, current price action represents a temporary dip rather than a trend reversal, and accumulating during weakness is the smarter move for long-term investors.

While short-term uncertainty dominates headlines, long-term conviction remains strong among Ethereum supporters who point to rising institutional interest, declining exchange supply, and the overall maturing of the Ethereum ecosystem as reasons to stay optimistic. For now, ETH’s position just under $2,500 sets the stage for a critical test in the days ahead.

Ethereum Analysts Eye Breakout Potential

Ethereum is currently testing a crucial support level at $2,500 after repeatedly reaching the $2,700 resistance over the past few weeks. This zone has proven difficult to break, but bulls are still holding the line. If ETH manages to reclaim the upper range and close above it, analysts believe it could ignite the altseason the market has been waiting for.

Despite Ethereum’s underperformance over the past year, marked by a lack of sustained momentum and significant selling pressure, the recent price action suggests a shift. Over the past few weeks, ETH has entered a more bullish phase, supported by increasing on-chain activity and stronger demand.

Some analysts remain firmly bullish. Ted Pillows, for example, has projected that Ethereum is headed above $10,000 this cycle. While short-term volatility may cause concern, long-term conviction remains strong. For many investors, the message is clear: embrace the dips, accumulate strategically, and avoid panic selling.

Technical sentiment across the board is turning cautiously optimistic. Market watchers point to Ethereum’s resilience at the $2,500 level as a sign of building strength. If this support holds and bulls step in with volume, the breakout above $2,700 could be swift and aggressive.

Related Reading

ETH Tests Key Support As Bulls Defend $2,500

Ethereum is currently trading around $2,488 after a 2% daily drop, showing continued weakness below the crucial $2,700 resistance zone. The chart highlights a clear consolidation range forming since early May, with ETH repeatedly failing to close above the 200-day SMA, currently around $2,680. This long-term moving average is acting as a significant barrier, preventing any breakout momentum from gaining traction.

Support remains at the lower boundary of the range near $2,470–$2,500, where buyers have consistently stepped in to absorb selling pressure. This area coincides with the 34-day EMA at $2,386 and the 100-day SMA just below current levels, forming a dense cluster of technical support.

However, volume has been declining, suggesting that neither bulls nor bears have clear control. If Ethereum loses the $2,470 level decisively, the next key area to watch lies near $2,300, where the 50-day SMA could act as a cushion.

Related Reading

Conversely, reclaiming $2,700 with strength could signal the beginning of a larger move to the upside. Until then, ETH remains stuck in a range, and traders will be watching closely for a decisive break—up or down to define Ethereum’s next major trend.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) is encountering renewed market pressure as large holders increase exchange activity and investor sentiment deteriorates, according to recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant analysts.

CryptoQuant certified analyst EgyHash highlighted that the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the proportion of the top 10 inflows to total exchange inflows, has climbed to levels not observed since last year. 

This metric serves as a proxy for whale behavior and indicates that large entities currently dominate a significant share of exchange deposits. Historically, similar conditions have coincided with local price corrections, as large holders tend to front-run broader market moves due to their ability to influence liquidity conditions.

The whale ratio surge occurs in an environment where Bitcoin remains close to its all-time high but lacks sustained upward momentum. As price action stalls, the movement of significant volumes to exchanges may reflect a broader risk-off sentiment among large stakeholders. 

If whales continue shifting funds into centralized platforms, the probability of increased sell-side activity may grow, placing additional weight on the market structure in the short term.

Whale behavior also tends to affect retail confidence. High-volume transfers to exchanges are often tracked by automated analytics tools and flagged in real time across public dashboards. These signals can prompt smaller investors to adopt more defensive postures, potentially reinforcing downward pressure across spot and derivatives markets.

Sentiment reverts to pre-rally levels

Concurrently, investor sentiment has declined sharply, according to metrics from CryptoQuant verified author Axel Adler Jr. The Bitcoin Sentiment Vote — Up or Down chart aggregates trader and investor outlooks over time and has returned to levels last seen in September 2024. 

This period immediately preceded the market’s last major rally, suggesting that optimism has reverted to pre-breakout conditions.

The drop in sentiment follows Bitcoin’s recent failure to hold momentum after reaching a new all-time high. While some profit-taking is expected in such scenarios, the broader shift in perception suggests a weakening belief in sustained upside. 

This dynamic is reflected in reduced bullish positioning and a rise in neutral or bearish outlooks across social and trading platforms. 

A sentiment reset at these levels indicates that market participants are less confident in Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory despite strong macro fundamentals and continued institutional involvement.

Such dislocations between price action and sentiment often create choppy trading environments, with lower conviction on both sides of the order book. 

The combination of whale-driven exchange activity and waning sentiment highlights a cautious tone in the current market. Analysts believe interest from long-term investors and institutions will be key to Bitcoin’s breaking the current sideways action.

In a recent report, Bitfinex highlighted how “deeper-pocketed investors” must absorb the ongoing profit-taking action to boost prices, which seems to be happening.

After a streak of outflows, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered over $700 million in inflows for the past five trading days, according to Farside Investors’ data. This softens by nearly half the $1.6 billion in monthly outflows registered until March 20.

Mentioned in this article

Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Jason Pizzino is warning that Ethereum (ETH) may plummet in value for one main reason.

In a new video, Pizzino tells his 349,000 YouTube subscribers that ETH may decline by more than 47% of its current value after the top altcoin may have formed a bearish double-top pattern on the weekly chart.

A double-top pattern is considered a bearish indicator by technical analysts and suggests that bulls lack the strength to push the price of the crypto asset to greater heights.

“It’s really looking very, very weak here and like it wants to continue to fill in the gap of this price range, somewhere between $1,600-$1,700 and basically where it is now, around $2,100. So if you start to see a breakdown of these lows, probably going to come back and test this range, if not the range lower there, at $1,500 to $1,600. So really not great stuff there for ETH.

And I’ve mentioned before these two other price targets, $1,300 and $1,200, $1,166 – that’s basically your 150% off the double top, which I’ve shown [has happened] many, many times across multiple different assets: Bitcoin, it’s happened on the S&P 500, it’s happened on stocks. It’s happened on basically everything.”

ETH is trading for $2,231 at time of writing, up 2.4% in the last 24 hours.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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An analyst known for riding the 2023 crypto breakout believes that Bitcoin’s current consolidation will end with BTC bulls taking a victory lap.

In a strategy session, pseudonymous analyst DonAlt tells his 65,700 YouTube subscribers that BTC bears had many chances to drive prices lower in the past weeks after President Donald Trump restarted trade war talks and considered acquiring other countries.

According to the crypto strategist, any of those headlines could have catalyzed a deeper Bitcoin correction. But DonAlt says the fact that BTC is still trading above $90,000 despite an onslaught of bearish news makes him believe that Bitcoin is gearing up for much higher prices.

“I’m not bearish. My gut feeling is that this resolves to the upside, but I also acknowledge that as long as we’re trading below $101,000 or below the weekly mid-range [around $98,000], TA (technical analysis)-wise slightly leaning bearish.

I just don’t necessarily think it’s very conclusive, especially given how strong the uptrend has been and how weak the sell-off has been considering that Trump has basically been throwing around tariffs, been talking about annexing Canada [and] Greenland…

You can make a list and if you threw any of these items on that list at me two or three years ago, and you asked me, ‘Hey, how are markets looking?’ I’d be like ‘Everything is dead, you know.’ 

[But] then nothing has happened. It’s barely led to any sell-off, so it’s hard for me to be too bearish. I think just generally, it makes sense to be either neutral and wait for the momentum or be bullish even though the TA is not necessarily too bullish right now.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $96,310, down 1.43% in the past day.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney