The United States is sitting atop a fiscal precipice. With the total U.S. debt surpassing $37.43 trillion as of September 2025, the nation faces a historic reality. Nearly one-quarter of every tax dollar it collects is consumed by servicing the interest payments on its debt burden.

The relentless march of U.S. debt

According to monthly updates from both the U.S. Treasury and Joint Economic Committee, the national debt has soared to $37.43 trillion. This marks an increase of $2.09 trillion in just the past year.

The interest payments alone for FY2025 exceed $478 billion year-to-date, up 17% from last year, according to CNBC.

This expense is projected to account for about 23 cents of every dollar collected by the IRS in revenue. This is a staggering proportion that has risen sharply as global interest rates normalize following years of quantitative easing.

Tariffs: big numbers, small impact

Recent years have seen the U.S. government rack up record-breaking tariff revenues, especially after a suite of new import duties imposed under the Trump administration.

These tariffs are expected to bolster Treasury coffers and could reduce the national deficit by $4 trillion over a decade.

Yet even such windfalls barely dent the mountain of national U.S. debt, with rising interest costs outpacing tariff collection gains. The IMF cautions that “the scale of the increase in tariff revenue is highly uncertain,” while Eliant Capital posted:

“Despite tariff revenues, the deficit for July was $291B with the U.S. spending $630B and collecting $338B meaning 46¢ was borrowed for every $1 spent.”

Nothing stops this train

Macro analyst Lyn Alden has popularized the “nothing stops this train” thesis, a phrase borrowed from pop culture but now synonymous with the U.S. debt dilemma.

Alden’s analysis argues that persistent deficits and relentless spending make for an era of fiscal dominance and that substantive fiscal reform is politically impossible. In her view, the relentless accrual of debt is structurally built into the system, and nothing but a paradigm shift (such as hard money) can break the cycle. Alden told Slate Sundays:

“Just structurally, it’s [U.S. debt] growing above target almost without any way to stop it.”

According to the Peterson Foundation, interest payments are now the third-largest spending category for the federal government. They surpass nearly every other program except Social Security and Medicare.

As a share of revenues, federal interest payments will rise to 18.4 percent by year’s end, a level not seen since the early 1990s.

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As interest payments consume ever-larger shares of federal revenue and traditional remedies like tariffs and spending cuts prove insufficient, the conversation around “hard money” intensifies.

Bitcoin and other cryptos are increasingly viewed as store-of-value alternatives in an era of persistent monetary expansion.

As Alden’s thesis warns, nothing stops this train, and this realization is fueling renewed attention to hard money solutions like Bitcoin and gold.

Investors seek alternatives like Bitcoin and gold

Both gold and Bitcoin have seen strong demand as alternative stores of value amid fiscal concerns and inflationary pressure.

As of mid-September 2025, gold had reached an all-time high, trading at over $3,600 per ounce, up more than 41% year-over-year.

Some analysts expect gold’s rally to continue, projecting prices toward $3,800 by the end of the year as global liquidity concerns drive investors into safe havens.

Bitcoin, dubbed by many as “digital gold,” is trading around $115,000–$118,000 after rebounding from its September lows near $108,000.

While Bitcoin’s price action has been volatile, many analysts, including Lyn Alden, expect to see it to hit at least $150,000 by the end of this cycle.

As fiscal pressures mount, these alternatives are increasingly seen as key safeguards in diversified portfolios, in a time when U.S. debt is spinning out of control.

This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Major cryptocurrencies are looking bullish, with market leader bitcoin BTC$114,140.02 exhibiting a classic inverse head-and-shoulders breakout that could propel it toward $120,000.

But there’s a catch. The daily chart for the S&P 500 E-Mini futures is displaying a bearish pattern, indicating a potential sell-off that could weigh on the cryptocurrency market and trap bulls on the wrong side of the market.

S&P 500 hits record high with rising wedge

The E-mini futures have risen nearly 5% to a record high of $6,542 since Aug. 1. The slow ascent has taken the shape of a rising wedge pattern identified by converging trendlines connecting July 31 and Aug. 15 highs and lows reached on Aug. 1 and Aug. 22.

The converging trendlines indicate that bullish momentum is waning, increasing the likelihood of a sell-off.

When asked to identify and analyze the pattern on the S&P 500 futures, Google Gemini replied, “When a rising wedge, which is a bearish reversal pattern, appears after an extended rally to record highs, it significantly increases the probability of a sharp downside move. It suggests that buyers are exhausted and that the rally is running on fumes. The pattern indicates that the market is setting up for a major trend reversal rather than a simple pullback.”

Cryptocurrencies are known to closely track Wall Street sentiment, which means that a potential decline in the S&P 500 could weigh on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Inflation eyed

The odds of a breakdown in the S&P 500 could rise sharply if Thursday’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) prints hotter than expected. Such a result, combined with the recent labor market weakness, may rekindle fears of stagflation—the worst-case scenario for risk assets—putting additional pressure on equities and cryptocurrencies alike.

The median forecast for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2025 is a 2.9% year-over-year increase (not seasonally adjusted), according to FactSet. If this estimate holds true, it will be the highest annual rise since January 2025, when the CPI reached 3.0% and well above the Fed’s 2% target. Additionally, this 2.9% figure would surpass the trailing twelve-month average inflation rate of 2.6%.

More importantly, the median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is 3.1%.

BTC, ETH options are already biased bearish

The 25-delta risk reversals tied to Deribit-lited bitcoin and ether options were negative out to December expiry, according to data source Amberdata. In other words, short and near-dated BTC and ETH puts traded at a premium to calls, reflecting a bias for downside protection.

A put option protects the buyer from a decline in the value of the underlying asset. A call provides an asymmetric bullish exposure. The 25-delta risk reversal involves the simultaneous purchase of a put option and sale of a call, or vice versa.

According to Options Insights’ Founder, Imran Lakha, the put bias in BTC is likely due to institutions placing long-term hedges. Flows have continued to trend lower on the over-the-counter tech platform Paradigm.

“Flows again featured the [ETH] 26 Sep 4k put, lifted up to 73v,” Paradigm noted.

XRP is indecisive, DOGE looks north

While BTC’s inverse head-and-shoulders breakout suggests a strong bullish direction, XRP’s price action appears indecisive.

The payments-focused cryptocurrency remains locked in a descending triangle and continues to trade within the Ichimoku cloud. Together, these indicators suggest a period of consolidation and uncertainty.

A breakout from the triangle might invite stronger buying pressure, potentially leading to a re-test of $3.38, the swing high from Aug. 8. That said, the descending triangle, by itself, is generally considered a bearish pattern. That’s because the downward-sloping trendline connecting lower highs indicates that sellers are progressively getting stronger and could soon penetrate the horizontal support level.

Speaking of DOGE, it has retaken the bullish trendline from June lows, trapping sellers on the wrong side of the market. Additionally, prices have crossed into bullish territory above the Ichimoku cloud, which suggests scope for a test of the July high of 28.76 cents.

However, traders still need to watch out for a potential rising wedge breakdown in S&P 500 futures, as a reversal there could cap gains in DOGE and weigh on its price momentum.

Chainlink (LINK) surged 3% to trade around $24 on Monday, marking a beginning of a strong performance in September despite a broadly cautious crypto market.

Related Reading

The rally was fueled by two significant announcements: a landmark U.S. government partnership to publish macroeconomic data on-chain and Bitwise’s filing for a spot Chainlink ETF with the SEC.

The U.S. Department of Commerce confirmed that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will now release critical indicators such as GDP growth and the PCE Price Index directly across blockchain ecosystems like Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Optimism.

Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), which already handled $130 million in transfers this week, will play a vital role in ensuring data reliability across networks.

Government Data Goes On-Chain

The ETF move positions Chainlink at the forefront of blockchain adoption by governments. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick believes that the decision indicates America’s growing commitment to digital innovation, noting that the first on-chain data point published was a 3.3% GDP growth figure.

Analysts believe the integration of government data could revolutionize sectors ranging from automated trading strategies to decentralized finance (DeFi) risk management.

Mike Cahill, founder of Douro Labs and a core contributor to Pyth Network, called the initiative “a new wave of transparency and innovation.

By bringing trusted government data on-chain, Chainlink strengthens its role as a backbone for blockchain-based financial products, real-time prediction markets, and tokenized asset platforms.

LINK's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: LINKUSD on Tradingview

Chainlink (LINK) Price Forecast

From a technical perspective, Chainlink’s price action shows bullish momentum building near resistance levels. The token rebounded from $23 support last weekend and is now testing the $23.50–$24 resistance zone. A successful breakout above $25.50 could open the door for targets at $27.20 and $29.50, aligning with February’s highs.

However, analysts caution that a failure to hold above $24.20 may weaken the short-term outlook, potentially pushing LINK back toward the $23.00 support area. Still, with institutional interest rising after Bitwise’s ETF filing and government adoption underway, sentiment around Chainlink remains notably bullish.

Related Reading

As one of the few altcoins outperforming in a market weighed down by Bitcoin’s pullback, Chainlink’s latest surge may be a sign of growing resilience, and possibly the start of a larger breakout.

Cover image from ChatGPT, LINKUSD on Tradingview

Author

Julia Smith

Author

Julia Smith

About Author

Julia is an experienced editor with a passion for covering a wide variety of beats. She loves all things politics and regularly covers regulatory updates on emerging technology here for Crypto News.

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Last updated: 

August 18, 2025

The U.S. Treasury is calling on the public to provide feedback required by the GENIUS Act on how the government could help prevent “illicit finance risks” tied to digital assets, per a Monday press release from the government department.

U.S. Treasury Puts The GENIUS Act In Action

According to the August 18 notice, the U.S. Treasury is seeking comment from interested members of the public at large on how financial institutions can push back on unlawful crypto use.

“This request for comment offers the opportunity for interested individuals and organizations to provide feedback on innovative or novel methods, techniques, or strategies that regulated financial institutions use, or could potentially use, to detect illicit activity involving digital assets,” the U.S. Treasury states.

“As required by the GENIUS Act, Treasury will use public comments to inform research on the effectiveness, costs, privacy and cybersecurity risks, and other considerations related to these tools,” the press release continues.

Scott Bessent Shares His Take In New Statement

Following news of the request for comment, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praised implementing the GENIUS Act as “essential” to “securing American leadership in digital assets.”

“Stablecoins will expand dollar access for billions across the globe and lead to a surge in demand for U.S. Treasuries, which back stablecoins,” Bessent said.

“It’s a win-win-win for everyone involved: stablecoin users, stablecoin issuers, and the U.S. Treasury Department,” he added.

U.S. President Donald Trump signed the crypto legislation into law last month, much to the appeasement of key players in the blockchain sector.

“Let me say, the entire crypto community, for years you were mocked and dismissed and counted out,” the president continued. “You were counted out as little as a year and a half ago—but this signing is a massive validation.”

The move reinforces that the GENIUS Act isn’t just symbolic — it’s now becoming the framework for America’s digital asset strategy.

While President Donald Trump’s tariff war aims to spark a manufacturing boom at home, corporate America’s spending focus remains firmly on “bits” rather than “bricks and mortar.”

This contrast is evident in the spending patterns of the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) stocks – a group comprising large-cap tech companies, including Alphabet (parent company of Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms (parent company of Facebook and Instagram), Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.

These firms are expected to cumulatively spend an astonishing $650 billion this year on capital expenditure (capex) and research and development (R&D), according to data tracked by Lloyds Bank. That amount is larger than what the U.K. government spends on public investments in a year, the bank noted in a Thursday note.

If that number alone doesn’t impress you, consider this: the total economy-wide investment spending on IT equipment and software has continued to surge this year, accounting for 6.1% of GDP, while both private fixed and fixed non-residential investment, excluding IT, have shrunk for consecutive quarters.

FOMO and AI

According to Lloyds’ FX Strategist Nicholas Kennedy, the decline in investments across other sectors of the economy could be due to several reasons, including the fear of missing out (FOMO) on the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

“There might be some explanations other than a crowding out by IT spending and political/trade uncertainties that you could call on; the building boom that was triggered by Biden’s CHIPS act, which boosted structures, has faded, for instance. There is also a FOMO effect at work, firms encouraged to divert investment resources from what they traditionally do towards fashionable AI-related projects. So they’re just spending elsewhere,” Kennedy said in a note to clients.

The chart indicates that U.S. corporate spending on IT equipment and software has increased to $1.45 trillion, representing a 13.6% year-over-year rise. The tally makes up over 40% of the total U.S. private fixed investment.

The U.S. second-quarter GDP estimate, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis early this week, showed that private fixed investment in IT increased by 12.4% quarter-on-quarter.

Meanwhile, investment in non-IT sectors or the broader economy fell by 4.9%, extending the three-quarter declining trend.

From ‘bricks’ to ‘bits’

This continued dominance of “bits” spending in corporate America should calm the nerves of those worried that the administration’s focus on manufacturing may suck capital away from technology markets, including emerging avenues like cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin and NVDA, the bellwether for all things AI, both bottomed out in late November 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT and have since enjoyed incredible bull runs, demonstrating a powerful correlation between technology’s rise and the crypto market.

“Whether that [AI spending boom] generates a return is another matter, but it does reshape plans towards bits from bricks,” Kennedy said.

Moreover, the crypto market has also found a significant tailwind in the form of a favourable regulatory policy under Trump. The administration has demonstrated its pro-crypto bias through the signing of several key pieces of legislation aimed at clarifying regulatory oversight for digital assets and stablecoins, including measures that have garnered bipartisan support. Additionally, the administration has made strategic appointments to financial regulatory bodies.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s new Crypto Task Force will begin a cross-country tour this month to meet with small crypto startups and expand the number of people who are heard in crypto policymaking.

Led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, the task force plans to visit 10 cities from August to December, it announced in a press release.

The sessions are primarily aimed at crypto-related projects with fewer than 10 employees and under two years in operation. Meetings will be held in cities including Berkeley, Boston, Dallas, Chicago, and New York.

“We want to hear from people who were not able to travel for the roundtables that took place this past spring in Washington, D.C.,” Peirce said in a statement.

“The Crypto Task Force is acutely aware that any regulatory framework will have far-reaching effects, and we want to ensure that our outreach is as comprehensive as possible.”

The Crypto Task Force was launched in January under acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda, in a bid to develop clearer regulations for the cryptocurrency industry.

Read more: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce on the New Crypto Task Force