Dogecoin Sharks & Whales Have Been Expanding Despite Price Decline

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, Dogecoin has recently seen a rise in a couple of important indicators. The first metric of relevance here is the “Supply Distribution” of the DOGE wallets carrying more than 1 million tokens.

The Supply Distribution tells us, among other things, the number of addresses that belong to a particular coin range. The indicator for the 1 to 10 coins group, for instance, measures the amount of holders who own at least 1 and at most 10 DOGE in their balance.

The 1 million+ DOGE cohort, which is the range of focus here, includes two key investor groups: sharks and whales. At the current exchange rate, the cutoff for the range converts to around $166,600. This is clearly quite a significant amount, which is why the entities belonging to the sharks and whales are considered important on the network.

Now, here is the chart that shows the trend in the Dogecoin Supply Distribution for the 1 million+ coins range over the last few months:

As displayed in the above graph, the Dogecoin Supply Distribution of the sharks and whales observed a plunge when the bearish action in the memecoin’s price first started in January.

Since the start of February, however, the indicator has reversed its direction and has been following an upward trajectory. Interestingly, this wallet increase has come despite the fact that the asset’s decline has only furthered during the period.

The trend would imply that, although the big-money investors panic sold when the drawdown first began, they have since shifted their attention to accumulating the dip instead.

In total, the shark and whale wallets have gone up by 62 (around 1.24%) since the beginning of February and are now not far from the peak witnessed back in January.

The increase in the large wallets isn’t the only positive sign Dogecoin has seen; there has also been bullish development in another indicator attached in the chart. The metric in question is the Active Addresses, which keeps track of the total number of DOGE addresses taking part in some kind of transaction activity on the blockchain every day.

From the graph, it’s visible that the Dogecoin Active Addresses has jumped to a 4-month high recently, suggesting a large amount of users have been making transfers on the network.

While the increase in the shark and whale wallets has been occurring for a while now, the signal in the Active Addresses is a more recent one. It would appear that the current low prices may have finally caught the attention of the masses, who are now coming active to make their moves.

DOGE Price

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading around $0.166, up around 4% in the last seven days.

Some investors worry about an expensive market near all-time highs. But not every stock is near its all-time high today, nor is every stock expensive.

That goes for even certain parts of the high-growth technology sector. In fact, technology companies focused on the auto and industrial markets are actually mired in a nasty downturn.

These stocks boomed after Covid, but the rapid rise in interest rates has caused a steep drop in demand. In turn, many stocks focused on these end-markets have plunged.

But over the long-term, survivors in the automation and electrification industries should grow. And the following beaten-down stocks have massive cash piles, both to secure their survival in the downturn and capitalize on the next upswing.

Axcelis Technologies

Axcelis Technologies (ACLS -1.48%) is a worldwide leader in ion implantation equipment for semiconductor manufacturing. By infusing silicon with different ions, chipmakers can change a chip’s properties to enhance certain features.

For instance, the alloy silicon carbide (SiC) boosts chip performance at higher heat and voltage thresholds relative to traditional silicon. That makes SiC an attractive choice in applications like electric vehicles and infrastructure. Despite the recent EV downturn, SiC chips are supposed to be a long-term growth market.

41% of Axcelis’ 2024 sales went to silicon carbide production, with a broader 97% going toward trailing-edge chips used in automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics devices.

The recent down-cycle in these applications has hit Axcelis’ earnings hard. Earnings per share peaked at $7.43 in 2023 and fell to $6.15 per share in 2024. On the recent Q4 2024 earnings call, management guided for a 27% sequential decline in revenue in the first quarter 2025, and for EPS to fall to $0.38, or an annualized run-rate of just $1.52.

In that light, no wonder the stock has fallen 66% from its 2023 high of $201 to just $59 per share today.

But a few things to keep in mind. First, based on conversations with customers, management thinks the first half of 2025 will be the bottom of this cycle, with things improving in the second half of 2025 and then growing into 2026.

Second, Axcelis is sitting on $571.3 million in cash and no debt, or $17.48 per share, making up almost 30% of the stock’s market cap. Stripping out that cash leaves a stock price of about $42 per share, or 5.7 times peak 2023 earnings.

While Axcelis may not get back to that level of earnings anytime soon, it could very well get back there in a few years. Meanwhile, the company is still generating cash in the downcycle, which it can use to repurchase stock or perhaps make growth-oriented acquisitions.

While it’s hard to pinpoint a near-term bottom, long-term oriented investors should do well buying at these prices.

Image source: Getty Images.

IPG Photonics

Another cash-rich company exposed to today’s industrial and auto sector headwinds is IPG Photonics (IPGP 1.03%). IPG makes high-end lasers for welding, cutting, and other industrial use cases, including medical applications.

Like Axcelis, IPG has been in a horrid downturn, but IPG has actually had it worse than peers. Unfortunately, IPG had some production in Russia at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The stoppage of business and sale of that Russia manufacturing plant further complicated a recovery.

After hitting a high of $264 per share in 2021, shares have fallen 74% to just around $64 today.

But like Axcelis, IPG has a huge amount of cash. As of December 31, the company had $930.1 million in cash and no debt. That amounts to $21.86 per share, or roughly one-third of the company’s market cap.

IPG’s peak earnings were back in 2021, when it earned $5.16 per share. Shares currently trade at just 12 times that figure, but stripping out its cash, that P/E ratio on 2021 earnings falls to just 8.1.

On IPG’s earnings call last Tuesday, new CEO Mark Gitin said in 2025 the company would use its strong financial position to invest in technologies that will differentiate IPG further from competitors. However, he also said the company would be “less aggressive” with share repurchases this year. IPG has done a good job of repurchasing shares in recent years, lowering its share count more than 8% in 2024 alone.

Gitin only became CEO in June of 2024, so he’s likely looking to make his mark on the business. Given that IPG made just $7.8 million in a soft Q4, increased strategic investments could produce a loss-making quarter in the near-term.

Thus, it’s not surprising the stock sold off to 52-week lows on the news. But if there’s any sort of eventual industrial or auto recovery, IPG could rally in a big way. And it’s large cash reserves should allow investors to sleep well at night as they wait for an upturn.