Imagine it’s 1999, and markets are hitting high after high. The dot-com boom is in full swing, and investors are euphoric seeing the value of their portfolios soar. For many, the advent of the internet meant that “it was different this time” — technology stocks seemed like they would never stop their incredible march upward. I probably don’t have to tell you what happened next.​ ​

While it might seem clear in hindsight — maybe even obvious — it’s never the case when you’re living it. It’s easy to get caught up in the moment and miss the signs. And frankly, that may not always be the worst thing; bulls tend to outperform bears in the long run.

But with the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.05%) hitting new highs, many investors would love to know when the next crash is coming — I sure would — so it’s useful to look for parallels between now and major market downturns of the past. Were there specific warning signs in 1999 and 2007 that a savvy investor could have seen before the crashes of 2000 and 2008?

Margin debt hits $1 trillion for the first time ever

One potential warning sign is the money traders borrow to invest in stocks, known as margin debt. This metric recently hit an all-time high, topping $1 trillion for the first time in June and rising again in July. But then again, the stock market is hitting new highs itself, so margin debt isn’t setting records relative to the total value of the S&P 500.

​What is truly concerning is not how much debt there is in the market but how fast it’s growing. Between May and June, leveraged positions grew 18%, the fifth-largest increase on record. The only two-month periods with higher growth rates all came in — you guessed it — either 1999 or 2007.

Why margin debt matters

Investors should care about margin debt for two reasons. First, high levels can accelerate a downturn. Traders who use margin cannot let the value of their portfolio fall below a minimum level in relation to the amount they borrowed in the first place. If stocks keep going up, that’s not a problem.​

Image source: Getty Images.

If stock prices fall, however, and their portfolio dips below that minimum value, they face a “margin call” and must either add cash to raise the portfolio value or sell the stocks they bought with margin. Many don’t have the cash on hand to pursue the first option and must sell. This can cause a runaway downward spiral as traders liquidate part of their portfolios to “cover” margin calls, which in turn lower stock prices further, leading to more liquidations, additional sales, and so on.

The second reason it matters is that it is a clear barometer of investor sentiment. A rapid increase, such as the one that recently occurred, suggests that investors are chasing growth. They appear confident that stocks will only go higher and are willing to take on an unusual amount of risk to capitalize on that. And while confidence supports markets, overconfidence fuels bubbles.

Here’s what history says happens next

This rapid rise in margin was exactly the kind of warning sign investors could have looked for in both 1999 and 2007. History would seem to say that what happens next is a crash. However, it’s critical for investors to keep three things in mind.

First, this is a single indicator in what is an incredibly complex market. If you look hard enough, you can probably find numbers that parallel just about any year. It’s more than possible that a crash does not follow in the near term, and the bull run continues.

Second, there are numerous ways in which the market of 2025 differs from those of 2007 and 1999. The companies at the top of the food chain, like Nvidia and Microsoft, are mature companies with robust earnings and valuations that are significantly lower than those of a company like Cisco in 1999. In 2007, the risks posed by a housing market collapse went well beyond the market and equity prices. They were systemwide risks to the very foundation of the real economy.

And finally, even if this is a bubble, timing markets is almost never a winning strategy. Bubbles can keep going for quite some time. So, the lesson history has to offer here is that you should always look to invest in a diverse portfolio of solid companies for the long haul, rather than chasing the latest fad. This gives you the confidence and peace of mind to weather the natural ups and downs of the market — even the big ones.​

WisdomTree has unveiled a tokenized investment vehicle to bring private credit directly onto blockchain rails.

The WisdomTree Private Credit and Alternative Income Digital Fund (CRDT) launched Sept. 12 on Ethereum and Stellar blockchains. It will be available to investors through the company’s Prime and Connect platforms.

WisdomTree’s CRDT

According to the statement, the fund’s performance mirrors the Gapstow Private Credit and Alternative Income Index (GLACI). Subscriptions settle instantly (T+0), redemptions finalize in two days (T+2), and the minimum investment threshold is set at $25.

Will Peck, Head of Digital Assets at WisdomTree, said:

“CRDT unlocks access to one of the most coveted asset classes – alternatives – directly onchain. By expanding the breadth of our tokenized funds, we’re giving crypto native investors the chance to diversify via exposures that were once reserved for institutions, all within the digital ecosystem.”

The move highlights how asset managers are accelerating the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). According to RWA.xyz, this trend has already pushed the total value of tokenized instruments on-chain to nearly $30 billion.

By turning private credit into a digital product, WisdomTree aims to shorten settlement cycles, offer greater transparency, and keep markets accessible around the clock.

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Bringing Private Credit on-chain

Private credit, a form of debt financing provided outside traditional banks and public bond markets, has become one of the fastest-expanding areas in global finance.

Over the past years, companies have increasingly relied on it for tailored loans and flexible repayment schedules, fueling a market now valued at more than $1 trillion.

According to RWA.xyz data, the sector already dominates tokenized assets, accounting for over half of the $29 billion total. Provenance blockchain’s Figure platform controls the largest share at about $17 billion.

With CRDT, WisdomTree seeks to carve out space in this growing segment by offering a transparent, blockchain-based structure for investors who want exposure to private credit without the hurdles of institutional gatekeeping.

Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree, said:

““Private credit has become one of the most talked-about opportunities in today’s market. For four years, we’ve been proud to make this space more accessible to the individual investor through our ETF, and now CRDT is able to deliver yield potential in a modern, tokenized fund.”

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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s adviser, Dmitry Kobyakov, accused the US of orchestrating a crypto strategy to eliminate its $35 trillion national debt through the manipulation of stablecoins.

During his speech at the Eastern Economic Forum on Sept. 6, Kobyakov claimed that Washington seeks to “rewrite the rules of the gold and crypto markets” as alternatives to traditional currency systems while addressing declining dollar confidence.

The debt problem

The adviser drew parallels to historical US debt strategies from the 1930s and 1970s, arguing America plans to solve financial problems “at the world’s expense.”

He stated:

“The US plans to solve its financial problems at the world’s expense—this time by pushing everyone into the ‘crypto cloud’. Over time, once part of the US national debt is placed into stablecoins, Washington will devalue that debt.”

He described a multi-stage process where the US would transfer its currency debt into crypto instruments before implementing devaluation.

Kobyakov characterized this as a deliberate scheme to eliminate sovereign obligations through digital asset manipulation:

“They have a $35 trillion currency debt, they’ll move it into the crypto cloud, devalue it—and start from scratch.”

The accusations come amid increased global interest in stablecoins, propelled by thriving regulation in the US. In July, President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, creating a regulatory framework for these dollar-pegged tokens.

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Strategic tool

However, Kobyakov positioned crypto adoption as a strategic tool rather than a technological innovation, suggesting that the US promotion of digital assets serves debt management objectives.

The adviser warned that global crypto enthusiasm enables Washington’s alleged financial restructuring plans.

The Eastern Economic Forum, held annually in Vladivostok, serves as Russia’s primary platform for discussing Asia-Pacific economic cooperation and alternative financial systems.

Kobyakov’s remarks reflect ongoing Russian criticism of US monetary policy and dollar dominance.

The accusations align with Russian narratives challenging Western financial infrastructure following international sanctions. Moscow has promoted alternative payment systems and criticized dollar-based settlement mechanisms since 2014.

Kobyakov’s claims reflect broader tensions over global financial architecture as countries explore central bank digital currencies and alternative monetary systems.

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Bitcoin’s mining math hit a fresh high this week as the network’s difficulty climbed to a new all-time peak of 135 trillion. Miners now need more computing work than ever to win a block, while the overall hashpower available to the network has slipped from its summer peak.

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Mining Difficulty Reaches New High

According to on-chain data, network hashrate fell to 967 billion hashes per second after topping 1 trillion hashes per second on August 4. That gap — rising difficulty paired with a lower hashrate — tightens margins for miners.

Reports have disclosed that higher difficulty makes mining more costly, and the pressure is felt most by smaller operations that run on narrow profit margins.

Big miners have room to scale. Smaller teams do not. Costs for electricity, machines and maintenance add up fast. The situation raises concern about concentration. As the cost to operate rises, larger pools and firms are better positioned to absorb the pain and keep hashing.

Solo Miners Still Score Big

Despite those headwinds, Three solo miners managed to land blocks in July and August, proving the system still hands out rewards to individuals now and then. Reports show the block subsidy is 3.125 BTC per block. On July three, a solo miner found block 903,883 and took home just under $350,000 in subsidy plus fees.

Another solo miner added block 907,283 on July 26, claiming over $373,000 when prices at the time were used to value the reward. On August 17, block 910,440 was mined by a solo operator, yielding roughly $373,000 in subsidy and fees.

Those payouts highlight two facts. First, solo success is rare but possible. Second, occasional large rewards do not erase the steady advantage of scale. Pools still smooth earnings for participants, and many miners use them to avoid long dry spells.

Seasonality And Market Patterns

Meanwhile, September has a poor historical record for Bitcoin, with an average return of -3.77% across 12 years beginning in 2013, researchers say.

Bitcoin endured six straight losing Septembers from 2017 through 2022. The streak reversed in 2023, and 2024 closed out as the best September on record at +7.29%.

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What This Means Now

In short, the network’s math is becoming tougher at the same time mining capacity dipped slightly. That creates tighter margins and fuels debate over centralization as scale matters more.

Yet the ecosystem still shows variety: solo miners can and do win blocks, and market history gives investors a mixed picture where seasonal trends matter but do not guarantee outcomes.

For now, miners and market watchers alike will be tracking difficulty, hashrate and price swings as the fall unfolds.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The market for tokenized equities could expand to nearly $190 trillion within the next 20 years, according to new projections from Galaxy Research.

Galaxy made this projection after it became one of the first public companies to tokenize its stock on the Solana blockchain via Superstate, which specializes in compliant tokenization infrastructure.

Speaking on the move, Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s Head of Research, said:

“Onchain GLXY is real Galaxy Class A Common Stock. If you hold the token, you own common equity in galaxy, the same as if you bought our stock through in your traditional brokerage account. no publicly traded company has ever done this before in the US.”

As of press time, 32,374 Galaxy Class A shares had been issued on Solana, held by 21 token holders, according to Dune Analytics data.

According to the firm, this move illustrates its conviction that tokenization is viable and a potential blueprint for how listed companies may enhance market accessibility.

‘Uniswap moment’

Considering this, the firm modeled bear, base, and bull scenarios to illustrate how blockchain adoption may reshape financial markets once decentralized trading achieves critical mass.

Galaxy describes the tipping point as a “Uniswap moment,” when on-chain trading is widely regarded as fairer, faster, cheaper, and safer than legacy structures. At that stage, traditional centralized exchanges would gradually lose market share to blockchain-based platforms.

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In its near-term outlook, Galaxy expects tokenized equities to represent between 0.7% and 4.6% of US market capitalization within the first two years of adoption—equivalent to $0.5 trillion to $3.3 trillion.

Under a bullish 10-year scenario, tokenized shares could capture 40% of the market, worth almost $50 trillion.

Meanwhile, the forecasts diverge further over two decades. A bear case sees tokenization reaching 12% of the US equity market, or $29.5 trillion, while the bull case envisions as much as 78% penetration or an estimated $189.9 trillion.

Interestingly, the firm said trading activities could follow a similar trajectory.

In the most optimistic scenario, Galaxy projects that tokenized equities may account for 93% of all US equity trading volume, fundamentally altering liquidity, settlement times, and investor access.

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Decentralized exchanges (DEX) processed a combined $1.15 trillion in spot and perpetual contract volumes during August, marking the first time monthly DEX activity surpassed the $1 trillion threshold.

According to DefiLlama data, spot DEX volumes reached $506.3 billion in August, falling just $1.5 billion short of the all-time high of $507.8 billion recorded in January.

The August figure represents an 18.4% increase from July’s trading activity, demonstrating sustained growth in on-chain spot trading.

Perpetual contract volumes drove the record-breaking performance, reaching $648.6 billion in August, a 31.3% jump from July and an absolute all-time high for the derivative product category.

The perpetuals surge accounted for 56.4% of total DEX volume during the month.

Ethereum reclaims spot leadership

August marked the first time since March that Ethereum overtook Solana and BNB Chain in spot on-chain trading volume.

Ethereum processed $140.4 billion in monthly spot volume, while Solana registered nearly $120 billion. BNB Chain rounded out the top three with approximately $60 billion in spot trading activity.

Uniswap maintained its position as the dominant spot DEX protocol, capturing 28.2% of total volumes with over $143 billion processed in August. PancakeSwap secured second place with $56.6 billion, while Hyperliquid completed the top three with $21.7 billion in spot volume.

The perpetual landscape showed even greater concentration, with Hyperliquid establishing absolute dominance by capturing 62.5% of the market through its $405.8 billion in monthly volume.

Ethereum-based perpetual protocols processed $72.5 billion, securing second place, while BNB Chain platforms generated $55.1 billion.

Among other perpetual protocols, edgeX captured $43.6 billion in trading volume, while Orderly processed $23.7 billion during August.

The spot volume increase drove the DEX-to-CEX trading ratio up by 0.7% to 17.2% in August. Throughout 2025, this ratio has consistently remained above 10%, indicating sustained adoption of on-chain trading infrastructure.

These numbers indicate a growing acceptance of decentralized trading venues, potentially driven by improved user experience across major DEX platforms.

The $1.1 trillion monthly volume achievement positions decentralized exchanges as a permanent fixture in the cryptocurrency market structure, with perpetuals trading finally receiving attention similar to that of their centralized counterparts.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s endorsement of dollar-pegged stablecoins creates a pathway for up to $34 trillion to flow into decentralized finance protocols such as Ethena, Ether.fi, and Hyperliquid.

Arthur Hayes reported in his Aug. 27 blog post that Bessent aims to redirect capital from the $13 trillion Eurodollar system and $21 trillion in Global South retail deposits into stablecoin infrastructure that purchases Treasury bills.

Yet, he said that this strategy addresses two problems: the Treasury’s inability to track Eurodollar flows and the need for price-insensitive buyers of government debt.

The plan leverages US social media platforms as distribution channels for stablecoin adoption. Meta’s WhatsApp could deploy crypto wallets to billions of users worldwide, enabling seamless transactions with stablecoins while bypassing local banking systems.

DeFi protocols positioned for “secular rise”

Stablecoin issuers must invest deposits in Treasury bills to maintain dollar parity, creating guaranteed demand for government debt.

Tether earns a net interest margin of 4.25% to 4.5% by holding T-bills, while paying no interest on USDT tokens. This business model scales directly with deposit growth, providing Bessent with price-insensitive buyers for short-term government securities.

Bessent can weaponize dollar dominance to force compliance with the adoption of stablecoins.

One example mentioned by Hayes is threatening to exclude foreign banks from Federal Reserve swap lines during financial crises. This move would push Eurodollar deposits toward US-regulated stablecoin platforms.

In the case, Hayes projects a total stablecoin circulation of $10 trillion by 2028. In this scenario, he argued that three protocols are poised for a “secular rise.”

The first is Ethena, which operates the synthetic dollar system USDe to generate yields by shorting crypto derivatives against long positions. As of press time, Ethena had $12.4 billion in total value locked (TVL) in the protocol.

Road to 25% market share

The analysis forecasts that USDe could achieve a 25% market share of total stablecoins, potentially reaching a supply of $2.5 trillion.

Hayes also mentioned Ether.fi. The protocol offers stablecoin spending through Visa-powered debit cards, allowing users to spend their crypto anywhere Visa is accepted.

The platform earns revenue at a ratio comparable to JPMorgan’s 1.78% fee-to-deposit ratio and can also capture decent value in the expansion of the US dollar-pegged stablecoin market.

The third protocol mentioned in the post is Hyperliquid. The protocol dominates decentralized perpetual trading, with a 63% market share.

In addition, Hayes cited that Hyperliquid processes daily volume representing 26.4% of the total stablecoin supply in trading activity.

Considering his $10 trillion prediction, the way these three protocols interact with stablecoins could heavily benefit them and their native tokens.

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After multiple days of declining momentum, interest in the Shiba Inu derivatives market appears to be back in flames. Data from Coinglass has shown a notable increase in the Shiba Inu open interest over the last day.

According to the data, the dog-themed meme token has seen its open interest resurge back to a massive 13.93 trillion SHIB after hitting significant lows in the previous days. This marks a significant increase of 4.31% over the last day, signaling renewed optimism among SHIB enthusiasts.

$182 million in SHIB bets

Following the surge in SHIB’s derivatives activities, it appears that SHIB traders are increasingly willing to open new positions to bet on the asset’s price potential. This suggests that confidence has been restored to the SHIB community, posing the price of the token for more upsurge.

Per SHIB’s trading price as of August 27, the total amount of SHIB committed in its active futures contracts is worth over $182 million according to data provided by the source.

Nonetheless, it is important to note that the SHIB open interest indicates the total number of unsettled SHIB futures contracts or options contracts. As such, the aforementioned figure covers the total amount of funds invested by small and large investors in Shiba Inu derivatives as of August 27.

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The surge in SHIB’s open interest coincides with the broad crypto market price rebound which saw the price of the leading meme asset surge as high as $0.00001263 on Wednesday.

While momentum appears to be cooling, data from CoinMarketCap shows that the asset has surged to $0.00001250 as of press time after trading for less in the previous days. As such, SHIB has shown a 24-hour increase of 1.1%.

Nonetheless, its positive on-chain metric suggests that SHIB might be set for higher gains in the short term.

Further data provided by the source shows that leading cryptocurrency exchange Gate has dominated the SHIB derivatives market with 7.37 trillion SHIB registered by its users.

This impressive performance was followed by Bitget, which accounts for 2.44 trillion SHIB out of the total amount of SHIB’s unsettled contracts.

The World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) has called on financial regulators to tighten oversight of tokenized stocks, warning that the products could expose investors to hidden risks and undermine trust in traditional markets.

Reuters reported on Aug. 25 that WFE warned that tokenized equities replicate the appearance of stocks without conferring the same rights or protections that shareholders typically receive.

Unlike conventional shares, tokenized versions allow investors to gain synthetic exposure to a company’s performance without holding legal ownership.

The WFE said this marketing approach risks confusing retail investors, who may assume they hold voting or dividend rights when they do not. If these products fail, the group cautioned, the reputational fallout could extend to listed companies, damaging broader market integrity.

The WFE urged regulators to expand securities laws to cover tokenized assets to prevent such outcomes. It recommended clarifying rules around ownership and custody while restricting the promotion of these instruments as “stock equivalents.”

The industry body outlined its concerns about the fast-growing sector in a letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO).

Tokenized stock rises

The WFE’s intervention comes when tokenized equities are gaining momentum across both crypto-native and mainstream platforms.

Over the past months, prominent crypto trading platforms like Robinhood, Kraken, and Gemini have rolled out tokenized versions of U.S.-traded stocks, offering retail users new ways to gain exposure outside traditional brokerage channels.

That rapid surge in adoption has attracted significant bullish forecasts, with Binance Research estimating that the sector could reach a $1.3 trillion market capitalization if just 1% of global equities moved onto blockchains.

Despite this bullish forecast, tokenized stocks remain a fraction of that potential. Data from RWA.xyz shows the sector holding about $360 million in market capitalization, making it one of the smaller segments of real-world asset tokenization.

Nonetheless, its proponents point to the rising demand from retail and institutional investors as evidence that the market could scale quickly once regulatory clarity arrives.

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Aave reached multiple all-time highs this week, fueled by the heated crypto market.

The money market protocol reached $3 trillion in cumulative deposits on Aug. 15, while surpassing $29 billion in active loans on August 13, according to Token Terminal data.

Additionally, Aave’s total value locked (TVL) climbed to a record high above $40 billion on Aug. 14, based on DefiLlama data. 

The achievements come amid DeFi lending emerging as the second-largest category with $75.3 billion in combined TVL.

Lending sector shows strong growth

DeFi lending protocols collectively manage $75.3 billion in total value locked across 540 protocols, making it the second-largest DeFi category behind liquid staking’s nearly $81 billion. 

The lending sector has posted a strong recent performance with 18.7% growth over the past month, outpacing most other DeFi categories. Furthermore, active loans reached roughly $43 billion on August 13, a new record for the sector.

Within this landscape, Aave commands a dominant position with approximately 66.7% market share of the DeFi lending market. Aave’s nearest competitor, Morpho, holds just $6.3 billion in deposits. As a result, Aave is nearly six times larger. 

The protocol’s TVL has grown 25.7% over the past 30 days, with active loans increasing by nearly $8 billion (38%) in the same period. This growth trajectory positions Aave among the top 41 US-chartered commercial banks by deposit volume, ahead of established institutions like Barclays.

Token performance and growth outlook

The AAVE token has surged 138% from its 2025 bottom on April 8. Aave founder Stani Kulechov projects the platform could reach $100 billion in net deposits before year-end, which would place it among the world’s 35 largest banks on par with Deutsche Bank.

The protocol’s expansion has been driven by institutional adoption and strategic partnerships. 

Nasdaq-listed BTCS uses Aave to generate yield on Ethereum holdings, while $6.4 billion of Ethena’s USDe stablecoin and related assets are deposited on the platform.

Aave’s multiple records this week demonstrate the protocol’s evolution into a potential institutional-grade financial infrastructure, capturing market share as traditional finance institutions increasingly integrate decentralized lending services.

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