Dogecoin begins the new trading week in an unusually precarious spot on its higher‑time‑frame chart: technically triumphant, yet visibly stretched. A cluster of weekly studies shared by pseudonymous market technician Cantonese Cat shows the meme‑coin pressing into resistance after an abrupt two‑week rally that added roughly 80 percent from the June lows. The analyst cautions that the move, though structurally bullish, may require a brief pullback to consolidate before further gains.

Dogecoin Overextended?

On the logarithmic Fibonacci retracement drawn across the 2024–25 range, last week’s candle managed to close marginally above the 0.618 level at $0.262 — a zone that has capped every breakout attempt since January. The close was technically significant: in classical market geometry, recapturing the 61.8 percent retrace often signals a transition from recovery to trend expansion.

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“It broke above the 0.618 log fib which can use a bullish back‑test,” Cantonese Cat observed, adding that a return to that same area “would flush back down to back‑test” the double‑bottom that formed around $0.15 earlier in the quarter.

The Bollinger‑Band panel underscores the risk of near‑term mean‑reversion. Dogecoin’s weekly close at $0.267 is the first in eleven months to settle outside the upper band, which currently sits near $0.262. Such closes are rare on a high‑time‑frame chart and are typically followed by at least one candle that re‑enters the bands.

“It’s above the Bollinger band,” the analyst notes. Historically, Dogecoin has struggled to maintain altitude when that spread becomes extreme, often retreating to the middle band — now near $0.19 — or, in stronger cycles, to the upper band itself on the subsequent week.

The Ichimoku snapshot tells a similar story of progress meeting inertia. Price has vaulted both the conversion line (Tenkan‑sen) and the baseline (Kijun‑sen), confirming bullish momentum on those metrics, but remains pinned beneath the underside of the weekly cloud. The Senkō Span B that defines that lower cloud boundary sits around $0.28–$0.29, almost exactly where Dogecoin stalled on the final trading day of last week.

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Cantonese Cat labels that area “Ichimoku cloud resistance” and warns that until a decisive close pierces the cloud, the level should be treated as supply. A brief dip, therefore, would allow the Kijun‑sen (roughly $0.23) and the 0.618 Fibonacci level to compress into a confluence that could provide the next higher low.

Supporting that idea is the supply‑demand band highlighted in grey on the fourth chart. It spans approximately $0.24 to $0.25 and corresponds to the base of February’s breakdown range. In chart‑pattern terms, the area acts as the neckline of the double‑bottom Cantonese Cat references.

A retracement into that former resistance‑turned‑support could satisfy both the Fibonacci back‑test requirement and the Bollinger re‑entry, while leaving the broader reversal structure intact. The analyst sketches exactly that path on the chart: a pullback into the grey zone, followed by a renewed advance toward the mid‑$0.30s.

Importantly, none of these observations undermine the longer‑term shift in market structure. The double‑bottom around $0.15 resolved higher in July with a weekly candle that engulfed eleven weeks of prior supply, signalling a change of control from sellers to buyers. The most recent candles, though smaller, have held every gain from that breakout. As the analyst summarizes: “Overall, these are very bullish developments, even if it dips down early this week to reset some technicals.”

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.277.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the market embraced institutional inflows in 2025 without abandoning its historical preference for flexible custody and low-friction trading platforms.

At the center of this reallocation is the exchange reserve ratio, a measure comparing the amount of BTC held on different types of exchanges. As of June 11, the reserve ratio between KYC and non-KYC exchanges had fallen to 1.33, down from 1.46 at the end of December.

That 9.1% drawdown reflects a broader trend of liquidity quietly migrating out of regulated venues, despite the rollout of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January and the subsequent inflows they generated.

The same pattern appears when comparing reserves on US-domiciled exchanges to offshore venues. For the first time in years, offshore exchanges hold more BTC than their US counterparts, with the US/offshore reserve ratio flipping negative on Jan. 1 and falling to -0.22 by mid-June.

The pace of this decline has remained steady throughout Bitcoin’s rally in the first quarter and the subsequent consolidation in the second quarter, with little evidence that the landmark approval of ETFs last year or the repeal of SAB 121 meaningfully reversed the trend.

Volume patterns reinforce this shift. Daily spot trading volume on KYC-compliant platforms fell by 18.6% between January and June, dropping from an average of $424,700 worth of BTC per day to $345,800. Non-KYC exchanges also experienced a slowdown, with average volumes down 15.3%, but their share of total spot activity rose from 12.8% to 14.5%. This subtle increase suggests a rising tolerance (or preference) for trading outside of traditional regulatory frameworks.

The divergence between price and reserve activity raises key structural questions. Bitcoin’s price appreciation has not coincided with a renewed inflow of reserves to US or KYC venues. In fact, reserve levels and price data are only weakly correlated: the KYC/Non-KYC ratio shows a daily correlation of just +0.05 with Bitcoin’s close price, while the US/Offshore ratio clocks in at +0.03. This lack of correlation implies that these shifts are not simply reactions to market gains but part of a deeper realignment in market behavior.

Offshore exchanges, particularly those based in jurisdictions with laxer identity verification requirements, continue to appeal to both high-frequency market makers and retail users seeking more anonymity or more lenient trading terms. The lower fees and broader token access typical of these platforms also play a role, especially as arbitrage and delta-neutral strategies return on the back of an expanding options market.

While ETF flows have been net positive year-to-date, they have not been accompanied by a sustained accumulation of reserves on US exchanges. Instead, reserves have remained flat or declined, showing that much of the ETF-related buying is routed directly through authorized participants who tap into existing liquidity. It also shows that this buying failed to create meaningful demand for spot acquisition on exchanges.

This points to a paradox: the very infrastructure built to legitimize and integrate Bitcoin into US financial markets may be accelerating the drain of custody and trading activity away from US platforms. ETFs offer easy exposure to price but decouple that exposure from the underlying coin movement that once helped anchor that liquidity in the US.

The resilience of non-KYC and offshore activity could create significant changes in the market. A rising share of trading volume outside traditional compliance rails may complicate enforcement actions, distort volume-based metrics, and challenge assumptions about the centrality of US platforms in driving price discovery.

However, the data shows that Bitcoin’s adoption as a financial instrument hasn’t tampered too much with its decentralized nature. Even amid surging institutional interest and record-breaking ETF flows, custody and liquidity preferences are drifting toward the path of least resistance. The US might remain a key entry point for fiat capital, but Bitcoin’s trading reach continues to stretch outward, beyond borders, and increasingly beyond the reach of regulators.

The post Bitcoin liquidity moves to non-KYC exchanges as US reserves thin appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The US government relies on a network of computers to generate payments out of thin air, including some transactions that remain entirely undocumented, according to Elon Musk.

In a new interview on Senator Ted Cruz’s Verdict podcast, Musk says the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has now discovered about 14 “magic money” computers.

Musk tells Cruz that these computers are responsible for sending trillions of dollars in payments.

“I call a magic money computer any computer that can make money out of thin air. It just issues payments… They just send money out of nothing.”

Musk says about 5-10% of the payments executed by these computers are not reported to Senators in Congress.

“You may think that the government computers all talk to each other. They synchronize. They add up what funds are going somewhere and it’s coherent, and that the numbers that you’re presented as a Senator are actually the real numbers. One would think. They’re not.”

Musk says DOGE has discovered these computers at the Treasury Department, State Department, Health and Human Services Department and the Defense Department.

According to Musk, the government’s systems make it tough to reconcile payments and tackle waste and fraud.

“If you want to know what what the situation is with the accounting and you’re trying to reconcile accounting and get rid of waste and fraud, you must be able to analyze the computer databases. Otherwise you can’t figure it out.

Because what you’re doing is asking a human – who will then ask another human – and finally usually ask some contractor – who will ask another contractor – to do a query on the computer.

So it’s many layers deep. The only way to reconcile the databases and get rid of waste and fraud is to to actually look at the computers and see what’s going on.

When I sort of cryptically refer to reprogramming The Matrix, you have to understand what’s going at the computers. You have to reconcile the computer databases in order to identify the waste and fraud.”

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