There039s – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sun, 14 Sep 2025 23:33:17 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.11 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 There039s – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Bitcoin Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There's a Catch https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-bulls-bet-on-fed-rate-cuts-to-drive-bond-yields-lower-but-theres-a-catch/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-bulls-bet-on-fed-rate-cuts-to-drive-bond-yields-lower-but-theres-a-catch/#respond Sun, 14 Sep 2025 23:33:16 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-bulls-bet-on-fed-rate-cuts-to-drive-bond-yields-lower-but-theres-a-catch/

On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.

While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.

Debt supply

The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.

The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).

“The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,” analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.

Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.

The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.

Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that “investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.”

These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.

Stubborn inflation

Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.

When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.

Easing priced in?

Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.

According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.

“We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,” Garvey said in a note to clients last week.

Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.

Lesson from 2024

The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.

The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.

According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.

As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.

What it means for BTC?

While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.

However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.

Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K

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Why Is Wall Street So Bearish on Plug Power? There's 1 Key Reason. https://earlybirdsinvest.com/why-is-wall-street-so-bearish-on-plug-power-theres-1-key-reason/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/why-is-wall-street-so-bearish-on-plug-power-theres-1-key-reason/#respond Wed, 20 Aug 2025 12:07:12 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/why-is-wall-street-so-bearish-on-plug-power-theres-1-key-reason/ Demand alone can’t fuel the industry.

Plug Power (PLUG -4.52%) has captivated growth investors for decades. The company specializes in producing hydrogen fuel systems, a segment of the market that could see massive growth rates throughout the rest of this century. There should be plenty of near-term growth, too. According to research published in 2024 by Bloomberg, clean hydrogen fuel demand is expected to “skyrocket 30-fold to 16.4 million metric tons per year by 2030.”

But investors aren’t all on board: Some Wall Street analysts remain bearish on the stock. Morgan Stanley analysts, for example, rate PLUG stock as a sell with a price target of just $0.75 — roughly 50% below the current share price.

This is the No. 1 problem with Plug Power stock today

While industry forecasts call for major hydrogen fuel demand growth, the technology is still largely uncompetitive versus traditional fossil fuels, and even versus renewable sources like wind and solar. As Bloomberg’s research highlights, demand growth forecasts will be very sensitive to changes in government regulations and subsidies — two components that are critical in making hydrogen fuel economically viable.

A lack of economic viability has consistently reduced demand for Plug Power’s products over the decades. The company itself has often been reliant on large government subsidies to remain financially afloat. This is exactly what Wall Street analysts are worried about. Morgan Stanley’s analysts have been sounding the alarm since 2023. “We see significant risk around PLUG’s business model,” they wrote then. “On paper, PLUG’s strategy makes sense to us, but we have reduced confidence in the company’s ability to execute on that strategy barring a potential dilutive capital raise.”

Artist's rendering of a glowing atom.

Image source: Getty Images.

Morgan Stanley’s concerns were prescient. Since that time, Plug Power has nearly doubled its share count, massively diluting shareholders in an attempt to stay financially viable. Today, the company continues to post negative net incomes quarter after quarter.

The future is bright for hydrogen fuel. But Plug Power’s lack of profitability continues to concern analysts, and is something investors have to watch.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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3 Reasons to Buy Amazon Stock Like There's No Tomorrow https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-reasons-to-buy-amazon-stock-like-theres-no-tomorrow/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-reasons-to-buy-amazon-stock-like-theres-no-tomorrow/#respond Sat, 16 Aug 2025 12:09:44 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-reasons-to-buy-amazon-stock-like-theres-no-tomorrow/ Amazon stock may be slightly overlooked by some investors right now, but the company’s leading roles in key markets make it likely to be a winner for years to come.

Amazon (AMZN -0.00%) has been a tremendous stock for long-term investors, including its 55% gains over the past three years. But that’s only slightly outpaced the S&P 500 over that time, leaving some investors wondering if Amazon stock has permanently lost its luster.

I think that sentiment fails to account for Amazon’s strong position in some very big markets and how hard it will be for competitors to catch up. To that end, here are three reasons why it’s still a smart move to buy Amazon stock right now.

A delivery driver in a vehicle.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. It has the third-largest digital ad business in the U.S.

Amazon is an advertising powerhouse as the No. 3 ad platform, after Alphabet and Meta Platforms. While those are certainly big shoes to fill, Amazon has made impressive gains over the past several years. Consider that Amazon had less than 11% of the U.S. digital market in 2021 and will have an estimated 17% by next year. That’s beginning to nip at the heels of Meta’s 21% market share.

Advertising is also Amazon’s fastest-growing business, with ad sales rising 23% in the second quarter to $15.7 billion. Unlike its rivals, Amazon’s ad sales have a built-in advantage for the company, as advertisers spend money to sell goods on Amazon’s platform, allowing the company to benefit from both the ad sales and the online purchases. And with the U.S. digital advertising market expected to grow into an estimated $220 billion market by 2030, there’s still room for Amazon to benefit.

2. It’s tapping into a $2 trillion AI opportunity

Some people have been disappointed with Amazon’s cloud revenue growth lately, but I think they miss the fact that Amazon has the largest cloud computing market share, with 30% compared to Microsoft‘s 21% and Google’s 12%.

Microsoft is certainly making lots of ground and shouldn’t be ignored. However, the AI cloud computing market will be worth an estimated $2 trillion by 2030, so there’s plenty of room for both companies to benefit.

What’s more, Amazon is still investing in its cloud computing business and will increase its capital expenditure spending to $118 billion this year, mostly to expand its AI infrastructure.

3. It still dominates in e-commerce

Amazon has about 38% of the U.S. e-commerce market share. It’s such a huge lead that some of the largest retailers barely register. Walmart‘s platform takes just 6% of the market, and Target has spent years improving its online offerings and still has only 2% of the U.S. e-commerce market.

Amazon not only has the first-mover advantage in this space but has also built an impressive bulwark against its competitors, boasting more than 200 million Prime members who choose to give Amazon money for access to faster shipping and perks like video streaming. Prime has been massively successful for the company, and the latest proof of that comes from its recent Prime Day event, which offered deals to new and existing Prime members and generated an estimated $24 billion in sales in just four days.

Keep this in mind when buying from Amazon

Amazon is the leading cloud computing company, its advertising business continues to grow, and its e-commerce prowess is unmatched. With all these foundations in place, the company is well-positioned to benefit as these markets grow.

Amazon’s shares are also priced relatively well right now, with a price-to- earnings (P/E) ratio of about 34, compared to the S&P 500’s average of about 29 and internet software companies’ average of about 52. Given that the company spans so many lucrative markets and is relatively cheaper than some internet companies, the stock still looks like a relatively good deal right now.

Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Target, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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PEPE at Risk of Adding Zero, But There's a Catch https://earlybirdsinvest.com/pepe-at-risk-of-adding-zero-but-theres-a-catch/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/pepe-at-risk-of-adding-zero-but-theres-a-catch/#respond Wed, 06 Aug 2025 16:30:03 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/pepe-at-risk-of-adding-zero-but-theres-a-catch/

Pepe (PEPE), the frog-themed meme coin, has dropped by 8.23% in the last seven days as prices threaten to breach the $0.000010 support level again. The downward movement has brought the meme coin less than 50 cents away from slipping below this level and adding another zero to its price.

PEPE’s price slips toward critical support level

According to CoinMarketCap data, Pepe is currently exchanging at $0.00001036, which means further volatility could push it over the edge. In the last 24 hours, Pepe’s price outlook has not been impressive. The highest peak it has hit in the course of trading is pegged at $0.00001037.

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PEPE Daily Price Chart | Source: CoinMarketCap

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The poor price outlook has caused a drop in trading volume within the same time frame. Volume is in the red zone by a significant 21.47% at $502.69 million. The dip is likely due to a 43% decline in large holders’ dominance.

According to available data, the dominance of PEPE whales has not dropped to this level since December 2023. This implies that retail traders are left to drive price action.

Amid these low levels, a whale has bought nearly three trillion PEPE worth about $28.8 million within the last 48 hours. Whether this could spark institutional interest remains to be seen on the market. However, this forms a catch that can help shift the price outlook.

Can PEPE avoid adding another zero?

Notably, if other ecosystem whales engage in aggressive accumulation, it might trigger a reversal. 

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The price level of the meme coin is a good buying point for long-term investors looking to accumulate the asset. Although the meme coin is witnessing a bearish momentum currently, a massive buy could support a rebound move.

PEPE bulls need to step in and halt the sell-off before it slips and add another zero. A slip might prove more difficult to emerge from than defending the $0.000010 support level. Meanwhile, if the crypto market stabilizes, it might help PEPE stay afloat.

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Shiba Inu (SHIB): This Was Brutal, Ethereum (ETH) Fails at $3,700: But There's a Catch, Dogecoin (DOGE) Says Goodbye to $0.20 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/shiba-inu-shib-this-was-brutal-ethereum-eth-fails-at-3700-but-theres-a-catch-dogecoin-doge-says-goodbye-to-0-20/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/shiba-inu-shib-this-was-brutal-ethereum-eth-fails-at-3700-but-theres-a-catch-dogecoin-doge-says-goodbye-to-0-20/#respond Wed, 06 Aug 2025 03:24:48 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/shiba-inu-shib-this-was-brutal-ethereum-eth-fails-at-3700-but-theres-a-catch-dogecoin-doge-says-goodbye-to-0-20/
  • Ethereum falls
  • Dogecoin gets ready

The most recent price action for Shiba Inu has drastically declined. Following what appeared to be a textbook recovery, SHIB was brutally denied at the resistance level of $0.0000125 ,which was previously recognized as a critical short-term breakout point. The asset’s vulnerability in current market conditions was revealed by the rejection at this level, which also erased days of cautious gains. 

What could have been a bullish reversal on the daily chart was completely destroyed by the rejection, which occurred almost exactly at the 50 EMA. SHIB is currently trading at about $0.0000121, down almost 3% for the day, and the market momentum has all but vanished. SHIB had just broken above its local support at $0.0000118, attempted to retest important EMAs from below and even displayed indications of growing buying pressure — which makes the technical setup leading up to this breakdown particularly harmful. 

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SHIB/USDT Chart by TradingView

The failure was confirmed when the volume collapsed again, indicating that the pressure was insufficient to overcome the layered resistance. Range-bound consolidation between $0.0000114 and $0.0000122 is the most likely short-term result. The RSI has fallen to 45, suggesting that there is neither overbought pressure nor significant strength supporting buyers at the moment. 

The $0.0000105 zone, which was the starting point for the most recent significant move, might be the next stop if SHIB is unable to hold the $0.0000114 support line. Conversely SHIB needs a clear break above $0.0000126 —preferably with volume — in order to regain any upward credibility. 

Ethereum falls

Ethereum’s recent decline from the $3,700 mark is certainly unexpected, but the situation is not as dire as it might seem. Following a spectacular rally that saw ETH rise more than 35% in a few weeks, the asset encountered resistance just below the $3,700 mark. Today’s candle shows another decline down more than 2% with the price currently trading close to $3,640. The rejection formed a short-term descending trendline.

From a technical standpoint, this is certainly a correction. Luckily, there is not any actual bearish volume to support it. Throughout this retracement, volume has been continuously dropping, and the red candle that is forming today is a result of low participation. This is crucial because volume spikes — which are usually present during strong bearish reversals — are not occurring at this time. 

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Additionally, ETH is cooling off without entering oversold territory, indicating that the selling pressure is weak, as indicated by the RSI remaining above 57. This decline appears to be a healthy cooldown rather than a trend reversal due to the shallow volume profile. The price of ETH may rise rapidly if buyers intervene close to the 20 EMA, which is approximately $3,600, particularly if the overall state of the market stabilizes. 

The subsequent push could easily bring ETH back to retest $3,700, this time with momentum, if it is able to break the descending resistance line. The 50 and 100 EMAs are located at the $3,300 and $3,100 levels, respectively, and should the 20 EMA fail as support, attention will turn there.

Dogecoin gets ready

There is no doubt that a break below $0.20 is imminent based on the price action of Dogecoin. DOGE has been steadily declining since reaching a high of about $0.29 in mid-July. The 50 EMA and 200 EMA clustered together at about $0.213, the most recent rejection creating a confluence of resistance that DOGE was unable to overcome. 

The market’s reluctance to support DOGE at these higher levels is confirmed by today’s 3% decline. This is evident on the chart: declining volume, lower highs and a waning RSI momentum (now at 51) all suggest that DOGE is struggling. Not just technical noise, a decline below $0.20 would indicate the breakdown of a short-term support level and turn the psychological round number into resistance.

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The next support is at $0.19 (100 EMA), and a stronger demand zone will be near $0.175 if DOGE drops $0.20 decisively. A move into that area seems very likely given the bounce attempt’s lack of volume commitment.

Waiting for a confirmed base to form before reentering the market is preferable if DOGE loses $0.20 and closes below it on the daily chart. Before acting, traders should wait for confirmation from the RSI dropping into oversold territory with a bounce or reversal candle. This market structure lacks the hype that DOGE has demonstrated can cause it to blow up. Expecting a continuous bleed is the more realistic course of action until sentiment changes or volume spikes in support.

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Tesla Just Achieved a Big Milestone With Its Robotaxi Launch. But There's Another Potential Speed Bump Fast Approaching. https://earlybirdsinvest.com/tesla-just-achieved-a-big-milestone-with-its-robotaxi-launch-but-theres-another-potential-speed-bump-fast-approaching/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/tesla-just-achieved-a-big-milestone-with-its-robotaxi-launch-but-theres-another-potential-speed-bump-fast-approaching/#respond Tue, 24 Jun 2025 06:47:41 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/tesla-just-achieved-a-big-milestone-with-its-robotaxi-launch-but-theres-another-potential-speed-bump-fast-approaching/

Tesla (TSLA 8.19%) and its CEO Elon Musk recently achieved a big milestone — they launched the company’s first self-driving robotaxis for paying customers in Austin, Texas. It’s an initiative that Musk first discussed in 2016. While it looks more like a soft launch, it’s still a big step for Tesla, which plans to launch a fully autonomous robotaxi fleet. Many investors think that could be a massive new business for the company that will justify Tesla’s monster valuation.

Still, Tesla has a lot going on right now. Remember, the company’s core business is still electric vehicles (EVs), and that business is facing a critical event in just a few weeks’ time.

Q2 EV Deliveries to soon be announced

Tesla is expected to announce its second-quarter EV delivery figures in the first week of July. As many investors likely recall, first-quarter deliveries came in at roughly 337,000, its lowest quarterly number in over two years. Many investors have been concerned that Musk’s close ties to President Donald Trump and his period of leading Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have alienated a significant portion of Tesla’s potential customer base.

Person in self-driving car.

Image source: Getty Images.

While Musk has stepped down from his work with DOGE to refocus on his businesses, data thus far on Tesla’s sales in the second quarter has been less than encouraging. Monthly sales data from Europe showed that Tesla’s sales once again faltered in April in countries including the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal, Sweden, and France.

Other data suggests that its sales in China have struggled in the second quarter as well. Aside from politics and brand image, Tesla may also be struggling there as a result of increasing competition from competitors like BYD, which has grabbed a dominant market share in China. BYD’s EVs are cheaper and its newest tech can charge faster than Tesla’s. These factors, in my opinion, will pose a bigger problem for Tesla than its brand or political issues, which are likely to fade over time.

Wall Street analysts are modeling for second-quarter deliveries of roughly 400,000, which would be an improvement from the first quarter, but a 10% year-over-year decline. However, some analysts don’t expect investors to care much if Tesla misses estimates.

“The Tesla narrative has increasingly turned to AV/Robotaxi, with investors likely more focused on the planned June 22 Robotaxi launch and Tesla’s path to scaling AV than on 2Q deliveries/overall fundamentals,” wrote Barclays analyst Dan Levy in a recent research note. Levy is modeling for 375,000 Tesla EV deliveries in the second quarter.

Other analysts are more concerned.

In early June, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan posted a research note suggesting Tesla’s deliveries in the second quarter were down 21% year-over-year on a quarter-to-date basis. Langan has a sell rating on the stock and a price target that implies a downside of more than 60%.

It’s also worth noting that Tesla has become a battleground stock, with some analysts extremely negative and others like Wedbush’s Dan Ives very bullish.

Will anyone care if Tesla disappoints?

At this point, there have been many negative headlines about Tesla’s EV deliveries in the second quarter, but the stock is up close to 24% quarter to date as of June 20.

As Levy mentioned, most Tesla shareholders at this point appear to be focused on future initiatives like robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robots. If Tesla does underperform on EV deliveries, I think it could suggest that the core EV business has a real problem and is being undermined by more than just Musk’s politics, which would present a fundamental problem for the EV business.

The stock may not fall much, but then investors will be heavily dependent on the performance of the robotaxi fleet, and reliant upon the Optimus robot business to scale up quickly as well. With Tesla trading at 168 times forward earnings, that bet is only becoming riskier for investors.

Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends BYD Company and Barclays Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Warren Buffett Just Called Dollar-Cost Averaging "the Dumbest Thing in the World." But There's 1 Key Exception. https://earlybirdsinvest.com/warren-buffett-just-called-dollar-cost-averaging-the-dumbest-thing-in-the-world-but-theres-1-key-exception/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/warren-buffett-just-called-dollar-cost-averaging-the-dumbest-thing-in-the-world-but-theres-1-key-exception/#respond Fri, 30 May 2025 08:17:20 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/warren-buffett-just-called-dollar-cost-averaging-the-dumbest-thing-in-the-world-but-theres-1-key-exception/ Not every investor should copy what Warren Buffett does.

Many financial experts tout dollar-cost averaging as a smart way to invest your money in the stock market. Warren Buffett disagrees, at least in some cases.

Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy in which you take a set amount of cash and invest it in securities on a periodic basis. It’s often advised for investors sitting on a lump sum of cash who want to minimize their risk of paying too much for a stock.

There’s no investor sitting on more cash than Warren Buffett right now. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.59%) (BRK.B 0.53%) ended the first quarter with more than $348 billion in cash and Treasury bills. But Buffett has been fine stacking cash and waiting for an opportunity in the market. At Berkshire’s shareholder meeting this year, he even went so far as to say if he was forced to invest $40 billion or $50 billion per year from the cash pile and Berkshire’s operating cash flow, “that would be the dumbest thing in the world to invest in that manner.” He’s not going to dollar-cost-average into the market with Berkshire’s money.

But Buffett did carve out a key exception for some investors. And it might be one of the smartest things you can do with your money.

A close-up of Warren Buffett.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

What game are you playing?

When it comes to investing, there are a lot of different routes you can take. A far-from-exhaustive list includes:

  • Trading: Looking to take advantage of short-term price changes in a specific security.
  • Speculating (as venture capitalists do): Putting a lot of small bets on promising businesses, with expectations that only a handful will actually pay off while the rest go to zero.
  • Buy-and-hold investing: Buying stakes in companies with expectations for long-term appreciation.
  • Passive investing: For instance by buying index funds that aim to match the returns of a set benchmark.

There are many different tactics you can use to play each of those games, and each of them is winnable.

Buffett has played multiple games in his lifetime, but his most successful game by far has been buy-and-hold investing. Berkshire Hathaway’s average annual return for shareholders is nearly double that of the S&P 500 since Buffett took over in 1965.

One of the key tactics Buffett uses to succeed at buy-and-hold investing is remaining patient and ensuring he’s well-positioned to take advantage of opportunities when they inevitably arise. “We have made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested at all times,” he told the audience at this year’s shareholder meeting. Sitting on cash gives Buffett the flexibility to take advantage of the rare opportunities that offer extremely high upside.

He made incredible investments in the wake of the financial crisis (including Bank of America). He was able to put tens of billions of dollars into Apple stock when it traded at an unreasonably low valuation. More recently, he had a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to invest in Japanese trading houses. But similar opportunities aren’t popping up every month. As a result, Berkshire Hathaway has seen its cash reserves pile up to record values in recent quarters, as Buffett awaits another great opportunity.

That’s the tactic that’s served him well. And anyone emulating Buffett will likely do best by keeping some cash reserves in their portfolio most of the time. With valuations climbing to the levels they’re at today, combined with relatively high interest rates on cash savings, piling up some cash right now makes a lot of sense.

But if you’re playing a different game than Buffett — and many people are — he takes a totally different attitude to dollar-cost averaging.

The big exception

If you’re not trying to beat the average returns of the S&P 500 or some other benchmark index, the best thing you can do is invest in an index fund. But if you want to ensure your returns match the index, you must be fully invested.

“We don’t think it’s improper, actually, for people who are passive investors just to make a few simple investments and sit for their life in them,” Buffett told shareholders, suggesting that remaining fully invested in an index fund at all times is a good strategy for many.

Where dollar-cost averaging does make sense — and I think Buffett would agree — is when it applies to setting aside some cash from your earnings and systematically investing the same amount every month (or whatever period makes sense).

However, if you’re a passive investor already sitting on a lump sum of cash, Buffett would likely suggest you invest that in your index fund of choice immediately. Indeed, the expected value of a lump-sum investment is considerably higher than dollar-cost averaging over time. That’s because stocks, on average, increase in value.

Unfortunately, many investors fail to adhere to Buffett’s lone exception to dollar-cost averaging. They forget what game they’re playing. As a result, the average index-fund investor ends up underperforming by 0.8% per year, according to research from Morningstar.

If you want to be a successful passive investor, you have to use different tactics than Buffett, the successful buy-and-hold investor. In some cases, that means doing the opposite of what he does.

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Adam Levy has positions in Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Bank of America, and Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Think It's Too Late to Buy Netflix? Here's the Biggest Reason Why There's Still Time. https://earlybirdsinvest.com/think-its-too-late-to-buy-netflix-heres-the-biggest-reason-why-theres-still-time/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/think-its-too-late-to-buy-netflix-heres-the-biggest-reason-why-theres-still-time/#respond Sun, 27 Apr 2025 03:20:51 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/think-its-too-late-to-buy-netflix-heres-the-biggest-reason-why-theres-still-time/ This streaming video giant may have more room to run.

Shares of Netflix (NFLX 0.40%) soared to a record high after its first-quarter earnings report exceeded Wall Street expectations. For the period ending March 31, the streaming giant posted a 13% year-over-year revenue increase. Its earnings per share (EPS) reached an all-time high of $6.61, up 25% from the prior-year quarter.

With the stock price up 71% over the past year as of this writing, some investors might assume it’s too late to buy Netflix. However, this thinking risks overlooking the big picture, as the company’s outlook is bolstered by several fundamental tailwinds.

Here’s why there’s still time to buy shares of Netflix.

Several reasons to stay bullish on Netflix

By all accounts, Netflix is running at max volume.

Management cites ongoing growth in new memberships, with gradual subscription price increases worldwide supporting higher margins and earnings. It is also optimistic that an industry-leading slate of exclusive series and movies is keeping viewers engaged. Notably, Netflix has seen a favorable response to its push into live events, including boxing matches and weekly WWE pro wrestling.

A group of people cheer in a living room.

Image source: Getty Images.

Perhaps the biggest development has been Netflix’s success in scaling its advertising-supported tier, which is attracting a broader mix of subscribers while opening new revenue streams.

Netflix co-CEO Gregory Peters highlighted that the company is “just beginning” to leverage its proprietary adtech in the estimated $600 billion global advertising market. While still a relatively small part of the business relative to subscriptions, adtech is now an important growth driver.

The rally in Netflix stock can keep going

For 2025, Netflix is targeting revenue between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion, representing a solid 13% increase at the midpoint forecast compared to 2024. Its forecast for an operating margin of 29% would mark a company record and is well above the 26.7% result last year. This dynamic underscores a key development — Netflix is now more profitable than ever, and that could power the next stage of the stock price rally. Netflix stock remains a great option for investors to buy and hold in a diversified portfolio.

Dan Victor has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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3 Reasons to Buy Wingstop Stock Like There's No Tomorrow https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-reasons-to-buy-wingstop-stock-like-theres-no-tomorrow/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-reasons-to-buy-wingstop-stock-like-theres-no-tomorrow/#respond Tue, 08 Apr 2025 02:57:47 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-reasons-to-buy-wingstop-stock-like-theres-no-tomorrow/

The stock market correction hasn’t gone on very long, but there are more than a few growth stocks that are well off their highs.

Wingstop (WING -4.79%) is one of them. Shares of the fast-food wing slinger are now down 52% from their peak last fall, as investors have been spooked by weakening consumer sentiment, disappointing 2025 guidance, and missing top-line estimates in its fourth-quarter earnings report. A lofty valuation also accelerated the sell-off, as the stock was priced for perfection six months ago.

However, after the price reset, Wingstop looks set up for an attractive buying opportunity. Here are three reasons why.

Chicken tenders, fries, and soda from Wingstop,

Image source: Wingstop.

1. It has an impeccable track record of growth

In the restaurant industry, winners tend to keep winning, and Wingstop’s success is a testament to that. The company is easily the nation’s largest fast-food wing concept, and its model of opening in B-level real estate locations, keeping costs low for franchisees, and relying on digital and delivery channels has paid off.

Wingstop has delivered 20 straight years of same-store sales growth, a streak that includes the financial crisis and the pandemic and is virtually unmatched in the restaurant industry. The company has also reported double-digit comparable-sales growth in many of those quarters.

In fact, in the fourth quarter, it posted 10.1% domestic same-store sales growth and 19.9% same-store sales growth for the year, on top of 18.3% in 2023, giving it a two-year comp of more than 40%.

A restaurant chain that’s able to grow at a rate like that clearly has a product and brand that’s resonating with its customer base. Additionally, Wingstop has been able to grow same-store sales in double digits while aggressively opening new locations, showing that cannibalization has not been an issue.

2. 2025 guidance is likely conservative

Wingstop stock fell 13% on Feb. 20, and continued to slide from there as the company missed top-line estimates in its fourth-quarter earnings report and offered disappointing guidance for 2025.

Management said that it expected low-to-mid-single-digit same-store sales growth in 2025, a sharp slowdown from 19.9% in 2024 or 10.1% in the fourth quarter. On the earnings call, the company explained that that guidance was primarily due to lapping very strong growth in 2024, including 20% growth in the first quarter in 2024.

However, full-year guidance to start the year tends to be conservative for most companies, and Wingstop has a pattern of doing that as well. In fact, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the company guided for mid-single-digit comparable-sales growth, and clearly blew that away with 20% comperable-sales growth.

Management teams generally give targets they’re confident they can hit. That doesn’t mean that Wingstop will blow past its guidance again, but that forecast isn’t a reason in and of itself to doubt the company.

3. It still has a long runway of growth

Wingstop is rapidly expanding in both domestic and international markets, and the company’s franchise model allows it to open stores quickly in new markets and in small-footprint locations that other restaurant chains might avoid.

Wingstop opened 349 net new restaurants in 2024, bringing its grand total to 2,563 locations, and it expects to grow its base by another 14%-15% in 2025, showing that even if its same-store sales growth is modest, the company can still deliver growth through new stores.

The company only has a few hundred stores in international markets, and it can follow in the footsteps of successful fast-food chicken brands like KFC (owned by Yum! Brands) by expanding abroad.

Wingstop is currently targeting 7,000 locations globally, about triple what it has today, and the company could lift that target if same-store sales continue to be robust and there’s demand from franchisees.

A great buying opportunity

Wingstop’s valuation looks much more reasonable after the recent pullback, as it trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56, which seems reasonable for a company with its growth potential.

While market headwinds could persist in 2025, Wingstop could also soar again if it can beat its same-stores sales guidance for the year. Long term, the company looks well-positioned for market-beating growth, both as a business and a stock.

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4 Reasons to Buy Uber Technologies Stock Like There's No Tomorrow https://earlybirdsinvest.com/4-reasons-to-buy-uber-technologies-stock-like-theres-no-tomorrow/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/4-reasons-to-buy-uber-technologies-stock-like-theres-no-tomorrow/#respond Mon, 31 Mar 2025 08:33:20 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/4-reasons-to-buy-uber-technologies-stock-like-theres-no-tomorrow/

Uber Technologies (UBER -2.91%) has navigated the recent stock market volatility well, delivering a solid 23% year-to-date gain for shareholders, while the S&P 500 index is down about 3.5% in 2025 thus far.

The ride-sharing giant is capitalizing on strong demand across its platform, which has led to accelerating profitability. As the company targets new growth opportunities, a compelling case emerges that Uber’s outlook is stronger than ever.

Here are four reasons I believe Uber Technologies stock can make an excellent addition to your portfolio right now.

1. Uber is reporting strong platform demand

For more than a decade, Uber has redefined personal mobility, becoming a cultural shorthand for convenient, on-demand transportation. The company’s growth trajectory has been remarkable, with its monthly active platform consumers (MAPCs) now exceeding 170 million — more than double the 80 million it reported in 2018. In 2024, the company facilitated 11.3 billion trips worldwide, which generated $44 billion in net revenue, up 18% year over year.

It’s not just its ride-sharing service fueling this momentum. Uber has successfully introduced several new transportation options in recent years while leveraging its technology ecosystem into services like food delivery and freight solutions. Not only are more users utilizing an Uber service for the first time, but they’re also increasingly active, taking trips or placing delivery orders more frequently.

This ongoing diversification as Uber continues to enter new markets further strengthens the company’s fundamentals as a high-quality industry leader. Yet, Uber believes it is just getting started, noting that its consumer user base still represents less than 5% of the total addressable adult population in the major countries it serves.

A person gets into the back seat of a car.

Image source: Getty Images.

2. Uber is a cash-flow juggernaut

Perhaps even more impressive than Uber’s growth is its improved financial position, where earnings and free cash flow have crossed an inflection point. In 2024, earnings per share (EPS) of $4.56 soared compared to $0.87 in 2023, while the $6.9 billion in free cash flow was up 105%.

The expectation is for further profitable growth with an upside for operating margins. Uber’s management has projected optimism toward its outlook, through its $7 billion share repurchasing authorization announced last year. Uber’s ability to return cash to shareholders adds to its appeal as an investment.

3. Uber is positioned to lead with autonomous vehicles

Uber has faced questions about how it will address the rise of autonomous vehicles (AVs), which present both a risk to its driver-based model as well as a massive opportunity. Management acknowledges that mass-scale AV commercialization is years away, with cost, safety, and regulatory challenges ensuring human drivers remain essential to urban mobility for the foreseeable future.

Nevertheless, Uber’s technology and global infrastructure — covering customer support, payments, and fleet management — position it uniquely to support AV operators. Already partnering with leaders like Waymo (an Alphabet subsidiary) and China-based WeRide, Uber integrates autonomous rides into its network in select regions, leveraging these collaborations to tap into a projected $1 trillion market over the next decade.

4. Uber has a compelling valuation

Shares of Uber are trading at 23 times its consensus 2025 EPS estimate, a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio that I view as attractive for a consumer-focused tech titan delivering double-digit percentage growth. While that earnings multiple commands a significant premium over its smaller ride-share rival Lyft (which trades at a forward P/E of 12), Uber’s stronger brand recognition, larger scale, and more diversified, future-proof offerings justify its premium.

A better comparison might be with disruptors like DoorDash, Airbnb, and even Amazon, which lead their categories in the platform economy and trade at forward P/Es above 30. By this measure, Uber stock offers a good mix of growth and value.

UBER PE Ratio (Forward) Chart

Data by YCharts.

Final thoughts

I’m bullish on Uber and predict its shares will continue climbing. I fully expect the stock price to regain its October 2024 all-time high price of $87 by this time next year (it’s currently priced around $74). The company’s combination of strong growth and recurring profitability positions it well to reward shareholders over the long run. Investors confident in Uber’s potential have plenty of reasons to buy the stock for a diversified portfolio.

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Dan Victor has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Airbnb, Alphabet, Amazon, DoorDash, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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