Term – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sun, 14 Sep 2025 05:58:22 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Term – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Cut Could Spark Short-Term Jitters but Supercharge Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks Long Term https://earlybirdsinvest.com/feds-sept-17-rate-cut-could-spark-short-term-jitters-but-supercharge-bitcoin-gold-and-stocks-long-term/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/feds-sept-17-rate-cut-could-spark-short-term-jitters-but-supercharge-bitcoin-gold-and-stocks-long-term/#respond Sun, 14 Sep 2025 05:58:22 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/feds-sept-17-rate-cut-could-spark-short-term-jitters-but-supercharge-bitcoin-gold-and-stocks-long-term/

Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 monetary policy decision; markets expect a quarter-point rate cut that could trigger short-term volatility but potentially fuel longer-term gains across risk assets.

The economic backdrop highlights the Fed’s delicate balancing act.

According to the latest CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting the annual CPI rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, as shelter, food, and gasoline pushed costs higher. Core CPI also climbed 0.3%, extending its steady pace of recent months.

Producer prices told a similar story: per the latest PPI report released on Wednesday, the headline PPI index slipped 0.1% in August but remained 2.6% higher than a year earlier, while core PPI advanced 2.8%, the largest yearly increase since March. Together, the reports underscore stubborn inflationary pressure even as growth slows.

The labor market has softened further.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, with federal government and energy sector job losses offsetting modest gains in health care. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while labor force participation remained stuck at 62.3%.

Revisions showed June and July job growth was weaker than initially reported, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum. Average hourly earnings still rose 3.7% year over year, keeping wage pressures alive.

Bond markets have adjusted accordingly. Per data from MarketWatch, 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.56%, while the 10-year is at 4.07%, leaving the curve modestly inverted. Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.

If the Fed limits its move to just 25 bps, investors may react with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” response, since markets have already priced in relief.

Equities are testing record levels.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584 after rising 1.6% for the week, its best since early August. The index’s one-month chart shows a strong rebound from its late-August pullback, underscoring bullish sentiment heading into Fed week.

S&P 500 One-Month Chart From Google Finance

S&P 500 One-Month Chart From Google Finance

The Nasdaq Composite also notched five straight record highs, ending at 22,141, powered by gains in megacap tech stocks, while the Dow slipped below 46,000 but still booked a weekly advance.

Crypto and commodities have rallied alongside.

Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion.

Bitcoin One-Month Price Chart From CoinDesk Data

BTC-USD One-Month Price Chart From CoinDesk Data

Gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs, with its one-month chart showing a steady upward trajectory as investors price in lower real yields and seek inflation hedges.

One-Month Gold Price Chart From TradingView

One-Month Gold Price Chart From TradingView

Historical precedent supports the cautious optimism.

Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter — reported in an X thread posted Saturday — citing Carson Research, shows that in 20 of 20 prior cases since 1980 where the Fed cut rates within 2% of S&P 500 all-time highs, the index was higher one year later, averaging gains of nearly 14%.

The shorter term is less predictable: in 11 of those 22 instances, stocks fell in the month following the cut. Kobeissi argues this time could follow a similar pattern — initial turbulence followed by longer-term gains as rate relief amplifies the momentum behind assets like equities, bitcoin and gold.

The broader setup explains why traders are watching the Sept. 17 announcement closely.

Cutting rates while inflation edges higher and stocks hover at records risks denting credibility, yet staying on hold could spook markets that have already priced in easing. Either way, the Fed’s message on growth, inflation, and its policy outlook will likely shape the trajectory of markets for months to come.

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What is the safest way to store multiple crypto assets in the long term? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-is-the-safest-way-to-store-multiple-crypto-assets-in-the-long-term/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-is-the-safest-way-to-store-multiple-crypto-assets-in-the-long-term/#respond Wed, 27 Aug 2025 16:16:00 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-is-the-safest-way-to-store-multiple-crypto-assets-in-the-long-term/

I’ve been in BTC for a while, but recently started stacking other coins (ETH, LTC, USDT, etc.). Until now, I’ve kept most of it in exchange, but obviously it’s not a wise long-term move. I know about hardware wallets like ledger and Trezor, but I also look at software/multicurrency wallets. The main things I care about are:

  1. Security (2FA, encryption, no shaded background)
  2. Ability to process multiple coins in one place
  3. The reason I don’t get broken in the fee every time I move things is that you guys actually use the wallet setup?
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3 Brilliant Tech Stocks to Buy Now and Hold for the Long Term https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-brilliant-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hold-for-the-long-term/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-brilliant-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hold-for-the-long-term/#respond Sun, 24 Aug 2025 21:02:27 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-brilliant-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hold-for-the-long-term/ These tech companies aren’t chasing trends — they’re shaping them.

As a buy-and-hold investor, I closely follow my long-term investments through exchange-traded funds and retirement accounts. I’ve always followed a Warren Buffett-style of investing, in which I look for strong, profitable companies to hold over the long term.

However, I also recognize that tech stocks are way too important — and profitable — to miss out on. Tech stocks represent companies that are at the forefront of innovation and development, leading the world’s charge into the future. Without tech companies, we wouldn’t have a host of massively significant advances that we take for granted today — things like personal computers, online banking, 5G wireless service, the internet, smartphones, and GPS technology. Nor would we have the incredible types of tech that companies are still making rapid progress on today — such as cloud computing, the Internet of Things, generative AI, and autonomous vehicles.

Including strong, profitable tech stocks in your portfolio is one of the best ways to give yourself an opportunity to outperform the market. Consider that the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up nearly 18% in the last 12 months, handily outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.

Three tech stocks that I think would be great choices for any retail investor’s portfolio are Nvidia (NVDA 1.65%), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 2.58%), and Meta Platforms (META 2.04%).

A person sits at a computer looking at investment options.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Nvidia

Semiconductor maker Nvidia is the biggest company in the world by market capitalization, so it naturally gets the top position on this list, too. While a recent pullback has driven the market cap from $4.4 trillion down to $4.2 trillion, the tailwinds that have propelled Nvidia’s upward over the last few years are still present — and they won’t be going away any time soon.

Nvidia designs graphics processing units (GPUs) that are used by data centers to provide the computing power required by a host of advanced computing tasks, such as training and running large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence (AI) systems. Nvidia’s GPUs are designed to be deployed in clusters of hundreds or thousands, boosting the parallel processing power they can apply to workloads. In addition, Nvidia’s CUDA platform provides libraries and tools for developers who are working on software that will be powered by its GPUs. It’s a popular platform with developers, and it’s only compatible with Nvidia’s chips. That added competitive advantage is one reason why I’m confident that it will continue to control the lion’s share of the GPU market for years to come.

Nvidia will release its results for its fiscal 2026 second quarter on Aug. 27, and I think it’s going to be another sterling report. I’ll also be looking carefully at management’s guidance, as the company is expected to resume selling its H20 AI chips to customers in China after being blocked from exporting them to that country earlier this year.

2. Taiwan Semiconductor

As the company that fabricates the advanced chips designed by Nvidia (as well as an array of other chip companies), Taiwan Semiconductor benefits from many of the same tailwinds as the GPU leader. But there are some differences between their businesses that make TSMC stock even more appealing.

As the world’s leading third-party chip foundry, Taiwan Semi manufactured nearly 12,000 products for 522 customers in 2024, employing 288 separate process technologies. It’s involved in about 85% of all semiconductor start-up product prototypes. In short, this is an ideal stock to own if you believe that the semiconductor business broadly will continue to grow, but you want to hedge some of your exposure away from Nvidia.

Taiwan Semi is also moving to limit its exposure to the trade war between Washington and Beijing, and to expand its manufacturing footprint further beyond the island of Taiwan, which China has designs on. The company is in the midst of spending $165 billion to expand its new manufacturing and R&D facility in Arizona and bring some of its most advanced fabrication processes to the U.S.

3. Meta Platforms

Meta Platforms, which operates Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger, is the unquestioned king of the social media companies. On average, 3.48 billion people use its platforms every day — and that number is increasing. Its daily active user count was up by 6% in June from a year earlier.

The company leverages that massive audience — and the mountain of information it collects about them — into an impressive revenue stream. Ad impressions were up 11% in the second quarter from the previous year. Overall, Meta reported $47.5 billion in revenue in the second quarter, up 22% year over year.

Meta’s own artificial intelligence platform, Meta AI, has been driving a lot of its recent success. Meta AI’s chatbot can generate content, answer questions, and create images. The company also provides AI-powered tools to advertisers to help them reach the customers they want, making their ads on its social media platforms more effective.

Tech stocks to buy and hold

Companies in the tech sector must constantly innovate in their efforts to stay relevant, and their stocks can sometimes be volatile. But Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Meta Platforms aren’t merely chasing trends — they’re shaping them. I expect that these companies will remain at the forefront of their industries as we move into the second half of the decade, and I view them as good bets to continue outperforming the market. That’s why I like them for any buy-and-hold portfolio.

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Pundit Predicts ‘Near Term’ Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices, There’s Still Room To Run https://earlybirdsinvest.com/pundit-predicts-near-term-bitcoin-and-ethereum-prices-theres-still-room-to-run/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/pundit-predicts-near-term-bitcoin-and-ethereum-prices-theres-still-room-to-run/#respond Tue, 12 Aug 2025 07:30:07 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/pundit-predicts-near-term-bitcoin-and-ethereum-prices-theres-still-room-to-run/

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices began to rally over the weekend, and interestingly, ETH was able to beat the $4,000 level for the first time in eight months. Bitcoin also recovered from its crash below $113,000 the previous week, taking the rest of the crypto market with it. Naturally, the reversal to bullish sentiment has brought investors out of the woodwork, with predictions now circling for where both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are headed.

Bitcoin To $150,000 And Ethereum To $8,000

Ex-Wall Street trader Vivek Raman has shared a prediction that has reignited hope once again in crypto investors. This comes after a notable weekend rally and the possibility of Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching brand-new all-time highs soon. Despite this already impressive rally, Raman does not believe that the move is over, sharing a near-term prediction for both cryptocurrencies.

Related Reading

In the post, the pundit uses the ETHBTC chart, which has been on fire lately, to predict where both digital assets are headed next. Raman was responding to another crypto analyst, Pentoshi, who believes the ETHBTC chart was headed to 0.055 after moving above 0.036.

Breaking this down, Raman explains that reaching this level would mean that the Ethereum price would be at $8,250 per coin, pushing it to a $1 trillion market cap. Amid this, he believes that the Bitcoin price could hit as high as $150,000 in the near term, making the likelihood of ETH touching $8,000 higher.

The push for Ethereum to hit $8,000 comes amid ETH treasury companies gaining ground recently. Raman suggests that investors could rotate from Bitcoin treasury companies into ETH, triggering a Wall Street run on Ethereum.

Looking at the longer timeframe, Raman forecasts that the Bitcoin price could hit as high as $250,000. At the same time, the Ethereum price is expected to hit $25,000, which would put the ETH market cap at a whopping $3 trillion market cap while Bitcoin moves in on a $10 trillion market cap.

BTC And ETH Getting Big Predictions

Raman is not the only crypto pundit who has shared major predictions for the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices recently. According to a report from Bitcoinist, another analyst Fapital has shared where they expect both Bitcoin and Ethereum to be by 2032.

Related Reading

Fapital puts the Bitcoin price as high as $889,969, with Ethereum as high as $28,000 during this time. While both predictions span between shorter and longer timeframes, there is a similarity in the exception that the Ethereum price will eventually cross the $20,000 target.

Ethereum price chart from TradingView.com (Bitcoin)
ETH moves above $4,300 | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

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This week’s Solana price analysis: Can Sol hit $200 in the short term? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/this-weeks-solana-price-analysis-can-sol-hit-200-in-the-short-term/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/this-weeks-solana-price-analysis-can-sol-hit-200-in-the-short-term/#respond Thu, 10 Jul 2025 04:25:57 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/this-weeks-solana-price-analysis-can-sol-hit-200-in-the-short-term/

The main question surrounding Solana’s price analysis this week is whether it can reach $200 in the short term. Sol currently trades for around $152.50, making it 1.5% less modest over the last 24 hours.

Sol is currently facing heavy resistance at $164 and needs to push this level to entertain the idea of ​​a driving heading towards $200 in July.

Pump token firing, Solana ETF, and bullish chart patterns pointing to breakouts in Solana price analysis this week

(TradingView))

4 Hour Close Key for Solana Price Analysis This Week: Over $153, All Bets Off

Despite the resistance of Sol Price, it shows a critical breakout from the symmetrical triangle. However, to maintain the uptrend, you will need to initially exceed $153 in the 4-hour time frame.

From there, a $164 resistance could be in effect, which could prove an important barrier. Still, Solana was able to follow suit as Bitcoin hovered just below the highest level ever and was ready for a breakout at any time.

SOL’s current trendline has been well-respected since the beginning of July, resulting in a tight compression that appears to be poised to lead to an explosive breakout.

In a higher time frame, the one-day chart shows the patterning of cups and handles. This blends well with the low-box outlook, indicating a move upside the next day.

Solana’s price analysis relies on travelling from Bitcoin this week. This continues to just below $109,000 and appears to be ready to go above $110,000. A movement of this magnitude from major digital assets could give Altcoins such as Sol, such as fuel needed to gain momentum.

Discover: 9+ Best High Risk, High Reward Crypto Buy in July 2025

Catalysts that Possible to Sol Parabolic: Incoming Spot ETFs Do the Trick

Solana appears to be his favorite as the next Altcoin to receive full SEC approval for Spot ETF. Rex-Soprey first launched its Solana Staking ETF earlier this month, and has been a huge success so far, attracting over $41 million inflows during its first four days of trading.

The capital of this substantial amount of institutions flowing through only one ETF product to SOL highlights the substantial desire for spotsol investment from the provision of regulated institutions.

Currently, SECs such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise and 21 shares have over 10 SOPS SOL ETF applications in SEC.

These are favorites that are given full approval before other Altcoins, and forecast market platform Polymarket has a 99% chance of US-based Solana ETF being approved in 2025.

On the topic of ETFs, US President Trump has officially filed the “Crypto Blue Chip” ETF via his true social platform. SOL is listed as having an 8% allocation within a basket of assets including BTC, ETH, XRP and CRO.

Discovery: Next 1000x Ciphers: 10+ Ciphers tokens that could hit 1000X in 2025

Pump.Fun token release next week is set to bring liquidity and attention back to Solana

Another underrated event that can provide fuel to potential sor runs within the Solana ecosystem is the $Pump Token public token sale at Pump.Fun.

Token sales begin on July 12th, with the Pump.Fun team expected to raise $600 million through public offerings. Currently, it has been reported that European investors will be banned from participating in the planned pump token sales, which will last for 72 hours.

Next week we may mark a pump token generation event. At that point, you will be able to trade not only with Solana Dexs such as Pump.swap, Raydium, and Meteora, but also with the largest central exchange and Solana Dexs.

The pump token is expected to be the biggest and most exaggerated launch of the year, and could likely bring unprecedented amounts of fluidity and volume to the Solana ecosystem.

Solana’s on-chain transactions are mostly traded in Solpair, so hundreds of millions of dollars of Solana will exchange hands when the pump is running.

Discovery: Next 1000x Ciphers: 10+ Ciphers tokens that could hit 1000X in 2025

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Patterns Break as Both Short and Long Term Holder Cohorts Accumulate Bitcoin https://earlybirdsinvest.com/patterns-break-as-both-short-and-long-term-holder-cohorts-accumulate-bitcoin/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/patterns-break-as-both-short-and-long-term-holder-cohorts-accumulate-bitcoin/#respond Wed, 09 Jul 2025 13:51:10 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/patterns-break-as-both-short-and-long-term-holder-cohorts-accumulate-bitcoin/

As bitcoin

continues a now multi-week consolidation just below its all-time high of $112,000, an interesting accumulation phenomenon is occurring.

Both short-term and long-term holders have been increasing their stacks as distinct cohorts, which is unusual because these groups typically act in opposite directions, according to Glassnode data.

jwp-player-placeholder

The chart below from Glassnode illustrates the 155-day threshold used to classify coins as belonging to Long-Term Holders (LTH) or Short-Term Holders (STH).

Since June 22, the LTH supply has increased by 13,000 BTC, returning to an all-time high of 14,713,345 BTC. Meanwhile, over the same period, STHs have grown their BTC supply by more than 60,000 BTC and now hold over 2.3 million BTC.

According to Glassnode data, LTH and STH cohorts usually diverge because LTHs often sell into bull market strength, while STHs tend to buy amid market greed and euphoria.

This alignment suggests that both groups of market participants are expecting higher prices. If both cohorts continue increasing their supply, there is a strong possibility that all-time highs will be surpassed.

Long/Short Term Holder Threshold (Glassnode)

Long/Short Term Holder Threshold (Glassnode)

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3 Brilliant Growth Stocks to Buy Now and Hold for the Long Term https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-brilliant-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hold-for-the-long-term/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-brilliant-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hold-for-the-long-term/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 19:46:56 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/3-brilliant-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hold-for-the-long-term/

Investors are often bombarded by floods of information about macroeconomic indicators and political events. Such news and the short-term impacts it can have on markets can distract them from what’s more important from an investing perspective — buying strong growth stocks and holding them for the long term. The right investments can provide you with steady capital appreciation, allowing your portfolio to grow over time and positioning you for a comfortable retirement.

If you’re looking for companies to add to your portfolio, ideally, you’ll want to pick ones that have a robust track record of growth, a strong business model, and pending catalysts that could take the business to the next level. Here are three such stocks that should continue to exhibit strong growth in the years ahead.

Gamer using headphones in front of computer screen.

Image source: Getty Images.

Dycom Industries

Dycom Industries (DY -0.04%) provides a range of services, such as program management and planning, to companies in the telecommunications and utilities industries. It has been growing its revenue and net income steadily over time, and after a rough patch during its fiscal 2022, returned to being free-cash-flow positive in its fiscal 2023.

Metric Fiscal 2023 Fiscal 2024 Fiscal 2025
Revenue $3.81 billion $4.18 billion $4.70 billion
Net income $142 million $219 million $233 million
Free cash flow ($36 million) $40 million $99 million

Data source: Dycom Industries. The company’s fiscal years end in January of that calendar year.

The company continued to demonstrate steady growth for the first quarter of its fiscal 2026. For the period, which ended April 26, revenue rose 10.2% year over year to $1.26 billion, but net profit dipped by 2.4% because of higher expenses. However, the company reported a record order backlog of $8.1 billion, 28% higher than in the prior-year period. Based on its fiscal Q1 results, management updated its fiscal 2026 outlook, increasing its guidance range for contracted revenue to between $5.29 billion and $5.425 billion. That would equate to growth of between 12.5% to 15.4%, compared to the previous forecast for growth of between 10% and 13%.

Dycom management is seeing several positive trends that should boost its sales. The telecommunications industry is increasingly investing more capital to deploy and operate high-capacity connections and digital infrastructure. There is also increasing demand for fiber infrastructure to support new AI data centers. And the modernization of wireless networks to adapt them to handle higher digital demand is also in progress.

The company also carries out periodic acquisitions to broaden its customer base and geographic coverage. In 2023, it purchased Bigham Cable Construction to expand its offerings into rural broadband deployments. Last year, Dycom acquired Black & Veatch’s public carrier wireless telecommunications infrastructure business, which is expected to contribute $250 million to $275 million in contracted revenues to the top line in the current fiscal year.

Trane Technologies

Trane Technologies (TT -0.15%) sells climate solution products for homes, commercial buildings, and transportation systems under its Trane and Thermo King brands. The heating and cooling specialist’s revenues and net income have been growing steadily, and its free cash flow has more than doubled over the past couple of years.

Metric 2022 2023 2024
Revenue $16.0 billion $17.7 billion $19.8 billion
Operating income $2.42 billion $2.89 billion $3.50 billion
Net income $1.76 billion $2.02 billion $2.57 billion
Free cash flow $1.21 billion $2.09 billion $2.78 billion

Data source: Trane Technologies. 

Trane continued its strong performance in Q1 2025, when revenue rose 11.2% year over year to $4.7 billion. Operating profit climbed 29.2% to $819 million, while net profit surged 39% to $605 million. The company also continued its track record of strong free-cash-flow generation, churning out $221 million for the quarter, up 35% from the prior-year period. The quarterly dividend of $0.94 per share that it paid was 12% higher year over year. Impressively, since 2020, Trane has raised its dividend by more than 75%.

Management sees long-term tailwinds for its business, as the markets that it serves are growing faster than gross domestic product. Moreover, it’s introducing innovative products that have helped it to outgrow its sector and improve its margins. Trane Technologies intends to invest in new technologies and is guiding for its 2025 free cash flow to be greater than its adjusted net earnings. The business aims to keep growing its dividend payouts, and says it will repurchase shares when they fall below management’s calculated intrinsic value.

Like Dycom, Trane carries out periodic acquisitions to strengthen its business. The most recent was its purchase of Brainbox AI in January, which it will use to infuse AI into its building management solutions and improve its digital capabilities.

Roblox

Roblox (RBLX 1.53%) operates an online gaming platform that allows users to design games and features that others can play and make use of. Its virtual worlds feature a variety of genres, and players spend money in the form of Robux — a virtual in-game currency — to purchase items within them. The company’s revenue has been trending higher over the years as a growing number of users spend more time on its platform.

After a down year during 2022’s macroeconomic turmoil, the business returned to being free-cash-flow positive in 2023, and its free cash flow soared significantly higher in the following year.

Metric 2022 2023 2024
Revenue $2.23 billion $2.80 billion $3.60 billion
Gross profit $1.68 billion $2.15 billion $2.80 billion
Gross profit margin 75.4% 76.8% 77.8%
Free cash flow ($58 million) $124 million $641 million

Data source: Roblox. 

Roblox continued with its impressive financial performance for the first quarter of 2025. Revenue jumped nearly 30% year over year to $1.04 billion, while gross profit margin improved further from 77.7% in the prior-year period to 78.3%. Free cash flow also more than doubled year over year, from $191 million to $427 million. Average daily active users (DAUs) jumped 26% to 97.8 million, while the total number of hours engaged climbed 30% year over year to 21.7 billion.

There could be more to come for the gaming platform. Bookings — which largely come from users’ purchases of the Robux virtual currency — rose 31% to $1.2 billion, signaling that it should see higher revenue in the coming year. The company expects revenue of between $4.29 billion and $4.365 billion for 2025, which would be a 20.1% increase at its midpoint. Free cash flow is projected to be around $907.5 million at the midpoint of management’s guidance, which would be a 41.5% increase.

In April, Roblox launched rewarded video ads and collaborated with Alphabet‘s Google to scale up its immersive advertising slate. These video ads are inserted within Roblox games and experiences, and users who choose to view them are rewarded with in-game benefits, thus promoting higher engagement levels between ad agencies and the users they target. In the months ahead, Roblox will introduce more immersive ads onto Google’s ad manager, which will help to broaden its audience reach and allow it to target more potential users.

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Bitcoin’s 8% correction flushed leverage but set stage for short term turbulence https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-8-correction-flushed-leverage-but-set-stage-for-short-term-turbulence/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-8-correction-flushed-leverage-but-set-stage-for-short-term-turbulence/#respond Tue, 03 Jun 2025 00:08:25 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-8-correction-flushed-leverage-but-set-stage-for-short-term-turbulence/

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped nearly 8% from its May 22 all-time high, near $112,000, ending a 50% climb over 45 days that began on April 7, when BTC reached its yearly low at $74,441.20.

According to the June 2 “Bitfinex Alpha” report, a Court of Appeal decision reinstating disputed US import tariffs pushed 30-year Treasury yields above 5% for the first time since 2009 and triggered broad risk-off moves. 

Foreshadowing turbulence

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) highlighted this movement. Investors added $6.2 billion in Bitcoin exposure through these investment vehicles in the first four weeks of May while withdrawing $2.7 billion from gold ETFs, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. 

However, BlackRock’s IBIT registered its highest daily outflow in history, shedding nearly $431 million on May 30, according to Farside Investors’ data. The total outflows on the same day surpassed $616 million, the highest level since Feb. 26.

The report noted that realized gains accelerated last week, and the Relative Unrealised Profit indicator moved beyond its plus-two-standard-deviation band. 

Only 16% of Bitcoin’s trading history shows the gauge at such heights. Past occurrences coincided with brief spikes in volatility as holders crystallized gains. 

Elevated profitability increases sell pressure, forcing spot demand to absorb redistributed coins and maintain the uptrend.

Correction cooled overheating derivatives

At the same time, perpetual futures open interest swelled into Bitcoin’s all-time-high breakout, and now contracts as leveraged longs unwind. 

Options open interest peaked at $49.4 billion, about $6 billion above January’s high, before the May 29 expiry trimmed the figure to roughly $39 billion. 

The report linked the surge to expanding institutional activity, noting that large derivatives books can amplify price swings when macro liquidity tightens.

The report concluded that the pullback removed excess leverage, aligned supply with organic bids, and reset funding conditions across futures and options. This creates a healthier scenario for an upward movement.

However, on-chain metrics suggest turbulence in the short term, while Bitcoin trades just 6.5% below its all-time high.

Bitcoin Market Data

At the time of press 11:03 pm UTC on Jun. 2, 2025, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap and the price is down 0.52% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $2.09 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $44.53 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin ›

Crypto Market Summary

At the time of press 11:03 pm UTC on Jun. 2, 2025, the total crypto market is valued at at $3.29 trillion with a 24-hour volume of $102.01 billion. Bitcoin dominance is currently at 63.34%. Learn more about the crypto market ›

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Bitcoin short term realized volatility drops to 16% after early April spike https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-short-term-realized-volatility-drops-to-16-after-early-april-spike/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-short-term-realized-volatility-drops-to-16-after-early-april-spike/#respond Thu, 01 May 2025 01:05:17 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-short-term-realized-volatility-drops-to-16-after-early-april-spike/ Bitcoin’s volatility curve saw a sharp swing in April. Realized volatility measures the actual day-to-day variability in Bitcoin’s price over a set window instead of the market’s expectations. It is the annualized standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns, so it shows how turbulent trading has been. This lets analysts benchmark option prices against recorded moves, flags regime shifts earlier than price trends, and helps judge whether implied premiums or leverage levels look stretched.

bitcoin's realized volatility 3y
Bitcoin’s realized volatility from Jan. 1, 2022, to April 30 (Source: Checkonchain)

One-week realized volatility printed 94 % on April 12, the highest reading since Jan. 10, 2023. That spike coincided with a $3,124 intraday drop to $82,747 and a close at $85,270. Eight days later, the same gauge fell to 16 % as the price settled near $85,000 after a narrow $1,479 range. The market saw only one faster weekly 50-point contraction since October 2022.

Activity picked up again on April 23, as Bitcoin gained $2,785 intraday and closed at $93,715, pushing one-week realized volatility back to 54%. Greeks.live order-book snapshots show Deribit open interest at the $95,000 call strike rising to 13,000 contracts from 3,920 earlier that day, an extra $160 million notional, and the largest one-day build since spot ETFs launched in January. The front-month put-call ratio slid to 0.41, confirming traders were chasing upside rather than hedging exposure.

Two-week realized volatility eased in steps: 71% on April 12, 59% on April 20, 54% on April 23, and 40% on April 30. Meanwhile, one- and three-month realized held at 56%, while the six-month realized hit 54%. The flat medium-term profile means day-to-day swings calm quickly, yet traders with longer horizons still price mid-50% moves.

A 16% short leg against roughly 55% one-month implied leaves dealers collecting about 0.8 volatility points of theta per day. With realized this low, gamma risk is limited and market makers can hedge by selling spot into rallies. Upside usually pauses unless a fresh catalyst forces them to rebalance, which happened briefly on April 23 when ETF creations spiked.

bitcoin realized volatility
Graph showing Bitcoin’s 1-week, 2-week, and 1-month realized volatility from Mar. 28 to Apr. 30, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

Price action in the final week of April illustrates the carry trade. From April 25 to April 30, Bitcoin’s intraday range averaged about $1,900, one-week realized stayed at 16%, and one-month implied settled at 55%. Binance funding averaged 0.0066% per eight-hour window versus 0.039% on April 12. Liquidations fell to $78 million on April 30 from $485 million on April 12.

Six-month realized sitting at 54%, the same level as Jan. 1, shows the market still expects large swings heading into the Federal Reserve’s summer meetings and the US election. April, therefore, depicts a market willing to drift higher on steady ETF demand but quick to throttle activity when momentum fades.

Volatility spikes come in short bursts tied to large cash prints and fade faster than they did in 2024. That pattern suits carry strategies yet builds latent risk: the longer one-week volatility hovers near 15%, the sharper the reset once the next impulse hits.

The post Bitcoin short term realized volatility drops to 16% after early April spike appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Bitcoin Traders Eye Long Term BTC Accumulation by Selling Put Options https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-traders-eye-long-term-btc-accumulation-by-selling-put-options/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-traders-eye-long-term-btc-accumulation-by-selling-put-options/#respond Thu, 24 Apr 2025 09:15:16 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-traders-eye-long-term-btc-accumulation-by-selling-put-options/

Would you offer insurance when expecting low odds of a claim being made? Most likely, you would, while pocketing the premium without a second thought. Bitcoin (BTC) traders are doing something similar in the Deribit-listed BTC options market, hinting at bullish price expectations.

Recently, an increasing number of traders have been selling (writing) BTC put options, likened to providing insurance against price drops in exchange for a small upfront premium.

They are implementing this strategy in a cash-secured manner by holding a corresponding amount in stablecoins, ensuring they can buy BTC if the market declines and the put buyer decides to exercise his right to sell BTC at the predetermined higher price.

This strategy enables traders to collect premiums (paid by put buyers) while potentially accumulating bitcoin if the options are exercised. In other words, it’s the expression of a long-term bullish sentiment.

“There is a notable increase in cash-secured put selling using stablecoins—another sign of a more mature, long-term approach to BTC accumulation and a continued expression of bullish sentiment,” Deribit’s Asia Business Development Head Lin Chen told CoinDesk.

Chen said BTC holders are also selling higher strike call options to collect premiums and generate additional yield on top of their coin stash, which is weighing over Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures the 30-day BTC implied volatility. The index has dropped from 63 to 48 since the April 7 panic selling in BTC to $75K, according to data from the charting platform TradingView.

“We observe that investors remain long-term bullish on BTC, particularly among crypto-native “holders” who are willing to hold through market cycles,” Chen said.

Bitcoin’s price has risen to over $92,000 since the early month slide to $75,000, supposedly on the back of haven demand and renewed institutional adoption narrative.

The sharp price recovery has seen BTC options risk reversals reset to suggest a bias for call options across time frames, according to data source Amberdata. Over the past two days, traders have specifically snapped up calls at strike $95,000, $100,000 and $135,000 via the over-the-counter tech platform Paradigm. As of writing, the $100,000 strike call was the most popular option play on Deribit, with a notional open interest of over $1.6 billion.

$9 billion in delta

Just how important it is to track flows in the options market can be explained by the fact that the cumulative delta in Deribit’s BTC options and options tied to the U.S.-listed BlackRock spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and its peers was $9 billion as of Wednesday, according to data tracked by Volmex.

The data indicates heightened sensitivity of options to changes in BTC’s price, suggesting potential for price volatility.

Delta, one of the metrics used by sophisticated market participants to manage risk, measures how much the price (premium) of an options contract is likely to change in response to the $1 chance in the price of the underlying asset, in this case, BTC.

So, the cumulative delta of $9 billion represents the total sensitivity of all outstanding BTC and bitcoin ETF options to changes in the spot price. As of Wednesday, the total notional value of all outstanding options contracts was $43 billion.

Such large data or sensitivity to price swings in the underlying asset means market makers and traders actively engage in hedging strategies to mitigate their risks. Market makers, or those mandated to provide order book liquidity, are known to add to price volatility through their constant effort to maintain a net directional neutral exposure.

“Option deltas have increased to record levels as open interest grew and strike deltas shifted significantly. Option market makers are actively hedging this delta exposure, driven by substantial new positions and notable shifts in strike pricing,” Volmex noted on X.

According to Volmex, crypto-native options traders over Deribit are positioned more bullishly than those trading options tied to IBIT.

Deribit's BTC options and U.S.-listed spot ETF options: Cumulative open interest and delta. (Volmex)

Deribit’s BTC options and U.S.-listed spot ETF options: Cumulative open interest and delta. (Volmex)

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