Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Crypto Exchange Bitmex, offloaded more than $13 million in Crypto Holdings, including Ether (eth)Dan

and Pepe.

Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that Hayes has sold millions of these cryptocurrencies and moved to accumulate USDC, with Stablecoin accounting for more than 80% of the $27.9 million address associated with him.

The address sold for 2,373 ETH, worth $832 million, with 7.76 million ENAs for $462 million, and 38.8 billion Pepe for $414,700. In X’s post, he confirmed he was behind the address, pointing to a bearish scenario in the crypto space.

Hayes suggested that the market will be hit by the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Combined with a weaker than expected US employment report, he argued that no major economy is expanding credit quickly enough to boost nominal GDP. Against this background, he predicted that Bitcoin could “test $100k” and that Ether would revisit $3,000.

The crypto market, measured by the Coindesk 20 (CD20) index, has lost more than 7.5% of its value in the past week as hopes for interest rate reductions have faded. Bitcoin surpasses the wider market by a 3.9% drop, and is currently at $113,500.

Similarly, ether fell 6.5% over the same period and is currently trading at $3,500. Hopes for rate cuts blew on Friday, but they spiked later in the session after the labour market showed signs of weakness. Polymarket Traders is currently heavier with a 70% chance of interest rate reductions in September.

And the market is falling as tensions between the US and Russia escalate. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to move to “the right area” after threatening the US to agree to the ultimate ceasefire in Moscow.

Despite the sale, Hayes may remain bullish. In a post last month, he said the year-end target for Bitcoin prices was $250,000 and the ether rose to $10,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider market experienced a minor pullback after President Donald Trump announced the finalization of a new tariff arrangement with China, pending a formal sign-off by him and President Xi Jinping.

Trump announced on Truth Social that the accord grants the US “55% tariffs” on Chinese goods, versus 10% levied on US exports, and secures Chinese supplies of rare-earth magnets. 

He also said Washington would preserve access for Chinese students at American universities and that the “relationship is excellent.” The total market value of crypto assets fell 2%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.7%.

Bitcoin fell to a daily low of $108,331 following the news and was trading at $108,654.87 as of press time, down 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Notably, it is holding above the realized price of $106,900 registered by investors who bought the flagship crypto in the past 24 hours. 

According to a recent report by Glassnode, the next realized price levels are $105,200 for investors holding BTC for more than one month and $104,900 for investors holding between one week and one month.

Market read-through

Bitcoin and equities reversed early gains within minutes of the post, reflecting concern that the higher US levy could weigh on global demand even if a formal truce reduces headline tension.

The framework “reduces global uncertainty marginally” if enacted, according to a note shared by Bitfinex head of derivatives Jag Kooner.

Yet, he noted that “much of the market uncertainty has already been priced in.” Kooner expects a short burst of volatility, followed by mean reversion unless the deal delivers a clear liquidity impulse.

Furthermore, he tied June 11 price action to the morning release of May consumer price (CPI) data, arguing that tariff-related inflation has appeared in headline figures since last month and will likely peak by August. 

Kooner believes that the CPI is the real volatility trigger, adding that the 0.1% rise in core prices consolidates expectations for Federal Reserve easing and “creates a vacuum above $111,000 for Bitcoin.”

Correlation with S&P 500

The analyst also noted a 30-day correlation of 0.63 between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, describing BTC as “a liquidity barometer rather than a volatility hedge.”

This relationship leaves Bitcoin’s upside capped while equities hold a narrow range but could allow BTC to lead if stocks break higher on softer inflation data.

Kooner wrote:

“Without a direct stimulus mechanism, crypto markets are unlikely to see sustained moves upward.” 

However, he views pullbacks as buying opportunities because many coins remain in profit, and exchange balances are light. He projected that any breakout above $111,000 would be “spot driven, with ETF demand accelerating as the macro regime shifts toward easing.”

With no White House or Chinese government statement corroborating Trump’s post, investors now look to any official transcript of the tariff agreement and the June 12 producer price report for additional macroeconomic direction.

Kooner cautioned that until a detailed document emerges, markets must balance the constructive tone against the risk that higher levies could tighten financial conditions during the third quarter. 

Lastly, he highlighted that traders should monitor Chinese policy responses, supply chain commentary from US retailers, and Capitol Hill’s reaction to the proposed duty split.

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Solana (SOL) remains under pressure as macroeconomic headwinds—particularly renewed tariff concerns — rattle investor confidence.

The token is now hovering around $154.50 after establishing a tight trading range between $152.33 and $158.06, reflecting a 3.76% swing in the past 24 hours, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model.

Although higher lows had previously suggested resilience, SOL slipped from $156.74 to $154.86 in a single hour, breaking beneath its mid-April uptrend channel.

Derivatives data reflects bearish sentiment: open interest in SOL futures is down 2.47% to $7.19 billion, while long liquidations surged to $30.97 million, indicating pressure on leveraged positions. Short liquidations remain minimal, reinforcing the downside bias.

Still, institutional interest remains evident. Circle’s recent $250 million USDC mint on Solana has added liquidity and cemented the chain’s stablecoin leadership, with 34% of all stablecoin volume now routed through the network. Additionally, SOL Strategies’ $1 billion validator fund signals sustained long-term confidence in the protocol’s scalability, even as short-term price action falters.

Technical Analysis Highlights

• SOL established a 5.73-point range ($152.33–$158.06), indicating a 3.76% intraday swing.
• Earlier price action traced a clear ascending channel with solid support near $152.80, supported by heavy accumulation.SOL hit a session high of $158.06 during the 19:00 hour on strong volume, signaling earlier bullish momentum.
• A reversal unfolded in the early morning hours, with SOL falling from $156.74 to $154.86 on increased selling.Selling pressure peaked between 01:53–01:54, with over 74,000 units traded in a sharp burst.
• Short-term momentum turned bearish as lower highs and weaker volume defined the final trading stretch.As of writing, SOL is consolidating near $154.50, suggesting price stability but with downside risk if volume doesn’t improve.

External References

Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally last week collided headfirst with geopolitical turbulence, as U.S. President Donald Trump returned to making tariff threats, this time aimed at the European Union (EU).

The move injected volatility into a market fresh off its all-time high (ATH) after BTC came within a couple of hundred bucks of flying past $112,000. It has since wobbled, trading sideways around $109,500 as traders weigh the implications of escalating U.S.-EU trade tensions.

Tariff Whiplash

In early April, the price of BTC dropped to about $82,000 after Trump announced a raft of tariff measures impacting multiple U.S. trade partners. The president claimed the new taxes were needed to correct deficits between the United States and other countries. At the time, the EU was hit with a 20% tax on exports to the U.S.

Days later, Trump was at it again, hiking levies against Chinese imports to 104%. His actions pushed BTC prices even lower, with the cryptocurrency dipping to $74,600 and wrecking crypto trades worth more than $287 million.

However, after about 24 hours, the White House announced that more than 75 countries had contacted the U.S. for tariff negotiations, prompting Trump to lower the taxes to 10%, although products from China suffered an increase to 125%. The good news gave Bitcoin a leg up to around $82,000 from around $77,000.

As the first week of May closed, news emerged that the U.S. and China were planning high-level trade talks to iron out their differences. The reports stirred BTC into action, helping push it past $97,000 from a low of $94,000.

Soon after, it went past $100,000, buoyed by easing geopolitical tensions, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, and increased institutional demand. On May 22, the king cryptocurrency recorded a new ATH, with market watchers expecting it to move on to the next milestone quickly.

However, once again, Trump threw a spanner in the works, announcing a 50% tariff on EU goods on May 23 due to stalled negotiations. BTC promptly tumbled 4% to $107,500, dragging altcoins like Monero (XMR) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) down 5.5% and 3.5%, respectively.

Social media sentiment, tracked by analytics firm Santiment, mirrored the panic, with retail traders fleeing altcoins and “tariff” mentions spiking 300%, the largest surge since April’s market correction.

Yet the selloff proved short-lived. By May 25, the American president paused the tariffs, citing ongoing talks. BTC responded soon after, clawing back to $109,500 per CoinGecko data.

July 9: The Next Inflection Point

Santiment said in a May 27 blog post that this “threat-then-delay” tactic, a hallmark of Trump’s trade strategy, has kept markets oscillating between fear and cautious optimism.

For investors in crypto, where volatility is already baked into the landscape, this adds another layer of unpredictability,” noted analyst BrianQ “It’s hard to deny that digital assets are way more intertwined with global macro trends than they were a decade ago, back when crypto felt like a true free-for-all.”

With the next tariff decision now delayed until July 9, Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory is hostage to geopolitics. If Trump proceeds, the fallout could cascade across equities, currencies, and yes, crypto. Until then, digital asset traders are caught between technical optimism and political unpredictability.

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a healthy consolidation phase after last week’s record high of $111,880, but it still faces threats from significant profit-taking movements.

According to a May 26 “Bitfinex Alpha” report, strong spot demand and steady exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows lifted BTC more than 50% from early-April lows before President Donald Trump’s tariff threat on European Union imports triggered a risk-off move across global markets.

The macro shock and elevated leverage in perpetual futures sparked cascading liquidations, pushing the price below the $107,000 threshold within 36 hours.

However, this was a much-needed cooling movement. Futures funding flipped negative during the pullback, showing that traders quickly reduced directional exposure while open interest fell as forced sellers exited positions.

Profit-taking threatens momentum

Two seller groups drove the flow: dip buyers locking in substantial gains and previously underwater addresses exiting at breakeven.

Their combined activity created what the report described as an “overhead supply glut” that may stall price expansion without a corresponding uptick in inflows. Exchange data shows reduced incremental buying, while perpetual basis rates remain subdued after last week’s shakeout.

The analysis emphasizes that a period of sideways trading or mild retracement would reinforce market structure by flushing excess leverage and letting spot demand re-establish control.

Such consolidation has historically preceded fresh advances. Yet, the report cautioned that the depth of any pullback depends on macro events, including further clarity on the proposed tariffs and whether ETF allocations resume at a recent clip.

Futures reset sets trading range

Amid the macro uncertainty and profit-taking risks, the report expects Bitcoin to oscillate between last week’s $106,000 intraday low and the $111,000 area until fresh spot demand absorbs overhead supply or a deeper reset draws buyers lower.

Seven weekly green candles illustrate persistent upward momentum, the longest streak since October 2023. However, the report noted that such moves often cool as leverage normalizes.

On-chain data corroborate the slowdown. The cost basis for short-term holders (STH Realized Price) climbed to $95,164, and selling accelerated once the market reclaimed that level.

Short-term holders booked $11.4 billion of profit over the past 30 days, compared with just $1.2 billion in the prior month. Realized profit peaked at $747 million a day, a level exceeded on only about 8% of trading sessions in Bitcoin’s history.

The report then warned that the STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio surged to territory typically associated with late-stage rallies. In this stage, heavy distribution could cap the upside if new capital does not arrive to absorb it.

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